Fantasy · Week 4 · 2026

Win your week. Start the right players.

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

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Early season: only 3 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.

  1. 1BUFJosh AllenQB · BUFvsNENEMUST STARTBUF expected to score ~28, a strong spot24.913–39 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 20.3 a game

    This week's matchup

    BUFBUFvsNENENEGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    BUF favored by 7
    Game total
    49.5
    NE vs QBs
    15% fewer points

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 24.9 points, #1 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
    • BUF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Concern: NE's defense has allowed 15% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
    • Averaging 29 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 24.9 · High confidence · Full player page →

  2. 2SFBrock Purdy▲QB · SFvsDENDENMUST STARTScored 31.3 last game, typical 16.120.711–33 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 16.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    SFSFvsDENDENDENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    SF favored by 3
    Game total
    47.5
    DEN vs QBs
    11% fewer points

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 20.7 points, #2 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 31.3 points last game against a typical 16.1 (trending up).
    • SF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 28 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 20.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  3. 3KCPatrick MahomesQB · KC@LVLVMUST STARTKC expected to score ~26, a strong spot20.511–32 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 17.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    KCKC@LVLVLVGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~26 pts
    Vegas line
    KC favored by 4.5
    Game total
    47.5
    LV vs QBs
    3% fewer points

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 20.5 points, #3 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
    • KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 33 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 20.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

  4. 4DETJared GoffQB · DET@CARCARMUST STARTDET expected to score ~27, a strong spot19.610–31 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 15.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    DETDET@CARCARCARGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~27 pts
    Vegas line
    DET favored by 3.5
    Game total
    50.5
    CAR vs QBs
    8% fewer points

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 19.6 points, #4 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
    • DET's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 36 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 19.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  5. 5LAMatthew StaffordQB · LA@PHIPHIMUST STARTProjected 19.1 · #5 among QBs19.110–30 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 18.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    LALA@PHIPHIPHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    LA favored by 3.5
    Game total
    42.5
    PHI vs QBs
    2% fewer points
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 19.1 points, #5 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
    • Averaging 37 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 19.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  6. 6CARBryce YoungQB · CARvsDETDETMUST STARTDET allow 29% more points to QBs19.110–30 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    CARCARvsDETDETDETGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    CAR underdogs by 3.5
    Game total
    50.5
    DET vs QBs
    29% more points

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 19.1 points, #6 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
    • DET's defense has allowed 29% more points to QBs than the league average.
    • Averaging 40 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 19.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  7. 7NOTyler Shough▲QB · NOvsATLATLSTARTScored 23.8 last game, typical 12.218.910–30 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 12.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    NONOvsATLATLATLGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    NO favored by 2.5
    Game total
    47.5
    ATL vs QBs
    2% more points

    Why we say start

    • Projected 18.9 points, #7 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 23.8 points last game against a typical 12.2 (trending up).
    • NO's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 44 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 18.9 · High confidence · Full player page →

  8. 8JAXTrevor LawrenceQB · JAX@CINCINSTARTProjected 18.3 · #8 among QBs18.310–29 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 17.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    JAXJAX@CINCINCINGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    JAX underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    51.5
    CIN vs QBs
    9% more points

    Why we say start

    • Projected 18.3 points, #8 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Averaging 27 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 18.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  9. 9DALDak PrescottQB · DAL@HOUHOUSTARTProjected 18.0 · #9 among QBs18.09–28 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 16.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    DALDAL@HOUHOUHOUGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    DAL underdogs by 3
    Game total
    48.5
    HOU vs QBs
    11% fewer points
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say start

    • Projected 18.0 points, #9 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Averaging 35 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 18.0 · High confidence · Full player page →

  10. 10BALLamar Jackson▲QB · BALvsTENTENSTARTScored 20.4 last game, typical 14.317.99–28 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 14.3 a game

    This week's matchup

    BALBALvsTENTENTENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~27 pts
    Vegas line
    BAL favored by 11.5
    Game total
    42.5
    TEN vs QBs
    1% more points

    Why we say start

    • Projected 17.9 points, #10 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 20.4 points last game against a typical 14.3 (trending up).
    • BAL's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 25 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 17.9 · High confidence · Full player page →

  11. 11HOUC.J. StroudQB · HOUvsDALDALSTARTDAL allow 41% more points to QBs16.59–26 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 13.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    HOUHOUvsDALDALDALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~26 pts
    Vegas line
    HOU favored by 3
    Game total
    48.5
    DAL vs QBs
    41% more points
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say start

