Fantasy · Week 9 · Start or sit
Jared Goff Or Patrick Mahomes?
Our week 9 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (18.4 vs 17.6). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Jared Goff (52%).
Jared Goff outscores Patrick Mahomes 52% of the time; Patrick Mahomes 48%.
QB, DET at MIA
18.4 projected PPR points
Likely range 10–29 · QB6 this week · Must start
Must start. DET's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
QB, KC vs NYJ
17.6 projected PPR points
Likely range 9–28 · QB7 this week · Start
Start. KC's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
Side by side
| Jared Goff | Patrick Mahomes | |
|---|---|---|
| 18.4 | Projected points | 17.6 |
| 9.6 | Floor (a bad day) | 9.2 |
| 29.0 | Ceiling (a big day) | 27.7 |
| MIA +16% | Matchup | NYJ +15% |
| ~29 pts | Team's expected score | ~29 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Cold ▼ | Recent form | Hot ▲ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.