72.2

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Jared Goff playing this week?

No injury designation

Jared Goff has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the Carolina Panthers.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 8:20 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:21 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

MUST START#4 QB this weekHigh confidence

Must start. DET's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.

Why we say must start

  • Projected 19.6 points, #4 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
  • DET's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
  • Averaging 36 pass attempts a game.

Projected points

19.6

Likely range 10–31: the middle half of outcomes

@ CAR · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 15.6 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
DET favored by 3.5
Game total
50.5
CAR vs QBs
8% fewer points

All week 4 quarterback rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

31

Height

6'4"

Weight

217 lb

College

California

Experience

10 seasons

Draft

2016 · Pick #1 (LAR)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 72.2?

Goff's 70.4 grade is driven mainly by strong EPA per dropback (+0.298, 8th of 37), even against tougher-than-average defenses. Everything else, completion percentage, success rate, and win probability added, was roughly average and didn't move the needle much. A rocky week 1 dragged early plays down before he improved.

Lifting the grade

  • EPA per dropback ranks 8th of 37 QBs, the main driver of the grade
  • Deep touchdown pass to St. Brown for 27 yards in week 2 vs Buffalo (+3.5 expected points)
  • 49-yard completion to TeSlaa in week 3 vs the Jets (+3.1 expected points)

Holding it back

  • A short pass to Gibbs in week 1 vs New Orleans lost 5.2 expected points after a challenged non-down ruling
  • A fumble on a sack in week 2 vs Buffalo cost 2.5 expected points
  • A sack in week 3 vs the Jets cost another 2.5 expected points

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.271

Success rate

53%

WPA (sum)

0.65

Opponent adj.

0.026

Plays graded

116

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Time to throw
2.82s
Aggressiveness
22.0%
CPOE
+3.7%
Expected comp %
66.9%
Completed air yds
5.9
Intended air yds
7.2
Air yds differential
-1.3
Air yds to sticks
-1.7
WeekTime to throwAggressivenessCPOE
12.66s15.4%-3.2%
22.94s28.9%+6.7%
32.89s21.9%+8.7%
What do these mean?
Time to throw:
Average seconds from snap to release.
Aggressiveness:
Share of throws into tight coverage, with a defender within one yard of the receiver.
CPOE:
Completion percentage over expected. Compares actual completions to what the difficulty of each throw predicts.
Expected comp %:
The completion percentage the throws would be expected to produce.
Completed air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on completions.
Intended air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on all attempts.
Air yds differential:
Completed air yards minus intended air yards. Negative means completions come shorter than the throws attempted.
Air yds to sticks:
How far the average throw travels past (or short of) the first-down marker.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

Cmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games77/10980280736.573.165.6207100%0%72.2

Game log

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GameCmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · NYJ25/3226920212.146.919.465100%0%82.8
Wk 2 · BUF26/3832740418.586.029.865100%0%68.3
Wk 1 · NO26/392062015.85-2.916.477100%0%29.7