Week 4 Fantasy Football RB Rankings (PPR) — Start/Sit Calls

Early season: only 3 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.

1Jahmyr Gibbs▲RB · DET@CARMUST STARTScored 41.4 last game, typical 19.330.5
15–50 rangeMUST START
Recent form
34
23
41
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 19.3 a game
This week's matchup
@CARGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
DET favored by 3.5
Game total
50.5
CAR vs RBs
20% more points
Last game snaps
69%
Why we say must start
- Projected 30.5 points, #1 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 41.4 points last game against a typical 19.3 (trending up).
- CAR's defense has allowed 20% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 21.7 carries and 7 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 30.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
2Bijan Robinson▲RB · ATL@NOMUST STARTScored 35.3 last game, typical 19.522.2
11–36 rangeMUST START
Recent form
31
11
35
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 19.5 a game
This week's matchup
@NOGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs RBs
4% more points
Last game snaps
72%
Why we say must start
- Projected 22.2 points, #2 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 35.3 points last game against a typical 19.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 22 carries and 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 22.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
3Christian McCaffreyRB · SFvsDENMUST STARTSF expected to score ~25, a strong spot21.5
10–35 rangeMUST START
Recent form
14
23
22
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 21.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsDENGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SF favored by 3
Game total
47.5
DEN vs RBs
7% fewer points
Last game snaps
83%
Why we say must start
- Projected 21.5 points, #3 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 11.7 carries and 5.7 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 21.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
4Jonathan Taylor▼RB · IND@WASMUST STARTIND expected to score ~26, a strong spot21.3
10–35 rangeMUST START
Recent form
25
29
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 19.1 a game
This week's matchup
@WASGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
IND favored by 4.5
Game total
46.5
WAS vs RBs
1% more points
Last game snaps
85%
Why we say must start
- Projected 21.3 points, #4 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- IND's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 9.2 points last game against a typical 19.1 (trending down).
- Averaging 22 carries and 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 21.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
5Derrick Henry▲RB · BALvsTENMUST STARTScored 21.9 last game, typical 14.719.8
10–32 rangeMUST START
Recent form
35
18
22
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 14.7 a game
This week's matchup
vsTENGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
BAL favored by 11.5
Game total
42.5
TEN vs RBs
2% fewer points
Last game snaps
67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 19.8 points, #5 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 21.9 points last game against a typical 14.7 (trending up).
- BAL's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 22 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 19.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
6Kenneth Walker III▲RB · KC@LVMUST STARTScored 21.3 last game, typical 10.119.5
9–32 rangeMUST START
Recent form
34
24
21
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.1 a game
This week's matchup
@LVGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
KC favored by 4.5
Game total
47.5
LV vs RBs
1% fewer points
Last game snaps
73%
Why we say must start
- Projected 19.5 points, #6 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 21.3 points last game against a typical 10.1 (trending up).
- KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 21.7 carries and 6 targets a game.
- Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 19.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
7James CookRB · BUFvsNEMUST STARTBUF expected to score ~28, a strong spot17.4
8–28 rangeMUST START
Recent form
10
21
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 15.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsNEGame page →
Expected team score
~28 pts
Vegas line
BUF favored by 7
Game total
49.5
NE vs RBs
11% fewer points
Last game snaps
67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 17.4 points, #7 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 19.3 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 17.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
8D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIvsNYJMUST STARTNYJ allow 24% more points to RBs16.4
8–27 rangeMUST START
Recent form
32
13
11
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.7 a game
This week's matchup
vsNYJGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CHI favored by 3.5
Game total
43.5
NYJ vs RBs
24% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
69%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.4 points, #8 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- NYJ's defense has allowed 24% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 18 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
9Kyren Williams▲RB · LA@PHISTARTScored 21.8 last game, typical 13.916.0
8–26 rangeSTART
Recent form
16
16
22
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 13.9 a game
This week's matchup
@PHIGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
LA favored by 3.5
Game total
42.5
PHI vs RBs
2% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
71%
Why we say start
- Projected 16.0 points, #9 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 21.8 points last game against a typical 13.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 12.7 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 71% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
10Ashton JeantyRB · LVvsKCSTARTProjected 13.2 · #10 among RBs13.2
6–21 rangeSTART
Recent form
33
10
12
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsKCGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
LV underdogs by 4.5
Game total
47.5
KC vs RBs
11% fewer points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.2 points, #10 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 21 carries and 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
11Chase Brown▼RB · CINvsJAXSTARTCIN expected to score ~27, a strong spot13.0
6–21 rangeSTART
Recent form
19
11
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 14.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsJAXGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
CIN favored by 2.5
Game total
51.5
JAX vs RBs
17% fewer points
Last game snaps
70%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.0 points, #11 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- CIN's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 8.9 points last game against a typical 14.9 (trending down).
