Week 4 Fantasy Football RB Rankings (Standard) — Start/Sit Calls

Early season: only 3 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.

1Jahmyr Gibbs▲RB · DET@CARMUST STARTScored 34.4 last game, typical 15.324.9
12–40 rangeMUST START
Recent form
29
17
34
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 15.3 a game
This week's matchup
@CARGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
DET favored by 3.5
Game total
50.5
CAR vs RBs
23% more points
Last game snaps
69%
Why we say must start
- Projected 24.9 points, #1 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 34.4 points last game against a typical 15.3 (trending up).
- CAR's defense has allowed 23% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 21.7 carries and 7 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 24.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
2Derrick Henry▲RB · BALvsTENMUST STARTScored 20.9 last game, typical 13.919.0
9–31 rangeMUST START
Recent form
34
15
21
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 13.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsTENGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
BAL favored by 11.5
Game total
42.5
TEN vs RBs
3% more points
Last game snaps
67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 19.0 points, #2 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 20.9 points last game against a typical 13.9 (trending up).
- BAL's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 22 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 19.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
3Bijan Robinson▲RB · ATL@NOMUST STARTScored 33.3 last game, typical 15.418.7
9–30 rangeMUST START
Recent form
23
8
33
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 15.4 a game
This week's matchup
@NOGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs RBs
8% more points
Last game snaps
72%
Why we say must start
- Projected 18.7 points, #3 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 33.3 points last game against a typical 15.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 22 carries and 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 18.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
4Jonathan Taylor▼RB · IND@WASMUST STARTIND expected to score ~26, a strong spot18.6
9–30 rangeMUST START
Recent form
22
25
7
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 16.6 a game
This week's matchup
@WASGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
IND favored by 4.5
Game total
46.5
WAS vs RBs
5% more points
Last game snaps
85%
Why we say must start
- Projected 18.6 points, #4 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- IND's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 7.2 points last game against a typical 16.6 (trending down).
- Averaging 22 carries and 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 18.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
5Christian McCaffreyRB · SFvsDENMUST STARTSF expected to score ~25, a strong spot16.7
8–27 rangeMUST START
Recent form
9
19
18
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 16.6 a game
This week's matchup
vsDENGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SF favored by 3
Game total
47.5
DEN vs RBs
4% fewer points
Last game snaps
83%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.7 points, #5 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 11.7 carries and 5.7 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
6Kenneth Walker III▲RB · KC@LVMUST STARTScored 19.3 last game, typical 8.516.4
8–27 rangeMUST START
Recent form
31
18
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game
This week's matchup
@LVGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
KC favored by 4.5
Game total
47.5
LV vs RBs
2% fewer points
Last game snaps
73%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.4 points, #6 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 19.3 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending up).
- KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 21.7 carries and 6 targets a game.
- Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
7James Cook▲RB · BUFvsNEMUST STARTScored 19.4 last game, typical 14.215.5
7–25 rangeMUST START
Recent form
7
20
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 14.2 a game
This week's matchup
vsNEGame page →
Expected team score
~28 pts
Vegas line
BUF favored by 7
Game total
49.5
NE vs RBs
15% fewer points
Last game snaps
67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 15.5 points, #7 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 19.4 points last game against a typical 14.2 (trending up).
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: NE's defense has allowed 15% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 19.3 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
Projection 15.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
8D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIvsNYJMUST STARTNYJ allow 31% more points to RBs13.6
7–22 rangeMUST START
Recent form
31
8
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsNYJGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CHI favored by 3.5
Game total
43.5
NYJ vs RBs
31% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
69%
Why we say must start
- Projected 13.6 points, #8 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- NYJ's defense has allowed 31% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 18 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
9Kyren WilliamsRB · LA@PHISTARTProjected 13.4 · #9 among RBs13.4
6–22 rangeSTART
Recent form
13
14
16
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.0 a game
This week's matchup
@PHIGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
LA favored by 3.5
Game total
42.5
PHI vs RBs
2% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
71%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.4 points, #9 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 12.7 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 71% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
10Bhayshul Tuten▲RB · JAX@CINSTARTScored 15 last game, typical 4.610.9
5–18 rangeSTART
Recent form
9
12
15
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 4.6 a game
This week's matchup
@CINGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
JAX underdogs by 2.5
Game total
51.5
CIN vs RBs
19% more points
Last game snaps
48%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.9 points, #10 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 15 points last game against a typical 4.6 (trending up).
