Fantasy · Week 9 · Start or sit
Patrick Mahomes Or Trevor Lawrence?
Our week 9 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (17.6 vs 18.6). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Trevor Lawrence (52%).
Patrick Mahomes outscores Trevor Lawrence 48% of the time; Trevor Lawrence 52%.
QB, KC vs NYJ
17.6 projected PPR points
Likely range 9–28 · QB7 this week · Start
Start. KC's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
QB, JAX at BAL
18.6 projected PPR points
Likely range 10–29 · QB5 this week · Must start
Must start. Projected 18.6 points, #5 among QBs this week.
Side by side
| Patrick Mahomes | Trevor Lawrence | |
|---|---|---|
| 17.6 | Projected points | 18.6 |
| 9.2 | Floor (a bad day) | 9.7 |
| 27.7 | Ceiling (a big day) | 29.3 |
| NYJ +15% | Matchup | BAL +9% |
| ~29 pts | Team's expected score | ~25 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Hot ▲ | Recent form | Steady |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.