- Averaging 16.3 carries and 4.3 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
12Javonte Williams▲RB · DAL@HOUSTARTScored 18.3 last game, typical 13.512.9
6–21 rangeSTART
Recent form
24
8
18
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 13.5 a game
This week's matchup
@HOUGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
DAL underdogs by 3
Game total
48.5
HOU vs RBs
18% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
76%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.9 points, #12 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 18.3 points last game against a typical 13.5 (trending up).
- Concern: HOU's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 14.3 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
13Jaylen Warren▲RB · PIT@CLESTARTScored 20.6 last game, typical 12.115.6
scored · proj 12.6START
Recent form
10
10
21
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game
This week's matchup
@CLEGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
PIT favored by 2.5
Game total
38.5
CLE vs RBs
5% fewer points
Wind
11 mph
Last game snaps
90%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.6 points, #13 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 20.6 points last game against a typical 12.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 12.7 carries and 4.7 targets a game.
- Played 90% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
14Cam SkatteboRB · NYGvsARISTARTProjected 12.6 · #14 among RBs12.6
6–21 rangeSTART
Recent form
14
10
13
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsARIGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NYG underdogs by 2.5
Game total
44.5
ARI vs RBs
9% more points
Last game snaps
77%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.6 points, #14 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 16.7 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
- Played 77% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
15Bhayshul Tuten▲RB · JAX@CINSTARTScored 17 last game, typical 5.212.4
6–20 rangeSTART
Recent form
10
14
17
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.2 a game
This week's matchup
@CINGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
JAX underdogs by 2.5
Game total
51.5
CIN vs RBs
19% more points
Last game snaps
48%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.4 points, #15 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 17 points last game against a typical 5.2 (trending up).
- CIN's defense has allowed 19% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 14.3 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 48% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
16Aaron Jones▲RB · MINvsMIASTARTScored 14.2 last game, typical 8.512.3
6–20 rangeSTART
Recent form
10
11
14
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsMIAGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
MIN favored by 10
Game total
38.5
MIA vs RBs
21% more points
Last game snaps
80%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.3 points, #16 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 14.2 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending up).
- MIA's defense has allowed 21% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 17.3 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
17Bucky IrvingRB · TBvsGBSTARTProjected 12.3 · #17 among RBs12.3
6–20 rangeSTART
Recent form
20
13
8
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsGBGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
TB underdogs by 3
Game total
38.5
GB vs RBs
11% more points
Last game snaps
52%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.3 points, #17 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: TB's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 13.3 carries and 5 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
18Chuba Hubbard▲RB · CARvsDETSTARTScored 15 last game, typical 7.411.5
6–19 rangeSTART
Recent form
24
14
15
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsDETGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CAR underdogs by 3.5
Game total
50.5
DET vs RBs
10% fewer points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.5 points, #18 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 15 points last game against a typical 7.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 13.7 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
19David MontgomeryRB · HOUvsDALSTARTDAL allow 15% more points to RBs10.7
5–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
29
4
7
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsDALGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs RBs
15% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
63%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.7 points, #19 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- DAL's defense has allowed 15% more points to RBs than the league average.
- HOU's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 12.3 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 63% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
20Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIvsLASTARTProjected 10.3 · #20 among RBs10.3
5–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
9
3
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsLAGame page →
Expected team score
~20 pts
Vegas line
PHI underdogs by 3.5
Game total
42.5
LA vs RBs
10% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
72%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.3 points, #20 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: PHI's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 11.3 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
21Jeremiyah Love▲RB · ARI@NYGFLEXScored 21.9 last game, typical 5.510.2
5–17 rangeFLEX
Recent form
13
8
22
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.5 a game
This week's matchup
@NYGGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
ARI favored by 2.5
Game total
44.5
NYG vs RBs
14% more points
Last game snaps
64%
Why we say flex
- Projected 10.2 points, #21 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Scored 21.9 points last game against a typical 5.5 (trending up).