- CIN's defense has allowed 19% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 14.3 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 48% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
11Javonte Williams▲RB · DAL@HOUSTARTScored 16.3 last game, typical 11.510.6
5–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
19
5
16
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.5 a game
This week's matchup
@HOUGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
DAL underdogs by 3
Game total
48.5
HOU vs RBs
20% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
76%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.6 points, #11 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 16.3 points last game against a typical 11.5 (trending up).
- Concern: HOU's defense has allowed 20% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 14.3 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
12Cam SkatteboRB · NYGvsARISTARTARI allow 14% more points to RBs10.2
5–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
14
6
10
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsARIGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NYG underdogs by 2.5
Game total
44.5
ARI vs RBs
14% more points
Last game snaps
77%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.2 points, #12 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- ARI's defense has allowed 14% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 16.7 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
- Played 77% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
13Jaylen Warren▲RB · PIT@CLESTARTScored 17.6 last game, typical 9.812.6
scored · proj 10.0START
Recent form
5
8
18
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.8 a game
This week's matchup
@CLEGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
PIT favored by 2.5
Game total
38.5
CLE vs RBs
6% fewer points
Wind
11 mph
Last game snaps
90%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.0 points, #13 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 17.6 points last game against a typical 9.8 (trending up).
- Averaging 12.7 carries and 4.7 targets a game.
- Played 90% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
14Ashton JeantyRB · LVvsKCSTARTProjected 9.9 · #14 among RBs9.9
5–16 rangeSTART
Recent form
27
6
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.0 a game
This week's matchup
vsKCGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
LV underdogs by 4.5
Game total
47.5
KC vs RBs
12% fewer points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.9 points, #14 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 21 carries and 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
15Aaron JonesRB · MINvsMIASTARTMIA allow 23% more points to RBs9.8
5–16 rangeSTART
Recent form
10
11
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsMIAGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
MIN favored by 10
Game total
38.5
MIA vs RBs
23% more points
Last game snaps
80%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.8 points, #15 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- MIA's defense has allowed 23% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 17.3 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
16Chase Brown▼RB · CINvsJAXSTARTCIN expected to score ~27, a strong spot9.4
5–15 rangeSTART
Recent form
14
8
7
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.2 a game
This week's matchup
vsJAXGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
CIN favored by 2.5
Game total
51.5
JAX vs RBs
24% fewer points
Last game snaps
70%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.4 points, #16 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- CIN's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: JAX's defense has allowed 24% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 16.3 carries and 4.3 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
17Bucky IrvingRB · TBvsGBSTARTGB allow 14% more points to RBs9.4
5–15 rangeSTART
Recent form
13
9
6
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game
This week's matchup
vsGBGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
TB underdogs by 3
Game total
38.5
GB vs RBs
14% more points
Last game snaps
52%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.4 points, #17 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- GB's defense has allowed 14% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: TB's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 13.3 carries and 5 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
18Chuba Hubbard▲RB · CARvsDETSTARTScored 11 last game, typical 5.69.1
4–15 rangeSTART
Recent form
21
12
11
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.6 a game
This week's matchup
vsDETGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CAR underdogs by 3.5
Game total
50.5
DET vs RBs
11% fewer points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.1 points, #18 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 11 points last game against a typical 5.6 (trending up).
- Averaging 13.7 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
19David MontgomeryRB · HOUvsDALSTARTDAL allow 16% more points to RBs8.8
4–14 rangeSTART
Recent form
26
2
5
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsDALGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs RBs
16% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
63%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.8 points, #19 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- DAL's defense has allowed 16% more points to RBs than the league average.
- HOU's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 12.3 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 63% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
20Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIvsLASTARTProjected 8.2 · #20 among RBs8.2
4–13 rangeSTART
Recent form
8
2
8
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsLAGame page →
Expected team score
~20 pts
Vegas line
PHI underdogs by 3.5
Game total
42.5
LA vs RBs
17% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
72%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.2 points, #20 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: LA's defense has allowed 17% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 11.3 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
21Jeremiyah Love▲RB · ARI@NYGFLEXScored 16.9 last game, typical 4.68.0
4–13 rangeFLEX
Recent form
11
5
17
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 4.6 a game
This week's matchup
@NYGGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
ARI favored by 2.5
Game total
44.5
NYG vs RBs
17% more points
Last game snaps
64%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.0 points, #21 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Scored 16.9 points last game against a typical 4.6 (trending up).
