64.8

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Patrick Mahomes playing this week?

No injury designation

Official practice report (week 4): Full practice, knee injury.

Patrick Mahomes has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the Las Vegas Raiders.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:15 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

MUST START#3 QB this weekHigh confidence

Must start. KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.

Why we say must start

  • Projected 20.6 points, #3 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
  • KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
  • Averaging 33 pass attempts a game.

Projected points

20.6

Likely range 11–33: the middle half of outcomes

@ LV · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 17.9 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
KC favored by 4.5
Game total
47.5
LV vs QBs
3% fewer points

All week 4 quarterback rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

31

Height

6'2"

Weight

225 lb

College

Texas Tech

Experience

9 seasons

Draft

2017 · Pick #10 (KC)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 64.8?

This grade lands a bit above average mainly because he completed passes at a higher rate than expected for his throws (+3.2 points), while his other numbers were all close to typical for a starting QB. A rough week 1 pulled the overall picture down before he bounced back strongly by week 3.

Lifting the grade

  • Completion percentage over expected: +3.2 points, 18th of 37 QBs
  • Week 1 deep pass to Kelce for 59 yards on 3rd and 6 (+5.1 expected points)
  • Week 2 deep pass to Thornton for 45 yards on 3rd and 11 (+5.1 expected points)

Holding it back

  • Week 1 interception intended for Worthy, returned 24 yards (-5.8 expected points)
  • Week 3 interception intended for Rice (-3.6 expected points)
  • Week 1 sack for an 8-yard loss on 3rd and 4 (-2.2 expected points)

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.236

Success rate

52%

WPA (sum)

0.45

Opponent adj.

-0.037

Plays graded

102

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Time to throw
2.60s
Aggressiveness
5.1%
CPOE
-0.1%
Expected comp %
68.4%
Completed air yds
4.4
Intended air yds
5.8
Air yds differential
-1.4
Air yds to sticks
-2.7
WeekTime to throwAggressivenessCPOE
12.27s3.7%-12.3%
22.79s4.3%+1.8%
32.61s8.3%+10.2%
What do these mean?
Time to throw:
Average seconds from snap to release.
Aggressiveness:
Share of throws into tight coverage, with a defender within one yard of the receiver.
CPOE:
Completion percentage over expected. Compares actual completions to what the difficulty of each throw predicts.
Expected comp %:
The completion percentage the throws would be expected to produce.
Completed air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on completions.
Intended air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on all attempts.
Air yds differential:
Completed air yards minus intended air yards. Negative means completions come shorter than the throws attempted.
Air yds to sticks:
How far the average throw travels past (or short of) the first-down marker.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

Cmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games67/9881272424.053.166.6201100%0%64.8

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameCmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · MIA20/2424621012.9218.715.952100%0%98.4
Wk 2 · IND32/4738230213.423.729.080100%0%55.0
Wk 1 · DEN15/27184212-2.30-11.921.769100%0%7.8