16.7

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is C.J. Stroud playing this week?

No injury designation

C.J. Stroud has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game against the Dallas Cowboys.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:21 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

From the beat

What reporters are saying about him, last 3 days.

  • Can the Texans please help C.J. Stroud

    Bill Barnwell @billbarnwell.com · 57m ago · View on Bluesky

Ask StatGrades about C.J. Stroud

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

START#11 QB this weekHigh confidence

Start. DAL's defense has allowed 41% more points to QBs than the league average.

Why we say start

  • Projected 16.5 points, #11 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
  • DAL's defense has allowed 41% more points to QBs than the league average.
  • HOU's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
  • Averaging 40 pass attempts a game.

Projected points

16.5

Likely range 9–26: the middle half of outcomes

vs DAL · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 13.0 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs QBs
41% more points

All week 4 quarterback rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

25

Height

6'3"

Weight

218 lb

College

Ohio State

Experience

3 seasons

Draft

2023 · Pick #2 (HOU)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 16.7?

Stroud's grade is low mainly because he completed fewer passes than expected and his plays added little expected points, even against defenses easier than average. Three games of work through week 3 puts him 23rd of 27 QBs. Nothing lifted the grade.

Holding it back

  • Completion percentage over expected was -2.7 points, 24th of 27, which pulled the grade down a lot.
  • EPA per dropback was -0.099 expected points per play, 21st of 27, even after adjusting for easier defenses.
  • Costly plays: in week 1 vs BUF he was sacked and fumbled on 3rd and 12 (-4.3 expected points), and in week 2 vs CIN a 4th and 1 pass to Wayne fell incomplete (-3.1).

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

-0.058

Success rate

43%

WPA (sum)

-0.44

Opponent adj.

-0.040

Plays graded

128

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Time to throw
2.97s
Aggressiveness
20.0%
CPOE
+3.0%
Expected comp %
57.0%
Completed air yds
6.8
Intended air yds
9.3
Air yds differential
-2.5
Air yds to sticks
+0.5
WeekTime to throwAggressivenessCPOE
12.79s21.1%+8.6%
22.98s16.4%-3.5%
33.22s25.9%+8.3%
What do these mean?
Time to throw:
Average seconds from snap to release.
Aggressiveness:
Share of throws into tight coverage, with a defender within one yard of the receiver.
CPOE:
Completion percentage over expected. Compares actual completions to what the difficulty of each throw predicts.
Expected comp %:
The completion percentage the throws would be expected to produce.
Completed air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on completions.
Intended air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on all attempts.
Air yds differential:
Completed air yards minus intended air yards. Negative means completions come shorter than the throws attempted.
Air yds to sticks:
How far the average throw travels past (or short of) the first-down marker.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

Cmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games72/1207943010-7.95-2.845.2213100%0%16.7

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameCmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · IND16/27167103-3.090.211.754100%0%45.3
Wk 2 · CIN30/55353004-6.36-8.417.080100%0%11.7
Wk 1 · BUF26/382742031.503.216.579100%0%51.6