- NYG's defense has allowed 17% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 13.7 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 64% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
22Omarion HamptonRB · LAC@SEAFLEXProjected 7.9 · #22 among RBs7.9
4–13 rangeFLEX
Recent form
8
16
6
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.4 a game
This week's matchup
@SEAGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
LAC underdogs by 7
Game total
42.5
SEA vs RBs
28% fewer points
Last game snaps
42%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.9 points, #22 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 28% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 16.7 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 42% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
23Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WASvsINDFLEXMore work with Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out7.6
4–12 rangeFLEX
Recent form
12
5
4
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsINDGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
WAS underdogs by 4.5
Game total
46.5
IND vs RBs
4% more points
Last game snaps
57%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.6 points, #23 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +1.3 points).
- Averaging 15.7 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 57% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
24TreVeyon Henderson▼RB · NE@BUFFLEXBUF allow 19% more points to RBs7.5
4–12 rangeFLEX
Recent form
14
3
W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game
This week's matchup
@BUFGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NE underdogs by 7
Game total
49.5
BUF vs RBs
19% more points
Last game snaps
37%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.5 points, #24 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- BUF's defense has allowed 19% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 2.9 points last game against a typical 9 (trending down).
- Averaging 12 carries and 0.5 targets a game.
- Played 37% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
25Rhamondre Stevenson▼RB · NE@BUFFLEXBUF allow 19% more points to RBs7.3
4–12 rangeFLEX
Recent form
10
3
4
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.2 a game
This week's matchup
@BUFGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NE underdogs by 7
Game total
49.5
BUF vs RBs
19% more points
Last game snaps
52%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.3 points, #25 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- BUF's defense has allowed 19% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 3.8 points last game against a typical 9.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 10.3 carries and 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
26J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN@SFFLEXProjected 7.1 · #26 among RBs7.1
3–12 rangeFLEX
Recent form
4
4
5
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.7 a game
This week's matchup
@SFGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
DEN underdogs by 3
Game total
47.5
SF vs RBs
2% more points
Last game snaps
49%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.1 points, #26 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Averaging 11.7 carries and 0.7 targets a game.
- Played 49% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
27Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLEvsPITFLEXProjected 7.0 · #27 among RBs15.6
scored · proj 7.0FLEX
Recent form
5
5
8
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game
This week's matchup
vsPITGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
CLE underdogs by 2.5
Game total
38.5
PIT vs RBs
10% fewer points
Wind
11 mph
Last game snaps
51%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.0 points, #27 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: CLE's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 14 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 51% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
28Tony PollardRB · TEN@BALFLEXProjected 6.9 · #28 among RBs6.9
3–11 rangeFLEX
Recent form
3
7
10
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.0 a game
This week's matchup
@BALGame page →
Expected team score
~16 pts
Vegas line
TEN underdogs by 11.5
Game total
42.5
BAL vs RBs
1% fewer points
Last game snaps
53%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.9 points, #28 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: TEN's offense is expected to score only about 16 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 12.7 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 53% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
29Kyle MonangaiRB · CHIvsNYJFLEXNYJ allow 31% more points to RBs6.6
3–11 rangeFLEX
Recent form
18
6
3
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsNYJGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CHI favored by 3.5
Game total
43.5
NYJ vs RBs
31% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
31%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.6 points, #29 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- NYJ's defense has allowed 31% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 10 carries and 1.3 targets a game.
- Played 31% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 6.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
30RJ HarveyRB · DEN@SFFLEXProjected 6.0 · #30 among RBs6.0
3–10 rangeFLEX
Recent form
4
5
W1W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.4 a game
This week's matchup
@SFGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
DEN underdogs by 3
Game total
47.5
SF vs RBs
2% more points
Last game snaps
36%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.0 points, #30 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Averaging 2.5 carries and 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 36% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 6.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
31Woody MarksRB · HOUvsDALFLEXDAL allow 16% more points to RBs5.8
3–9 rangeFLEX
Recent form
4
4
8
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.7 a game
This week's matchup
vsDALGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs RBs
16% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
37%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.8 points, #31 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- DAL's defense has allowed 16% more points to RBs than the league average.
