46.3

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Tyler Shough playing this week?

No injury designation

Tyler Shough has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game against the Atlanta Falcons.

Kickoff: Mon, Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:19 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

START#7 QB this weekHigh confidence

Start. Scored 23.8 points last game against a typical 12.2 (trending up).

Why we say start

  • Projected 18.9 points, #7 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
  • Scored 23.8 points last game against a typical 12.2 (trending up).
  • NO's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
  • Averaging 44 pass attempts a game.

Projected points

18.9

Likely range 10–30: the middle half of outcomes

vs ATL · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 12.2 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
NO favored by 2.5
Game total
47.5
ATL vs QBs
2% more points

All week 4 quarterback rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

27

Height

6'5"

Weight

219 lb

College

Louisville; Texas Tech; Oregon

Experience

1 season

Draft

2025 · Pick #40 (NO)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 46.3?

A middle-of-the-pack grade, 15th of 27 QBs. The one thing that lifted it was accurate passing: completion percentage over expected ranked 8th. His efficiency numbers were near average, so nothing pushed the grade further either way. This is based on 142 dropbacks over 3 games.

Lifting the grade

  • Completion percentage over expected was +4.5 points, 8th of 27 QBs.
  • Week 2 vs BAL, 3rd and 13: a 25-yard pass to Johnson, worth +3.5 expected points.
  • Week 2 vs BAL, 3rd and 13: a 29-yard pass to Vele, also +3.5 expected points.

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 4. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.020

Success rate

50%

WPA (sum)

0.06

Opponent adj.

-0.016

Plays graded

142

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Time to throw
2.66s
Aggressiveness
14.4%
CPOE
+3.5%
Expected comp %
65.4%
Completed air yds
6.2
Intended air yds
7.5
Air yds differential
-1.3
Air yds to sticks
-1.2
WeekTime to throwAggressivenessCPOE
12.60s14.3%-0.5%
22.73s20.6%+12.1%
32.68s9.5%+1.9%
What do these mean?
Time to throw:
Average seconds from snap to release.
Aggressiveness:
Share of throws into tight coverage, with a defender within one yard of the receiver.
CPOE:
Completion percentage over expected. Compares actual completions to what the difficulty of each throw predicts.
Expected comp %:
The completion percentage the throws would be expected to produce.
Completed air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on completions.
Intended air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on all attempts.
Air yds differential:
Completed air yards minus intended air yards. Negative means completions come shorter than the throws attempted.
Air yds to sticks:
How far the average throw travels past (or short of) the first-down marker.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

Cmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games91/13291783106.294.569.4232100%0%46.3

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameCmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · LV29/42255412-3.634.423.874100%0%60.9
Wk 2 · BAL27/3425210310.9314.122.468100%0%88.3
Wk 1 · DET35/56410325-1.01-1.223.290100%0%39.1