67.0

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Jaylen Warren playing this week?

No injury designation

Jaylen Warren has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 5 game against the Indianapolis Colts.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:17 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
START#13 RB this weekHigh confidence

Start. Scored 20.6 points last game against a typical 12.1 (trending up).

Why we say start

  • Projected 12.6 points, #13 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
  • Scored 20.6 points last game against a typical 12.1 (trending up).
  • Averaging 12.7 carries and 4.7 targets a game.
  • Played 90% of the offense's snaps last game.

Scored

15.6

Projected 12.6 · Likely range 6–21: the middle half of outcomes

@ CLE · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
PIT favored by 2.5
Game total
38.5
CLE vs RBs
5% fewer points
Last game snaps
90%

All week 4 running back rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

27

Height

5'8"

Weight

215 lb

College

Oklahoma State

Experience

4 seasons

Draft

2022 · Undrafted

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 67.0?

Warren's grade is above the middle of the pack because he produced about as much expected points per touch as a typical back, even against tougher defenses. His game grades swung widely, from 4.4 in week 1 to 93.4 in week 3. Everything else landed near average.

Lifting the grade

  • EPA per touch of -0.006 ranks 14th of 50 RBs, and the grade credits him for facing tougher-than-average defenses.
  • Week 3 vs CIN: a 35-yard run left end in the second quarter (+2.2 expected points).
  • Week 3 vs CIN: a 26-yard run left guard in the fourth quarter (+1.8 expected points).

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 4. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.028

Success rate

44%

WPA (sum)

-0.05

Opponent adj.

0.016

Plays graded

76

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 4 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Rush yds over expected
+77.0
Yds over exp / att
+1.45
Carries over expected
0.5%
Expected rush yds
223.0
Efficiency
3.55
Vs 8+ in the box
23.6%
Time to line
2.81s
WeekRush yds over expectedYds over exp / attVs 8+ in the box
1+5.7+0.5730.0%
2+1.5+0.140.0%
3+57.4+3.8317.6%
4+12.4+0.7341.2%
What do these mean?
Rush yds over expected:
Rushing yards above what the blocking and defenders in each carry would be expected to produce.
Yds over exp / att:
Rush yards over expected per carry.
Carries over expected:
Share of carries that gained more than expected.
Expected rush yds:
Yards the carries would be expected to gain on average, based on tracking data.
Efficiency:
Distance traveled per yard gained. Lower means a more direct, north-south runner.
Vs 8+ in the box:
Share of carries against eight or more defenders near the line.
Time to line:
Average seconds from the handoff to reaching the line of scrimmage.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

CarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
4 games553090131430056.220174%0%67.0

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameCarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 4 · CLE179303330015.67097%0%50.0
Wk 3 · CIN1712703490020.65690%0%93.4
Wk 2 · NE11430234009.75071%0%36.8
Wk 1 · ATL104605270010.32537%0%4.4