- HOU's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 7.3 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
- Played 37% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
32Emanuel WilsonRB · SEAvsLACFLEXMore work with Jadarian Price out5.4
3–9 rangeFLEX
Recent form
0
9
1
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 4.2 a game
This week's matchup
vsLACGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SEA favored by 7
Game total
42.5
LAC vs RBs
11% fewer points
Last game snaps
36%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.4 points, #32 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Jadarian Price out: more work to go around (about +1.2 points).
- Moves up to No. 1 RB on the depth chart with a teammate above him out.
- Averaging 10.7 carries and 0.3 targets a game.
- Played 36% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
33Alvin KamaraRB · NOvsATLBENCHATL allow 14% fewer points to RBs5.4
3–9 rangeBENCH
Recent form
2
4
W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.2 a game
This week's matchup
vsATLGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
NO favored by 2.5
Game total
47.5
ATL vs RBs
14% fewer points
Last game snaps
32%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.4 points, #33 among RBs this week, 0.0 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- ATL's defense has allowed 14% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Upside: NO's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 9 carries and 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 32% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.4 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
34Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · JAX@CINBENCHProjected 5.3 · 0.1 behind #325.3
3–9 rangeBENCH
Recent form
2
1
10
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.4 a game
This week's matchup
@CINGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
JAX underdogs by 2.5
Game total
51.5
CIN vs RBs
19% more points
Last game snaps
21%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.3 points, #34 among RBs this week, 0.1 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: CIN's defense has allowed 19% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 6.7 carries and 0 targets a game.
- Played 21% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 5.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
35Braelon AllenRB · NYJ@CHIBENCHProjected 5.2 · 0.2 behind #325.2
3–8 rangeBENCH
Recent form
4
8
2
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 2.2 a game
This week's matchup
@CHIGame page →
Expected team score
~20 pts
Vegas line
NYJ underdogs by 3.5
Game total
43.5
CHI vs RBs
2% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
52%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.2 points, #35 among RBs this week, 0.2 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: Breece Hall out: more work to go around (about +1.9 points).
- Averaging 6.3 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
36Kenny Gainwell▼RB · TBvsGBBENCHScored 1 last game, typical 7.85.0
2–8 rangeBENCH
Recent form
2
2
1
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsGBGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
TB underdogs by 3
Game total
38.5
GB vs RBs
14% more points
Last game snaps
46%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.0 points, #36 among RBs this week, 0.4 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 1 points last game against a typical 7.8 (trending down).
- TB's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Upside: GB's defense has allowed 14% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 3.3 carries and 3.3 targets a game.
Projection 5.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
37Blake Corum▼RB · LA@PHIBENCHScored 1.5 last game, typical 64.9
2–8 rangeBENCH
Recent form
5
9
2
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.0 a game
This week's matchup
@PHIGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
LA favored by 3.5
Game total
42.5
PHI vs RBs
2% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
29%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.9 points, #37 among RBs this week, 0.5 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 1.5 points last game against a typical 6 (trending down).
- Averaging 9.3 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 29% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 4.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
38Brian Robinson▲RB · ATL@NOBENCHProjected 4.7 · 0.7 behind #324.7
2–8 rangeBENCH
Recent form
3
7
11
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 2.9 a game
This week's matchup
@NOGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs RBs
8% more points
Last game snaps
27%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.7 points, #38 among RBs this week, 0.7 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: Scored 11 points last game against a typical 2.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 10 carries and 0.7 targets a game.
- Played 27% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 4.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
39Ollie Gordon II▲RB · MIA@MINBENCHMIA expected to score only ~14, a tough spot4.2
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
1
12
W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 2.5 a game
This week's matchup
@MINGame page →
Expected team score
~14 pts
Vegas line
MIA underdogs by 10
Game total
38.5
MIN vs RBs
17% fewer points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.2 points, #39 among RBs this week, 1.2 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- MIA's offense is expected to score only about 14 points, a tough scoring spot.
- MIN's defense has allowed 17% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Upside: Scored 11.5 points last game against a typical 2.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 10 carries and 1.5 targets a game.
