Fantasy · Week 5 · 2026

Win your week. Start the right players.

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

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On bye: CAR, KC

  1. 1BUFJosh AllenQB · BUF@LALAMUST STARTBUF expected to score ~25, a strong spot24.713–39 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 20.3 a game

    This week's matchup

    BUFBUF@LALALAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    BUF underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    52.5
    LA vs QBs
    7% fewer points

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 24.7 points, #1 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
    • BUF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 29 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 24.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  2. 2DETJared GoffQB · DET@ARIARIMUST STARTDET expected to score ~29, a strong spot22.212–35 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 15.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    DETDET@ARIARIARIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~29 pts
    Vegas line
    DET favored by 5.5
    Game total
    52.5
    ARI vs QBs
    11% more points

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 22.2 points, #2 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
    • DET's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 36 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 22.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  3. 3DALDak PrescottQB · DALvsTBTBMUST STARTDAL expected to score ~29, a strong spot22.011–35 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 16.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    DALDALvsTBTBTBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~29 pts
    Vegas line
    DAL favored by 9.5
    Game total
    47.5
    TB vs QBs
    10% more points

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 22.0 points, #3 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
    • DAL's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 35 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 22.0 · High confidence · Full player page →

  4. 4LAMatthew StaffordQB · LAvsBUFBUFMUST STARTLA expected to score ~28, a strong spot19.810–31 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 18.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    LALAvsBUFBUFBUFGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    LA favored by 2.5
    Game total
    52.5
    BUF vs QBs
    10% fewer points

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 19.8 points, #4 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
    • LA's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 37 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 19.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  5. 5SFBrock Purdy▲QB · SF@SEASEAMUST STARTScored 31.3 last game, typical 16.118.910–30 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 16.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    SFSF@SEASEASEAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    SF underdogs by 3
    Game total
    47.5
    SEA vs QBs
    18% fewer points

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 18.9 points, #5 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 31.3 points last game against a typical 16.1 (trending up).
    • Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
    • Averaging 28 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 18.9 · High confidence · Full player page →

  6. 6BALLamar Jackson▲QB · BAL@ATLATLMUST STARTScored 20.4 last game, typical 14.318.210–29 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 14.3 a game

    This week's matchup

    BALBAL@ATLATLATLGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    BAL favored by 6
    Game total
    49.5
    ATL vs QBs
    2% more points

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 18.2 points, #6 among QBs this week, inside the top 6 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 20.4 points last game against a typical 14.3 (trending up).
    • BAL's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 25 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 18.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  7. 7CINJoe Burrow▲QB · CIN@MIAMIASTARTScored 22.6 last game, typical 13.418.09–28 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 13.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    CINCIN@MIAMIAMIAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    CIN favored by 8.5
    Game total
    46.5
    MIA vs QBs
    12% more points

    Why we say start

    • Projected 18.0 points, #7 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 22.6 points last game against a typical 13.4 (trending up).
    • CIN's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 34 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 18.0 · High confidence · Full player page →

  8. 8ARIJacoby Brissett▲QB · ARIvsDETDETSTARTDET allow 29% more points to QBs17.29–27 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 14.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    ARIARIvsDETDETDETGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    ARI underdogs by 5.5
    Game total
    52.5
    DET vs QBs
    29% more points

    Why we say start

    • Projected 17.2 points, #8 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • DET's defense has allowed 29% more points to QBs than the league average.
    • Scored 25.6 points last game against a typical 14.2 (trending up).
    • Averaging 39 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 17.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  9. 9JAXTrevor LawrenceQB · JAXvsPHIPHISTARTProjected 17.2 · #9 among QBs17.29–27 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 17.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    JAXJAXvsPHIPHIPHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    JAX favored by 3
    Game total
    44.5
    PHI vs QBs
    2% fewer points

    Why we say start

    • Projected 17.2 points, #9 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Averaging 27 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 17.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  10. 10PITAaron Rodgers▲QB · PITvsINDINDSTARTScored 22 last game, typical 12.616.69–26 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3W4

    Dashed line: the usual 12.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    PITPITvsINDINDINDGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    PIT favored by 1.5
    Game total
    44.5
    IND vs QBs
    10% more points

    Why we say start

    • Projected 16.6 points, #10 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 22 points last game against a typical 12.6 (trending up).
    • Averaging 38 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 16.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  11. 11GBJordan Love▲QB · GBvsCHICHISTARTScored 18.5 last game, typical 13.816.49–26 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 13.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    GBGBvsCHICHICHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    GB favored by 2.5
    Game total
    45.5
    CHI vs QBs
    8% more points

    Why we say start

    • Projected 16.4 points, #11 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 18.5 points last game against a typical 13.8 (trending up).
    • Averaging 41 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 16.4 · High confidence · Full player page →

