Fantasy · Week 6 · Start or sit
Caleb Williams or Patrick Mahomes?
Our week 6 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (19.2 vs 17.4). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Caleb Williams (54%).
Caleb Williams outscores Patrick Mahomes 54% of the time; Patrick Mahomes 46%.
QB, CHI at ATL
19.2 projected PPR points
Likely range 10–30 · QB6 this week · Must start
Must start. CHI's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
QB, KC vs LAC
17.4 projected PPR points
Likely range 9–27 · QB7 this week · Start
Start. Projected 17.4 points, #7 among QBs this week.
Side by side
| Caleb Williams | Patrick Mahomes | |
|---|---|---|
| 19.2 | Projected points | 17.4 |
| 10.0 | Floor (a bad day) | 9.0 |
| 30.3 | Ceiling (a big day) | 27.4 |
| ATL +5% | Matchup | LAC -18% |
| ~27 pts | Team's expected score | ~25 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Cold ▼ | Recent form | Steady |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.