Projection 4.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
–Trey SermonIRRB · ATL@NOOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 0.0 a game.
This week's matchup
@NOGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs RBs
8% more points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 0 carries and 0 targets a game.
- No. 3 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Jordan MasonIR▲RB · MINvsMIAOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
12
W1
Dashed line: the usual 6.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsMIAGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
MIN favored by 10
Game total
38.5
MIA vs RBs
23% more points
Last game snaps
45%
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaging 15 carries and 0 targets a game.
- Played 45% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 4 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Jonathon BrooksIRRB · CARvsDETOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
6
1
W1W2
Dashed line: the usual 4.6 a game
This week's matchup
vsDETGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CAR underdogs by 3.5
Game total
50.5
DET vs RBs
11% fewer points
Last game snaps
30%
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaging 4.5 carries and 1.5 targets a game.
- Played 30% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 4 RB on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–British BrooksIRRB · HOUvsDALOUTOn injured reserve — hamstring injury0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
0
W2
Dashed line: the usual 0.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsDALGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs RBs
16% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
0%
Why we say out
- On injured reserve — hamstring injury.
- Averaging 0 carries and 0 targets a game.
- Played 0% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 4 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Myles MontgomeryIRRB · NE@BUFOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 4.6 a game.
This week's matchup
@BUFGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NE underdogs by 7
Game total
49.5
BUF vs RBs
19% more points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 4 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Ronnie RiversIRRB · LA@PHIOUTOn injured reserve — calf injury0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
2
W1
Dashed line: the usual 0.6 a game
This week's matchup
@PHIGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
LA favored by 3.5
Game total
42.5
PHI vs RBs
2% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
13%
Why we say out
- On injured reserve — calf injury.
- Averaging 5 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 13% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 4 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Adam RandallIRRB · BALvsTENOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 4.6 a game.
This week's matchup
vsTENGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
BAL favored by 11.5
Game total
42.5
TEN vs RBs
3% more points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 4 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Travis EtienneIR▼RB · NOvsATLOUTOn injured reserve — hamstring injury0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
8
5
7
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsATLGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
NO favored by 2.5
Game total
47.5
ATL vs RBs
14% fewer points
Last game snaps
38%
Why we say out
- On injured reserve — hamstring injury.
- Averaging 10 carries and 4.3 targets a game.
- Played 38% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 4 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Malik DavisIRRB · DAL@HOUOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.2 a game.
This week's matchup
@HOUGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
DAL underdogs by 3
Game total
48.5
HOU vs RBs
20% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 5.2 carries and 0.5 targets a game.
- No. 4 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Rico DowdleOUT▼RB · PIT@CLEOUTOut — toe injury0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
2
4
W1W2
Dashed line: the usual 9.3 a game
This week's matchup
@CLEGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
PIT favored by 2.5
Game total
38.5
CLE vs RBs
6% fewer points
Wind
11 mph
Last game snaps
26%
Why we say out
- Out — toe injury.
- Averaging 7.5 carries and 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 26% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Chip TrayanumIRRB · NYJ@CHIOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 4.6 a game.
This week's matchup
@CHIGame page →
Expected team score
~20 pts
Vegas line
NYJ underdogs by 3.5
Game total
43.5
CHI vs RBs
2% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 4 RB on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

About these running back rankings

What do Must start, Start, Flex and Bench mean?: Among running backs, the top 8 are must-starts, through #20 are starts, through #32 are flex plays, and everyone else is a bench call, in a typical 12-team league.
How are these rankings made?: Each player starts from last season's scoring per game, then this season's games count for more as they pile up. We adjust for the opponent's record against the position, the points Vegas expects the team to score, and the injury report. Every projection and every sentence of explanation comes from our own model.
How often do the rankings update?: Automatically. The rankings are rebuilt about once a minute, and the injury report is re-checked every few minutes, so late injury news reaches the calls quickly. Games further ahead have less to go on until their betting lines are published.
Do PPR, Half PPR and Standard rankings differ?: Yes. Receptions are worth points in PPR, so pass-catching backs and receivers rank higher there. Switch formats above; each has its own page.

Want the full method, including where the model is wrong? Read how our fantasy numbers are built, or check the scorecard to see how past calls held up.

Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report and the NFL's official weekly report via nflverse.