98.1

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Brock Purdy playing this week?

No injury designation

Brock Purdy has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game against the Denver Broncos.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:20 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

MUST START#2 QB this weekHigh confidence

Must start. Scored 31.3 points last game against a typical 16.1 (trending up).

Why we say must start

  • Projected 20.7 points, #2 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
  • Scored 31.3 points last game against a typical 16.1 (trending up).
  • SF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
  • Averaging 28 pass attempts a game.

Projected points

20.7

Likely range 11–33: the middle half of outcomes

vs DEN · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 16.1 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SF favored by 3
Game total
47.5
DEN vs QBs
11% fewer points

All week 4 quarterback rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

26

Height

6'1"

Weight

220 lb

College

Iowa State

Experience

4 seasons

Draft

2022 · Pick #262 (SF)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 98.1?

Purdy's grade is the best among the 27 qualifying QBs, driven mainly by how many expected points he added on each dropback, even against defenses tougher than average. His accuracy relative to expectation helped too. Only 3 games are graded, and his game grades ranged from 58.1 to 99.0.

Lifting the grade

  • EPA per dropback of +0.634 (expected points added per play, adjusted for defenses faced) ranked 1st of 27.
  • Completion percentage over expected of +6.3 points ranked 6th of 27.
  • Week 3 vs ARI, 3rd and 12: his short pass to Evans became an 80-yard touchdown on a lateral to Samuel (+7.7 expected points).

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.615

Success rate

63%

WPA (sum)

1.13

Opponent adj.

0.019

Plays graded

83

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Time to throw
2.96s
Aggressiveness
14.5%
CPOE
+7.5%
Expected comp %
64.7%
Completed air yds
6.7
Intended air yds
7.4
Air yds differential
-0.7
Air yds to sticks
-0.7
WeekTime to throwAggressivenessCPOE
12.69s17.6%+7.4%
23.04s0.0%+16.7%
33.24s22.2%+0.3%
What do these mean?
Time to throw:
Average seconds from snap to release.
Aggressiveness:
Share of throws into tight coverage, with a defender within one yard of the receiver.
CPOE:
Completion percentage over expected. Compares actual completions to what the difficulty of each throw predicts.
Expected comp %:
The completion percentage the throws would be expected to produce.
Completed air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on completions.
Intended air yds:
Average distance the ball travels in the air on all attempts.
Air yds differential:
Completed air yards minus intended air yards. Negative means completions come shorter than the throws attempted.
Air yds to sticks:
How far the average throw travels past (or short of) the first-down marker.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

Cmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games60/8378991051.096.480.916395%0%98.1

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameCmp/AttYdsTDINTSkEPACPOEFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · ARI15/2729740022.93-4.931.354100%0%64.1
Wk 2 · MIA20/2228720023.3329.028.54485%0%98.3
Wk 1 · LA25/342053104.830.821.165100%0%57.8