38.9

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Matthew Stafford playing this week?

No injury designation

Matthew Stafford has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the Philadelphia Eagles.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:17 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

MUST START#5 QB this weekHigh confidence

Must start. Projected 19.1 points, #5 among QBs this week.

Why we say must start

  • Projected 19.1 points, #5 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
  • Averaging 37 pass attempts a game.

Projected points

19.1

Likely range 10–30: the middle half of outcomes

@ PHI · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 18.4 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
LA favored by 3.5
Game total
42.5
PHI vs QBs
2% fewer points

All week 4 quarterback rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

38

Height

6'3"

Weight

214 lb

College

Georgia

Experience

17 seasons

Draft

2009 · Pick #1 (DET)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 38.9?

Stafford's grade is a bit below average because nothing separated him from the typical QB. Every measured part landed near the middle of the pack, from success rate to expected points per play. Game to game he swung widely, from 13.2 in week 1 to 76.8 in week 2.

Lifting the grade

  • Week 2 vs NYG: a 64-yard deep pass to Adams on 3rd and 10 added 5.4 expected points.
  • Week 3 vs DEN: a 48-yard touchdown pass to Mumpfield in the fourth quarter added 4.4 expected points.

Holding it back

  • Week 3 at DEN: a fourth-quarter interception on 3rd and 6 was returned for a touchdown by Hufanga, costing 9.3 expected points.
  • Week 1 vs SF: a fumble after a 5-yard completion to Higbee on 2nd and 2 cost 5.4 expected points.
  • Week 1 vs SF: a deep pass intended for Nacua was intercepted by Green on 3rd and 10, costing 3.0 expected points.

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.054

Success rate

44%

WPA (sum)

-0.30

Opponent adj.

0.015

Plays graded

113

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Time to throw
2.77s
Aggressiveness
16.2%
CPOE
+1.7%
Expected comp %
58.6%
Completed air yds
7.4
Intended air yds
10.0
Air yds differential
-2.6
Air yds to sticks
+0.9
WeekTime to throwAggressivenessCPOE
12.87s20.0%+2.5%
22.63s12.9%+4.3%
32.80s16.4%-0.1%
What do these mean?
Time to throw:
Average seconds from snap to release.
Aggressiveness:
Share of throws into tight coverage, with a defender within one yard of the receiver.
CPOE:
Completion percentage over expected. Compares actual completions to what the difficulty of each throw predicts.
Expected comp %:
The completion percentage the throws would be expected to produce.
Completed air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on completions.
Intended air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on all attempts.
Air yds differential:
Completed air yards minus intended air yards. Negative means completions come shorter than the throws attempted.
Air yds to sticks:
How far the average throw travels past (or short of) the first-down marker.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

Cmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games67/11187264512.331.152.019995%0%38.9

Game log

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GameCmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · DEN30/55390224-0.690.220.986100%0%51.6
Wk 2 · NYG22/3132741118.637.327.062100%0%75.0
Wk 1 · SF15/25155010-5.61-4.74.15184%0%20.3