- NYG's defense has allowed 14% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 13.7 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 64% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
22Omarion Hampton▼RB · LAC@SEAFLEXProjected 9.9 · #22 among RBs9.9
5–16 rangeFLEX
Recent form
8
18
6
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.3 a game
This week's matchup
@SEAGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
LAC underdogs by 7
Game total
42.5
SEA vs RBs
17% fewer points
Last game snaps
42%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.9 points, #22 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 17% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 16.7 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 42% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
23Rhamondre Stevenson▼RB · NE@BUFFLEXBUF allow 15% more points to RBs9.5
5–15 rangeFLEX
Recent form
15
4
7
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.2 a game
This week's matchup
@BUFGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NE underdogs by 7
Game total
49.5
BUF vs RBs
15% more points
Last game snaps
52%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.5 points, #23 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- BUF's defense has allowed 15% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 6.8 points last game against a typical 11.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 10.3 carries and 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
24Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLEvsPITFLEXProjected 9.2 · #24 among RBs21.6
scored · proj 9.2FLEX
Recent form
7
10
10
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.6 a game
This week's matchup
vsPITGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
CLE underdogs by 2.5
Game total
38.5
PIT vs RBs
7% fewer points
Wind
11 mph
Last game snaps
51%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.2 points, #24 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: CLE's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 14 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 51% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
25Tony PollardRB · TEN@BALFLEXProjected 8.8 · #25 among RBs8.8
4–14 rangeFLEX
Recent form
4
8
14
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.8 a game
This week's matchup
@BALGame page →
Expected team score
~16 pts
Vegas line
TEN underdogs by 11.5
Game total
42.5
BAL vs RBs
4% more points
Last game snaps
53%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.8 points, #25 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: TEN's offense is expected to score only about 16 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 12.7 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 53% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
26RJ HarveyRB · DEN@SFFLEXProjected 8.8 · #26 among RBs8.8
4–14 rangeFLEX
Recent form
8
11
W1W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game
This week's matchup
@SFGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
DEN underdogs by 3
Game total
47.5
SF vs RBs
8% more points
Last game snaps
36%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.8 points, #26 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Averaging 2.5 carries and 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 36% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 8.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
27TreVeyon Henderson▼RB · NE@BUFFLEXBUF allow 15% more points to RBs8.6
4–14 rangeFLEX
Recent form
14
4
W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game
This week's matchup
@BUFGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NE underdogs by 7
Game total
49.5
BUF vs RBs
15% more points
Last game snaps
37%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.6 points, #27 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- BUF's defense has allowed 15% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 3.9 points last game against a typical 10.9 (trending down).
- Averaging 12 carries and 0.5 targets a game.
- Played 37% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
28Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WASvsINDFLEXMore work with Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out8.4
4–14 rangeFLEX
Recent form
13
6
5
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsINDGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
WAS underdogs by 4.5
Game total
46.5
IND vs RBs
3% more points
Last game snaps
57%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.4 points, #28 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +1.4 points).
- Averaging 15.7 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 57% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
29J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN@SFFLEXProjected 8.1 · #29 among RBs8.1
4–13 rangeFLEX
Recent form
4
4
6
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.7 a game
This week's matchup
@SFGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
DEN underdogs by 3
Game total
47.5
SF vs RBs
8% more points
Last game snaps
49%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.1 points, #29 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Averaging 11.7 carries and 0.7 targets a game.
- Played 49% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
30Alvin KamaraRB · NOvsATLFLEXNO expected to score ~25, a strong spot8.1
4–13 rangeFLEX
Recent form
7
5
W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.7 a game
This week's matchup
vsATLGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
NO favored by 2.5
Game total
47.5
ATL vs RBs
11% fewer points
Last game snaps
32%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.1 points, #30 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- NO's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 9 carries and 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 32% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
31Kenny Gainwell▼RB · TBvsGBFLEXProjected 7.7 · #31 among RBs7.7
4–13 rangeFLEX
Recent form
3
5
3
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.6 a game
This week's matchup
vsGBGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
TB underdogs by 3
Game total
38.5
GB vs RBs
11% more points
Last game snaps
46%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.7 points, #31 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: Scored 3 points last game against a typical 11.6 (trending down).
- Averaging 3.3 carries and 3.3 targets a game.
- Played 46% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 7.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
32Kyle Monangai▼RB · CHIvsNYJFLEXNYJ allow 24% more points to RBs7.5
4–12 rangeFLEX
Recent form
20
8
3
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.7 a game
This week's matchup
vsNYJGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CHI favored by 3.5
Game total
43.5
NYJ vs RBs
24% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
31%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.5 points, #32 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- NYJ's defense has allowed 24% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 3.1 points last game against a typical 7.7 (trending down).
- Averaging 10 carries and 1.3 targets a game.
