94.4

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Geno Smith playing this week?

No injury designation

Geno Smith has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the Chicago Bears.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:16 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

Ask StatGrades about Geno Smith

Ask your own question

Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

BENCH#18 QB this weekHigh confidence

Bench. Projected 13.9 points, 2.1 behind #12, the last one we'd start.

Why we say bench

  • Projected 13.9 points, #18 among QBs this week, 2.1 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
  • Upside: Scored 26 points last game against a typical 10.2 (trending up).
  • Averaging 34 pass attempts a game.

Projected points

13.9

Likely range 7–22: the middle half of outcomes

@ CHI · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~20 pts
Vegas line
NYJ underdogs by 3.5
Game total
43.5
CHI vs QBs
8% more points

All week 4 quarterback rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

35

Height

6'3"

Weight

221 lb

College

West Virginia

Experience

13 seasons

Draft

2013 · Pick #39 (NYJ)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 94.4?

The grade is driven by accuracy: his completion percentage over expected is the best among the 27 qualifying QBs. His per-play scoring, success rate and win probability numbers were solid but close to average impact. Defenses faced were easier than average, which trimmed the grade slightly.

Lifting the grade

  • Completion percentage over expected of +10.9 points ranks 1st of 27 and lifted the grade a lot.
  • Week 3 at DET, 4th and 6: a deep right pass to Wilson for 22 yards was worth +4.7 expected points.
  • Week 2 vs GB, 3rd and 12: a short right pass to Hall gained 43 yards, worth +4.4 expected points.

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.223

Success rate

50%

WPA (sum)

0.70

Opponent adj.

-0.044

Plays graded

112

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Time to throw
2.94s
Aggressiveness
18.6%
CPOE
+12.9%
Expected comp %
62.6%
Completed air yds
5.3
Intended air yds
7.6
Air yds differential
-2.3
Air yds to sticks
-2.1
WeekTime to throwAggressivenessCPOE
13.04s12.5%+9.4%
22.93s14.6%+7.5%
32.89s27.0%+21.1%
What do these mean?
Time to throw:
Average seconds from snap to release.
Aggressiveness:
Share of throws into tight coverage, with a defender within one yard of the receiver.
CPOE:
Completion percentage over expected. Compares actual completions to what the difficulty of each throw predicts.
Expected comp %:
The completion percentage the throws would be expected to produce.
Completed air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on completions.
Intended air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on all attempts.
Air yds differential:
Completed air yards minus intended air yards. Negative means completions come shorter than the throws attempted.
Air yds to sticks:
How far the average throw travels past (or short of) the first-down marker.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

Cmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games77/10278340924.9210.750.9207100%0%94.4

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameCmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · DET31/3732130510.8814.826.066100%0%95.3
Wk 2 · GB27/412471044.285.915.674100%0%51.7
Wk 1 · TEN19/242150009.7512.89.367100%0%89.1