    • Projected 16.5 points, #11 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • DAL's defense has allowed 41% more points to QBs than the league average.
    • HOU's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 40 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 16.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

  12. 12DENBo Nix▲QB · DEN@SFSFSTARTScored 24.1 last game, typical 1616.08–25 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 16.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    DENDEN@SFSFSFGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    DEN underdogs by 3
    Game total
    47.5
    SF vs QBs
    1% fewer points

    Why we say start

    • Projected 16.0 points, #12 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 24.1 points last game against a typical 16 (trending up).
    • Averaging 31 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 16.0 · High confidence · Full player page →

  13. 13ARIJacoby Brissett▲QB · ARI@NYGNYGBENCHProjected 16.0 · 0.0 behind #1216.08–25 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 14.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    ARIARI@NYGNYGNYGGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    ARI favored by 2.5
    Game total
    44.5
    NYG vs QBs
    8% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 16.0 points, #13 among QBs this week, 0.0 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • Upside: Scored 25.6 points last game against a typical 14.2 (trending up).
    • Averaging 39 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 16.0 · High confidence · Full player page →

  14. 14CINJoe Burrow▲QB · CINvsJAXJAXBENCHJAX allow 12% fewer points to QBs15.88–25 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 13.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    CINCINvsJAXJAXJAXGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~27 pts
    Vegas line
    CIN favored by 2.5
    Game total
    51.5
    JAX vs QBs
    12% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 15.8 points, #14 among QBs this week, 0.2 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • JAX's defense has allowed 12% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
    • Upside: Scored 22.6 points last game against a typical 13.4 (trending up).
    • Averaging 34 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 15.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  15. 15GBJordan Love▲QB · GB@TBTBBENCHProjected 15.6 · 0.4 behind #1215.68–25 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 13.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    GBGB@TBTBTBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    GB favored by 3
    Game total
    38.5
    TB vs QBs
    10% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 15.6 points, #15 among QBs this week, 0.4 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • Upside: Scored 18.5 points last game against a typical 13.8 (trending up).
    • Averaging 41 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 15.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  16. 16PHIJalen HurtsQB · PHIvsLALABENCHPHI expected to score only ~20, a tough spot15.28–24 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 16.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    PHIPHIvsLALALAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    PHI underdogs by 3.5
    Game total
    42.5
    LA vs QBs
    7% fewer points
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 15.2 points, #16 among QBs this week, 0.8 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • PHI's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Averaging 29 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 15.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  17. 17INDDaniel Jones▼QB · IND@WASWASBENCHScored 7.9 last game, typical 15.114.88–23 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 15.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    INDIND@WASWASWASGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~26 pts
    Vegas line
    IND favored by 4.5
    Game total
    46.5
    WAS vs QBs
    31% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 14.8 points, #17 among QBs this week, 1.2 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • Scored 7.9 points last game against a typical 15.1 (trending down).
    • Upside: WAS's defense has allowed 31% more points to QBs than the league average.
    • Averaging 33 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 14.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  18. 18NYJGeno Smith▲QB · NYJ@CHICHIBENCHProjected 13.9 · 2.1 behind #1213.97–22 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    NYJNYJ@CHICHICHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    NYJ underdogs by 3.5
    Game total
    43.5
    CHI vs QBs
    8% more points
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 13.9 points, #18 among QBs this week, 2.1 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • Upside: Scored 26 points last game against a typical 10.2 (trending up).
    • Averaging 34 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 13.9 · High confidence · Full player page →

  19. 19CLEDeshaun Watson▲QB · CLEvsPITPITBENCHCLE expected to score only ~18, a tough spot12.9scored · proj 13.1

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    CLECLEvsPITPITPITGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~18 pts
    Vegas line
    CLE underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    38.5
    PIT vs QBs
    3% more points
    Wind
    11 mph

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 13.1 points, #19 among QBs this week, 2.9 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • CLE's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Upside: Scored 20.3 points last game against a typical 10.5 (trending up).
    • Averaging 27 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 13.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  20. 20NEDrake Maye▼QB · NE@BUFBUFBENCHScored 3.8 last game, typical 18.512.77–20 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 18.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    NENE@BUFBUFBUFGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    NE underdogs by 7
    Game total
    49.5
    BUF vs QBs
    10% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 12.7 points, #20 among QBs this week, 3.3 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • Scored 3.8 points last game against a typical 18.5 (trending down).
    • Averaging 27 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 12.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  21. 21SEASam Darnold▲QB · SEAvsLACLACBENCHLAC allow 16% fewer points to QBs12.46–20 range

