79.6

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Dak Prescott playing this week?

No injury designation

Dak Prescott has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the Houston Texans.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:18 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

START#9 QB this weekHigh confidence

Start. Projected 18.1 points, #9 among QBs this week.

Why we say start

  • Projected 18.1 points, #9 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
  • Averaging 35 pass attempts a game.

Projected points

18.1

Likely range 9–29: the middle half of outcomes

@ HOU · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 16.5 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
DAL underdogs by 3
Game total
48.5
HOU vs QBs
11% fewer points

All week 4 quarterback rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

33

Height

6'2"

Weight

230 lb

College

Mississippi State

Experience

10 seasons

Draft

2016 · Pick #135 (DAL)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 79.6?

Prescott's grade is driven by accurate passing and efficient drives: he ranks 5th in completion percentage over expected and 4th in opponent-adjusted EPA per dropback. The sample is small, just 109 dropbacks over 3 games. His week 3 loss-of-form against Baltimore was the low point.

Lifting the grade

  • Completion percentage over expected of +6.3 points ranks 5th of 27 QBs.
  • EPA per dropback of +0.306 expected points ranks 4th of 27 after adjusting for defenses.
  • Week 3 vs BAL: a 49-yard deep pass to Lamb in the fourth quarter added 3.7 expected points.

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 4. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.311

Success rate

53%

WPA (sum)

0.65

Opponent adj.

-0.005

Plays graded

109

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Time to throw
2.69s
Aggressiveness
18.1%
CPOE
+5.9%
Expected comp %
63.6%
Completed air yds
6.2
Intended air yds
7.9
Air yds differential
-1.7
Air yds to sticks
-0.3
WeekTime to throwAggressivenessCPOE
12.75s14.7%+4.8%
22.66s16.1%+17.7%
32.67s22.5%-2.4%
What do these mean?
Time to throw:
Average seconds from snap to release.
Aggressiveness:
Share of throws into tight coverage, with a defender within one yard of the receiver.
CPOE:
Completion percentage over expected. Compares actual completions to what the difficulty of each throw predicts.
Expected comp %:
The completion percentage the throws would be expected to produce.
Completed air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on completions.
Intended air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on all attempts.
Air yds differential:
Completed air yards minus intended air yards. Negative means completions come shorter than the throws attempted.
Air yds to sticks:
How far the average throw travels past (or short of) the first-down marker.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

Cmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games73/10573071338.816.463.1187100%0%79.6

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameCmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · BAL25/4027610113.32-3.818.974100%0%48.4
Wk 2 · WAS26/3127940215.1018.029.855100%0%95.0
Wk 1 · NYG22/3417521010.387.714.458100%0%76.6