Practice report
Limited in practice — rest day
Practice: NFL official injury report, week 4 (via nflverse)
Is Aaron Jones playing this week?
Limited in practiceNo game-day designation has been issued yet. On the official practice report for week 4: Limited in practice, rest day.
Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 4:05 PM ET.
Checked Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.
Ask StatGrades about Aaron Jones
Ask your own questionOur numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.
Fantasy football · Week 4
Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank
Start. Scored 14.2 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending up).
Why we say start
- Projected 12.3 points, #16 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 14.2 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending up).
- MIA's defense has allowed 21% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 17.3 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Recent form
Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 10
- Game total
- 38.5
- MIA vs RBs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 80%
All week 4 running back rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →
Age
31
Height
5'9"
Weight
208 lb
College
Texas-El Paso
Experience
9 seasons
Draft
2017 · Pick #182 (GB)
Status
ACT
Grade Breakdown
What do these mean?Why 35.0?
Jones's grade sits below average mainly because his plays cost the offense expected points. He lost about 0.14 expected points per touch, 34th of 51 backs, even against defenses easier than average. His success rate and win probability impact were roughly neutral.
Holding it back
- EPA per touch of -0.142 ranked 34th of 51 backs, and that dragged the grade down.
- Week 3 at TB, Q4 2nd and 8: an up-the-middle carry for 1 yard cost 1.4 expected points.
- Week 1 vs GB, Q2 2nd and 4: a left end run for no gain cost 0.9 expected points.
Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).
EPA / play
-0.092
Success rate
33%
WPA (sum)
0.10
Opponent adj.
-0.023
Plays graded
59
Advanced stats
2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats| Week | Rush yds over expected | Yds over exp / att | Vs 8+ in the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -0.5 | -0.04 | 8.3% |
| 2 | +8.3 | +0.36 | 39.1% |
| 3 | -31.7 | -1.86 | 52.9% |
What do these mean?
- Rush yds over expected:
- Rushing yards above what the blocking and defenders in each carry would be expected to produce.
- Yds over exp / att:
- Rush yards over expected per carry.
- Carries over expected:
- Share of carries that gained more than expected.
- Expected rush yds:
- Yards the carries would be expected to gain on average, based on tracking data.
- Efficiency:
- Distance traveled per yard gained. Lower means a more direct, north-south runner.
- Vs 8+ in the box:
- Share of carries against eight or more defenders near the line.
- Time to line:
- Average seconds from the handoff to reaching the line of scrimmage.
Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.