    Recent form

    W1W3

    Dashed line: the usual 12.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    SEASEAvsLACLACLACGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    SEA favored by 7
    Game total
    42.5
    LAC vs QBs
    16% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 12.4 points, #21 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • LAC's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
    • Upside: Scored 27.7 points last game against a typical 12.4 (trending up).
    • Averaging 24 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 12.4 · High confidence · Full player page →

  22. 22LVKirk Cousins▲QB · LVvsKCKCBENCHKC allow 19% fewer points to QBs12.26–19 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 8.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    LVLVvsKCKCKCGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    LV underdogs by 4.5
    Game total
    47.5
    KC vs QBs
    19% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 12.2 points, #22 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • KC's defense has allowed 19% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
    • Upside: Scored 22.2 points last game against a typical 8.6 (trending up).
    • Averaging 31 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 12.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  23. 23WASMarcus Mariota▲QB · WASvsINDINDBENCHProjected 12.1 · #23 among QBs12.16–19 range

    Recent form

    W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    WASWASvsINDINDINDGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    WAS underdogs by 4.5
    Game total
    46.5
    IND vs QBs
    10% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 12.1 points, #23 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • Upside: Moves up to No. 1 QB on the depth chart with a teammate above him out.
    • Averaging 24 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 12.1 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  24. 24LACJustin HerbertQB · LAC@SEASEABENCHSEA allow 18% fewer points to QBs11.66–18 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 15.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    LACLAC@SEASEASEAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~18 pts
    Vegas line
    LAC underdogs by 7
    Game total
    42.5
    SEA vs QBs
    18% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 11.6 points, #24 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • SEA's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
    • LAC's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Averaging 29 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 11.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  25. 25PITAaron Rodgers▲QB · PIT@CLECLEBENCHCLE allow 13% fewer points to QBs22.0scored · proj 11.6

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 12.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    PITPIT@CLECLECLEGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    PIT favored by 2.5
    Game total
    38.5
    CLE vs QBs
    13% fewer points
    Wind
    11 mph

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 11.6 points, #25 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • CLE's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
    • Upside: Scored 22.7 points last game against a typical 12.6 (trending up).
    • Averaging 38 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 11.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  26. 26ATLMichael Penix Jr.QB · ATL@NONOBENCHProjected 10.9 · #26 among QBs10.96–17 range

    Recent form

    W3

    Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    ATLATL@NONONOGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    ATL underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    47.5
    NO vs QBs
    9% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 10.9 points, #26 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • Averaging 25 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 10.9 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  27. 27MINKyler MurrayQB · MINvsMIAMIABENCHProjected 10.7 · #27 among QBs10.76–17 range

    Recent form

    W1W3

    Dashed line: the usual 11.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    MINMINvsMIAMIAMIAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    MIN favored by 10
    Game total
    38.5
    MIA vs QBs
    12% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 10.7 points, #27 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • Averaging 17 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 10.7 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  28. 28TENCam WardQB · TEN@BALBALBENCHTEN expected to score only ~16, a tough spot10.76–17 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 9.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    TENTEN@BALBALBALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~16 pts
    Vegas line
    TEN underdogs by 11.5
    Game total
    42.5
    BAL vs QBs
    5% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 10.7 points, #28 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • TEN's offense is expected to score only about 16 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Averaging 29 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 10.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  29. 29CHICase Keenum▲QB · CHIvsNYJNYJBENCHProjected 10.3 · #29 among QBs10.35–16 range

    Recent form

    W3

    Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    CHICHIvsNYJNYJNYJGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    CHI favored by 3.5
    Game total
    43.5
    NYJ vs QBs
    12% more points
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 10.3 points, #29 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • Upside: Scored 24.5 points last game against a typical 10.5 (trending up).
    • Averaging 34 pass attempts a game.
    • No. 2 QB on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.

    Projection 10.3 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  30. 30KCJustin FieldsQB · KC@LVLVBENCHProjected 9.8 · #30 among QBs9.85–15 range

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 13.0 a game.

    This week's matchup

    KCKC@LVLVLVGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~26 pts
    Vegas line
    KC favored by 4.5
    Game total
    47.5
    LV vs QBs
    3% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 9.8 points, #30 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • Upside: KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaged last season 23 pass attempts a game.
    • No. 2 QB on the depth chart.

