27.8

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Bo Nix playing this week?

No injury designation

Bo Nix has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the San Francisco 49ers.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:17 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

START#12 QB this weekHigh confidence

Start. Scored 24.1 points last game against a typical 16 (trending up).

Why we say start

  • Projected 16.0 points, #12 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
  • Scored 24.1 points last game against a typical 16 (trending up).
  • Averaging 31 pass attempts a game.

Projected points

16.0

Likely range 8–25: the middle half of outcomes

@ SF · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 16.0 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
DEN underdogs by 3
Game total
47.5
SF vs QBs
1% fewer points

All week 4 quarterback rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

26

Height

6'2"

Weight

217 lb

College

Oregon; Auburn

Experience

2 seasons

Draft

2024 · Pick #12 (DEN)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 27.8?

The grade is low mainly because of inaccurate passing: his completion percentage over expected ranks 22nd of 27 QBs. His other measures are close to average, so nothing offset that. It's a fairly small sample of 100 dropbacks over 3 games, and his game grades swung from 4.7 to 85.0 to 7.8.

Holding it back

  • Completion percentage over expected is -2.6 points, 22nd of 27 QBs, and it pulled the grade down a lot.
  • Week 3 vs LA, Q4 2nd and 14: his pass intended for Sutton was intercepted by Wallace (-5.3 expected points).
  • Week 2 vs JAX, Q2 3rd and 8: a deep left pass intended for Sutton was intercepted by Lewis for a touchback (-4.3 expected points).

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 4. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

-0.070

Success rate

44%

WPA (sum)

0.35

Opponent adj.

0.101

Plays graded

100

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Time to throw
2.92s
Aggressiveness
14.0%
CPOE
-3.9%
Expected comp %
64.1%
Completed air yds
5.1
Intended air yds
6.9
Air yds differential
-1.8
Air yds to sticks
-2.2
WeekTime to throwAggressivenessCPOE
12.98s10.7%-9.1%
22.74s9.7%+7.4%
33.03s20.6%-10.0%
What do these mean?
Time to throw:
Average seconds from snap to release.
Aggressiveness:
Share of throws into tight coverage, with a defender within one yard of the receiver.
CPOE:
Completion percentage over expected. Compares actual completions to what the difficulty of each throw predicts.
Expected comp %:
The completion percentage the throws would be expected to produce.
Completed air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on completions.
Intended air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on all attempts.
Air yds differential:
Completed air yards minus intended air yards. Negative means completions come shorter than the throws attempted.
Air yds to sticks:
How far the average throw travels past (or short of) the first-down marker.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

Cmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games56/93605435-7.02-2.743.7180100%0%27.8

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameCmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · LA17/34186211-1.07-11.424.167100%0%7.8
Wk 2 · JAX22/312881108.4311.514.162100%0%85.0
Wk 1 · KC17/28131114-14.38-7.85.451100%0%4.7