- Played 31% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
33Woody MarksRB · HOUvsDALBENCHProjected 7.4 · 0.1 behind #327.4
4–12 rangeBENCH
Recent form
5
9
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.1 a game
This week's matchup
vsDALGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs RBs
15% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
37%
Why we say bench
- Projected 7.4 points, #33 among RBs this week, 0.1 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: DAL's defense has allowed 15% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.3 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
- Played 37% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 7.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
34Braelon AllenRB · NYJ@CHIBENCHProjected 6.1 · 1.4 behind #326.1
3–10 rangeBENCH
Recent form
4
9
5
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 2.6 a game
This week's matchup
@CHIGame page →
Expected team score
~20 pts
Vegas line
NYJ underdogs by 3.5
Game total
43.5
CHI vs RBs
4% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
52%
Why we say bench
- Projected 6.1 points, #34 among RBs this week, 1.4 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: Breece Hall out: more work to go around (about +2 points).
- Averaging 6.3 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
35Emanuel WilsonRB · SEAvsLACBENCHProjected 5.8 · 1.7 behind #325.8
3–9 rangeBENCH
Recent form
0
9
1
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.0 a game
This week's matchup
vsLACGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SEA favored by 7
Game total
42.5
LAC vs RBs
12% fewer points
Last game snaps
36%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.8 points, #35 among RBs this week, 1.7 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: Jadarian Price out: more work to go around (about +1.2 points).
- Averaging 10.7 carries and 0.3 targets a game.
- Played 36% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
36Blake CorumRB · LA@PHIBENCHProjected 5.5 · 2.0 behind #325.5
3–9 rangeBENCH
Recent form
5
10
4
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.4 a game
This week's matchup
@PHIGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
LA favored by 3.5
Game total
42.5
PHI vs RBs
2% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
29%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.5 points, #36 among RBs this week, 2.0 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Averaging 9.3 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 29% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 5.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
37Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · JAX@CINBENCHProjected 5.4 · 2.1 behind #325.4
3–9 rangeBENCH
Recent form
2
1
10
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.6 a game
This week's matchup
@CINGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
JAX underdogs by 2.5
Game total
51.5
CIN vs RBs
19% more points
Last game snaps
21%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.4 points, #37 among RBs this week, 2.1 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: CIN's defense has allowed 19% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 6.7 carries and 0 targets a game.
- Played 21% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 5.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
38Tyler AllgeierRB · ARI@NYGBENCHProjected 5.3 · 2.2 behind #325.3
3–9 rangeBENCH
Recent form
9
4
5
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
@NYGGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
ARI favored by 2.5
Game total
44.5
NYG vs RBs
14% more points
Last game snaps
36%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.3 points, #38 among RBs this week, 2.2 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: NYG's defense has allowed 14% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 8 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
- Played 36% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 5.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
39Brian Robinson▲RB · ATL@NOBENCHProjected 5.2 · 2.3 behind #325.2
3–8 rangeBENCH
Recent form
3
9
11
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 3.3 a game
This week's matchup
@NOGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs RBs
4% more points
Last game snaps
27%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.2 points, #39 among RBs this week, 2.3 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: Scored 11 points last game against a typical 3.3 (trending up).
- Averaging 10 carries and 0.7 targets a game.
- Played 27% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 5.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
40Ty JohnsonRB · BUFvsNEBENCHProjected 5.0 · 2.5 behind #325.0
2–8 rangeBENCH
Recent form
9
W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.3 a game
This week's matchup
vsNEGame page →
Expected team score
~28 pts
Vegas line
BUF favored by 7
Game total
49.5
NE vs RBs
11% fewer points
Last game snaps
23%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.0 points, #40 among RBs this week, 2.5 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: BUF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 0 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 23% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 5.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
41Ollie Gordon II▲RB · MIA@MINBENCHMIA expected to score only ~14, a tough spot4.9
2–8 rangeBENCH
Recent form
1
15
W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 2.8 a game
This week's matchup
@MINGame page →
Expected team score
~14 pts
Vegas line
MIA underdogs by 10
Game total
38.5
MIN vs RBs
18% fewer points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.9 points, #41 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- MIA's offense is expected to score only about 14 points, a tough scoring spot.
- MIN's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Upside: Scored 14.5 points last game against a typical 2.8 (trending up).
- Averaging 10 carries and 1.5 targets a game.
