78.0

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Justice Hill playing this week?

No injury designation

Justice Hill has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game against the Tennessee Titans.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:16 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
BENCH#48 RB this weekHigh confidence

Bench. Projected 4.0 points, #48 among RBs this week.

Why we say bench

  • Projected 4.0 points, #48 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
  • Upside: BAL's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
  • Averaging 4.3 carries and 1 targets a game.
  • Played 33% of the offense's snaps last game.
  • No. 2 RB on the depth chart.

Projected points

4.0

Likely range 2–7: the middle half of outcomes

vs TEN · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 5.4 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
BAL favored by 11.5
Game total
42.5
TEN vs RBs
2% fewer points
Last game snaps
33%

All week 4 running back rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

28

Height

5'10"

Weight

195 lb

College

Oklahoma State

Experience

7 seasons

Draft

2019 · Pick #113 (BAL)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 78.0?

Justice Hill's grade is driven mainly by strong per-touch production, ranking 14th of 61 backs in adjusted expected points per touch. Through just 16 touches across two games, his week 3 outing against Dallas was excellent and pulled the number up significantly.

Lifting the grade

  • Adjusted EPA per touch ranks 14th of 61 RBs, a big boost to the grade.
  • Week 3 vs DAL: 7-yard run on 3rd and 5 (+1.4 expected points).
  • Week 1 vs IND: 10-yard catch and out-of-bounds push (+1.1 expected points).

Holding it back

  • Week 1 vs IND: 2-yard gain on 3rd and 5 (-1.2 expected points).
  • Week 1 vs IND: no gain on 2nd and 5 (-0.7 expected points).
  • Faced easier-than-average defenses, which cost him 0.040 expected points per play in the grade.

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.005

Success rate

38%

WPA (sum)

0.06

Opponent adj.

-0.038

Plays graded

16

2026 Season Totals

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CarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games135703220010.97942%10%78.0

Game log

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GameCarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · DAL533000003.32133%27%99.9
Wk 1 · IND6180110003.83146%3%18.4