2026 NFL · Through week 4 · Updated every week
The box score lies
Fantasy points reward volume and touchdowns. Our grade judges every play: what it was worth against what a typical play in that spot is worth, adjusted for the defense. Here is where the two disagree most among the 162 qualified quarterbacks, backs, receivers and tight ends with three or more games.
Trey McBride (ARI) scores like the best tight end in fantasy, at 17.3 PPR points a game, but grades 12th of 22 qualified tight ends play by play.
Mike Evans (SF) is the top-graded receiver in the NFL, yet only 23rd at his position in fantasy points per game.
The players the box score flatters average 0.81 touchdowns a game; the ones it hides average 0.68. Touchdowns and volume move fantasy points; the grade asks how well each play went.
The box score flatters them
Fantasy starters whose play-by-play grade ranks far below their points per game.
| Player | Fantasy pts/game | Fantasy rank | Grade | Grade rank | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBrideTE, ARI | 17.3 | TE1 | 45.7 | 12th of 22 | 2 |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR, DET | 22.8 | WR3 | 40.5 | 37th of 61 | 5 |
| Derrick HenryRB, BAL | 22.7 | RB4 | 54.8 | 24th of 52 | 7 |
| Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG | 13.3 | TE5 | 19.6 | 18th of 22 | 2 |
| Christian WatsonWR, GB | 19.3 | WR6 | 51.6 | 30th of 61 | 4 |
| Davante AdamsWR, LA | 18.3 | WR8 | 54.8 | 28th of 61 | 2 |
| Tyler WarrenTE, IND | 12.1 | TE8 | 10.9 | 20th of 22 | 2 |
| Ashton JeantyRB, LV | 18.5 | RB10 | 10.6 | 47th of 52 | 2 |
The box score hides them
Top-graded players whose fantasy points per game rank far lower.
| Player | Fantasy pts/game | Fantasy rank | Grade | Grade rank | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EvansWR, SF | 12.6 | WR23 | 99.2 | 1st of 61 | 2 |
| Brian RobinsonRB, ATL | 12.1 | RB21 | 99.0 | 1st of 52 | 4 |
| Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX | 16.3 | QB14 | 98.1 | 1st of 27 | 8 |
| Keon ColemanWR, BUF | 10.4 | WR33 | 96.0 | 3rd of 61 | 1 |
| Geno SmithQB, NYJ | 14.9 | QB18 | 87.0 | 4th of 27 | 5 |
| Drake LondonWR, ATL | 14.3 | WR17 | 94.4 | 4th of 61 | 0 |
| Kalif RaymondWR, CHI | 12.3 | WR24 | 91.3 | 6th of 61 | 1 |
| RJ HarveyRB, DEN | 12.7 | RB19 | 87.5 | 7th of 52 | 0 |
How to read this
This is not a fantasy projection. In our tests on five past seasons, points per game so far predicted a player's rest-of-season fantasy points better than his grade did. Volume, meaning targets and carries, is steady from week to week, and that is what fantasy points follow. A grade measures what a player did with his chances, which is a different question: what the grade predicts, and what it doesn't.
Early-season grades are noisy, most of all for running backs and receivers. A few games is a small sample, and a gap here is a question worth asking, not a verdict.
Ranks are within each position, among players who qualify for the season leaderboards (enough dropbacks, touches or targets per team game). Fantasy points are full-PPR. Stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0). See every grade.
Using these numbers?
You're welcome to quote them in articles, newsletters and podcasts. Please link to this page; it updates every week.
StatGrades, "The Box Score Lies" (2026, through week 4), https://statgrades.com/box-score-lies