96.3

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Michael Penix Jr. playing this week?

No injury designation

Michael Penix Jr. has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the New Orleans Saints.

Kickoff: Mon, Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:18 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

BENCH#26 QB this weekMedium confidence

Bench. Projected 10.9 points, #26 among QBs this week.

Why we say bench

  • Projected 10.9 points, #26 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
  • Averaging 25 pass attempts a game.

Projected points

10.9

Likely range 6–17: the middle half of outcomes

@ NO · Game page →

Recent form

W3

Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs QBs
9% fewer points

All week 4 quarterback rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

26

Height

6'3"

Weight

220 lb

College

Washington; Indiana

Experience

2 seasons

Draft

2024 · Pick #8 (ATL)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 96.3?

Penix's 88.4 grade, 3rd among 38 qualifying QBs, is driven mainly by accurate, efficient throwing in his one game so far against Green Bay. That's a small sample, so it could shift with more games, but he completed passes well above expectation and produced strong points added per play, including a 68-yard completion to London and a touchdown to Hooper.

Lifting the grade

  • Completion percentage over expected: +8.8 points, 3rd of 38 QBs
  • EPA per dropback: +0.355 points per play, 6th of 38
  • Big plays: 68-yard pass to London in Q4, touchdown to Hooper in Q2, 40-yard pass to London in Q4

Holding it back

  • An interception intended for Dotson that was returned by McKinney
  • An intentional grounding penalty on a Q1 incompletion

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.366

Success rate

65%

WPA (sum)

-0.02

Opponent adj.

-0.010

Plays graded

26

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Time to throw
2.27s
Aggressiveness
4.0%
CPOE
+6.0%
Expected comp %
66.0%
Completed air yds
4.7
Intended air yds
7.0
Air yds differential
-2.3
Air yds to sticks
-2.0
What do these mean?
Time to throw:
Average seconds from snap to release.
Aggressiveness:
Share of throws into tight coverage, with a defender within one yard of the receiver.
CPOE:
Completion percentage over expected. Compares actual completions to what the difficulty of each throw predicts.
Expected comp %:
The completion percentage the throws would be expected to produce.
Completed air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on completions.
Intended air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on all attempts.
Air yds differential:
Completed air yards minus intended air yards. Negative means completions come shorter than the throws attempted.
Air yds to sticks:
How far the average throw travels past (or short of) the first-down marker.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

Cmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
1 game18/252561109.518.814.071100%0%96.3

Game log

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GameCmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · GB18/252561109.518.814.071100%0%85.9