    Projection 9.8 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  31. 31MIAMalik WillisQB · MIA@MINMINBENCHMIN allow 29% fewer points to QBs8.75–14 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    MIAMIA@MINMINMINGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~14 pts
    Vegas line
    MIA underdogs by 10
    Game total
    38.5
    MIN vs QBs
    29% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 8.7 points, #31 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • MIN's defense has allowed 29% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
    • MIA's offense is expected to score only about 14 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Averaging 29 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 8.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  32. 32MINCarson WentzQB · MINvsMIAMIABENCHProjected 8.4 · #32 among QBs8.44–13 range

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 10.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    MINMINvsMIAMIAMIAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    MIN favored by 10
    Game total
    38.5
    MIA vs QBs
    12% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 8.4 points, #32 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • Averaging 20 pass attempts a game.
    • No. 2 QB on the depth chart.

    Projection 8.4 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  33. –NYGJaxson DartIR▼QB · NYGvsARIARIOUTOn injured reserve — knee (Meniscus) injury0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 15.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    NYGNYGvsARIARIARIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    NYG underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    44.5
    ARI vs QBs
    11% more points

    Why we say out

    • On injured reserve — knee (Meniscus) injury.
    • Averaging 17 pass attempts a game.
    • No. 3 QB on the depth chart.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  34. –TBBaker MayfieldOUTQB · TBvsGBGBOUTOut — thumb injury0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 14.3 a game

    This week's matchup

    TBTBvsGBGBGBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~18 pts
    Vegas line
    TB underdogs by 3
    Game total
    38.5
    GB vs QBs
    7% fewer points

    Why we say out

    • Out — thumb injury.
    • Averaging 32 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  35. –CLEDillon GabrielIRQB · CLEvsPITPITOUTOn injured reserve0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 5.8 a game.

    This week's matchup

    CLECLEvsPITPITPITGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~18 pts
    Vegas line
    CLE underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    38.5
    PIT vs QBs
    3% more points
    Wind
    11 mph

    Why we say out

    • On injured reserve.
    • Averaged last season 19 pass attempts a game.
    • No. 4 QB on the depth chart.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  36. –CHICaleb WilliamsOUT▼QB · CHIvsNYJNYJOUTOut — hamstring injury0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 16.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    CHICHIvsNYJNYJNYJGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    CHI favored by 3.5
    Game total
    43.5
    NYJ vs QBs
    12% more points
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say out

    • Out — hamstring injury.
    • Averaging 28 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  37. –BALSkylar ThompsonIRQB · BALvsTENTENOUTOn injured reserve0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.1 a game.

    This week's matchup

    BALBALvsTENTENTENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~27 pts
    Vegas line
    BAL favored by 11.5
    Game total
    42.5
    TEN vs QBs
    1% more points

    Why we say out

    • On injured reserve.
    • No. 4 QB on the depth chart.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  38. –JAXCarter BradleyIRQB · JAX@CINCINOUTOn injured reserve0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.1 a game.

    This week's matchup

    JAXJAX@CINCINCINGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    JAX underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    51.5
    CIN vs QBs
    9% more points

    Why we say out

    • On injured reserve.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  39. –LAMatthew CaldwellIRQB · LA@PHIPHIOUTOn injured reserve0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.1 a game.

    This week's matchup

    LALA@PHIPHIPHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    LA favored by 3.5
    Game total
    42.5
    PHI vs QBs
    2% fewer points
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say out

    • On injured reserve.
    • No. 4 QB on the depth chart.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  40. –KCChris OladokunIRQB · KC@LVLVOUTOn injured reserve0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.2 a game.

    This week's matchup

    KCKC@LVLVLVGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~26 pts
    Vegas line
    KC favored by 4.5
    Game total
    47.5
    LV vs QBs
    3% fewer points

    Why we say out

    • On injured reserve.
    • Averaged last season 18 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  41. –WASJayden DanielsOUTQB · WASvsINDINDOUTOut — elbow injury0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 12.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    WASWASvsINDINDINDGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    WAS underdogs by 4.5
    Game total
    46.5
    IND vs QBs
    10% more points

    Why we say out

    • Out — elbow injury.
    • Averaging 26 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  42. –HOUGraham MertzIRQB · HOUvsDALDALOUTOn injured reserve0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.1 a game.

    This week's matchup

    HOUHOUvsDALDALDALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~26 pts
    Vegas line
    HOU favored by 3
    Game total
    48.5
    DAL vs QBs
    41% more points
    Wind
    10 mph

    Why we say out

    • On injured reserve.
    • No. 3 QB on the depth chart.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

How we rank

Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.

We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.

The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.

Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.