Fantasy · Week 9 · Start or sit
Jared Goff Or Trevor Lawrence?
Our week 9 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (18.4 vs 18.6). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Trevor Lawrence (50%).
Jared Goff outscores Trevor Lawrence 50% of the time; Trevor Lawrence 50%.
QB, DET at MIA
18.4 projected PPR points
Likely range 10–29 · QB6 this week · Must start
Must start. DET's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
QB, JAX at BAL
18.6 projected PPR points
Likely range 10–29 · QB5 this week · Must start
Must start. Projected 18.6 points, #5 among QBs this week.
Side by side
| Jared Goff | Trevor Lawrence | |
|---|---|---|
| 18.4 | Projected points | 18.6 |
| 9.6 | Floor (a bad day) | 9.7 |
| 29.0 | Ceiling (a big day) | 29.3 |
| MIA +16% | Matchup | BAL +9% |
| ~29 pts | Team's expected score | ~25 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Cold ▼ | Recent form | Steady |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.