Projection 4.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
42MarShawn LloydRB · GB@TBBENCHProjected 4.5 · #42 among RBs4.5
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
4
9
4
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.5 a game
This week's matchup
@TBGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
GB favored by 3
Game total
38.5
TB vs RBs
3% fewer points
Last game snaps
23%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.5 points, #42 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- Averaging 7.7 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 23% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 4.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
43Kendre MillerRB · NOvsATLBENCHProjected 4.4 · #43 among RBs4.4
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
9
4
W1W3
Dashed line: the usual 3.7 a game
This week's matchup
vsATLGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
NO favored by 2.5
Game total
47.5
ATL vs RBs
11% fewer points
Last game snaps
19%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.4 points, #43 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- Upside: NO's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6.5 carries and 1.5 targets a game.
- Played 19% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 4.4 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
44Tyrone Tracy Jr.▼RB · NYGvsARIBENCHScored 0.3 last game, typical 9.54.4
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
-1
0
0
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsARIGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NYG underdogs by 2.5
Game total
44.5
ARI vs RBs
9% more points
Last game snaps
2%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.4 points, #44 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- Scored 0.3 points last game against a typical 9.5 (trending down).
- Averaging 1 carries and 0 targets a game.
- Played 2% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 3 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 4.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
45Emmett JohnsonRB · KC@LVBENCHProjected 4.4 · #45 among RBs4.4
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
9
6
2
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.5 a game
This week's matchup
@LVGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
KC favored by 4.5
Game total
47.5
LV vs RBs
1% fewer points
Last game snaps
27%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.4 points, #45 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- Upside: KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.3 carries and 1.3 targets a game.
- Played 27% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 4.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
46Mike Washington Jr.▲RB · LVvsKCBENCHProjected 4.2 · #46 among RBs4.2
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
4
1
11
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsKCGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
LV underdogs by 4.5
Game total
47.5
KC vs RBs
11% fewer points
Last game snaps
16%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.2 points, #46 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- Upside: Scored 11.4 points last game against a typical 5.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 5 carries and 0.3 targets a game.
- Played 16% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 4.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
47George Holani▲RB · SEAvsLACBENCHProjected 4.2 · #47 among RBs4.2
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
3
3
11
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 1.7 a game
This week's matchup
vsLACGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SEA favored by 7
Game total
42.5
LAC vs RBs
12% fewer points
Last game snaps
36%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.2 points, #47 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- Upside: Scored 10.8 points last game against a typical 1.7 (trending up).
- Averaging 5 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 36% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 4.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
48Justice HillRB · BALvsTENBENCHProjected 4.0 · #48 among RBs4.0
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
4
4
3
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsTENGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
BAL favored by 11.5
Game total
42.5
TEN vs RBs
2% fewer points
Last game snaps
33%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.0 points, #48 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- Upside: BAL's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 4.3 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 33% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 4.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
49Tyjae SpearsQ▼RB · TEN@BALBENCHQuestionable — ankle injury3.7
2–6 rangeBENCH
Recent form
4
9
1
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.4 a game
This week's matchup
@BALGame page →
Expected team score
~16 pts
Vegas line
TEN underdogs by 11.5
Game total
42.5
BAL vs RBs
4% more points
Last game snaps
47%
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.7 points, #49 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- Questionable — ankle injury.
- Official practice report: Full practice, ankle injury. If active, about 4.9 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- Scored 0.5 points last game against a typical 7.4 (trending down).
- TEN's offense is expected to score only about 16 points, a tough scoring spot.
Projection 3.7 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Trey SermonIRRB · ATL@NOOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 0.0 a game.
This week's matchup
@NOGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs RBs
4% more points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 0 carries and 0 targets a game.
- No. 3 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

About these running back rankings

What do Must start, Start, Flex and Bench mean?: Among running backs, the top 8 are must-starts, through #20 are starts, through #32 are flex plays, and everyone else is a bench call, in a typical 12-team league.
How are these rankings made?: Each player starts from last season's scoring per game, then this season's games count for more as they pile up. We adjust for the opponent's record against the position, the points Vegas expects the team to score, and the injury report. Every projection and every sentence of explanation comes from our own model.
How often do the rankings update?: Automatically. The rankings are rebuilt about once a minute, and the injury report is re-checked every few minutes, so late injury news reaches the calls quickly. Games further ahead have less to go on until their betting lines are published.
Do PPR, Half PPR and Standard rankings differ?: Yes. Receptions are worth points in PPR, so pass-catching backs and receivers rank higher there. Switch formats above; each has its own page.

Want the full method, including where the model is wrong? Read how our fantasy numbers are built, or check the scorecard to see how past calls held up.

Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report and the NFL's official weekly report via nflverse.