  12. 12NOTyler Shough▲QB · NOvsMINMINSTARTScored 23.8 last game, typical 12.215.38–24 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 12.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    NONOvsMINMINMINGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    NO underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    44.5
    MIN vs QBs
    29% fewer points

    Why we say start

    • Projected 15.3 points, #12 among QBs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 23.8 points last game against a typical 12.2 (trending up).
    • Concern: MIN's defense has allowed 29% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
    • Averaging 44 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 15.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  13. 13DENBo Nix▲QB · DEN@LACLACBENCHLAC allow 16% fewer points to QBs15.18–24 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 16.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    DENDEN@LACLACLACGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    DEN favored by 2.5
    Game total
    43.5
    LAC vs QBs
    16% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 15.1 points, #13 among QBs this week, 0.2 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • LAC's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
    • Upside: Scored 24.1 points last game against a typical 16 (trending up).
    • Averaging 31 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 15.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  14. 14PHIJalen HurtsQB · PHI@JAXJAXBENCHJAX allow 12% fewer points to QBs15.18–24 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 16.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    PHIPHI@JAXJAXJAXGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    PHI underdogs by 3
    Game total
    44.5
    JAX vs QBs
    12% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 15.1 points, #14 among QBs this week, 0.2 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • JAX's defense has allowed 12% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
    • Averaging 29 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 15.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  15. 15HOUC.J. StroudQB · HOU@TENTENBENCHProjected 14.1 · 1.2 behind #1214.17–22 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 13.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    HOUHOU@TENTENTENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    HOU favored by 6.5
    Game total
    39.5
    TEN vs QBs
    1% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 14.1 points, #15 among QBs this week, 1.2 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • Averaging 40 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 14.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  16. 16NEDrake Maye▼QB · NEvsLVLVBENCHScored 3.8 last game, typical 18.513.87–22 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 18.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    NENEvsLVLVLVGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    NE favored by 3.5
    Game total
    44.5
    LV vs QBs
    3% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 13.8 points, #16 among QBs this week, 1.5 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • Scored 3.8 points last game against a typical 18.5 (trending down).
    • Averaging 27 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 13.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  17. 17CLEDeshaun WatsonQB · CLE@NYJNYJBENCHCLE expected to score only ~20, a tough spot13.67–21 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3W4

    Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    CLECLE@NYJNYJNYJGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    CLE underdogs by 1.5
    Game total
    40.5
    NYJ vs QBs
    12% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 13.6 points, #17 among QBs this week, 1.7 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • CLE's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Upside: NYJ's defense has allowed 12% more points to QBs than the league average.
    • Averaging 29 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 13.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  18. 18SEASam Darnold▲QB · SEAvsSFSFBENCHProjected 13.5 · 1.8 behind #1213.57–21 range

    Recent form

    W1W3

    Dashed line: the usual 12.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    SEASEAvsSFSFSFGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    SEA favored by 3
    Game total
    47.5
    SF vs QBs
    1% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 13.5 points, #18 among QBs this week, 1.8 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • Upside: SEA's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 24 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 13.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

  19. 19NYJGeno Smith▲QB · NYJvsCLECLEBENCHProjected 13.0 · 2.3 behind #1213.07–21 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    NYJNYJvsCLECLECLEGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    NYJ favored by 1.5
    Game total
    40.5
    CLE vs QBs
    9% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 13.0 points, #19 among QBs this week, 2.3 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • Upside: Scored 26 points last game against a typical 10.2 (trending up).
    • Averaging 34 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 13.0 · High confidence · Full player page →

  20. 20LACJustin HerbertQB · LACvsDENDENBENCHProjected 12.7 · 2.6 behind #1212.77–20 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 15.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    LACLACvsDENDENDENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    LAC underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    43.5
    DEN vs QBs
    11% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 12.7 points, #20 among QBs this week, 2.6 points behind #12, the last one we'd start.
    • Averaging 29 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 12.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  21. 21WASMarcus Mariota▲QB · WASvsNYGNYGBENCHProjected 12.4 · #21 among QBs12.46–20 range

    Recent form

    W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    WASWASvsNYGNYGNYGGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    WAS favored by 2.5
    Game total
    43.5
    NYG vs QBs
    8% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 12.4 points, #21 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • Upside: Moves up to No. 1 QB on the depth chart with a teammate above him out.
    • Averaging 24 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 12.4 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  22. 22INDDaniel Jones▼QB · IND@PITPITBENCHScored 7.9 last game, typical 15.112.46–20 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 15.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    INDIND@PITPITPITGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    IND underdogs by 1.5
    Game total
    44.5
    PIT vs QBs
    League average

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 12.4 points, #22 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • Scored 7.9 points last game against a typical 15.1 (trending down).
    • Averaging 33 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 12.4 · High confidence · Full player page →

  23. 23LVKirk Cousins▲QB · LV@NENEBENCHNE allow 15% fewer points to QBs12.36–19 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 8.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    LVLV@NENENEGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    LV underdogs by 3.5
    Game total
    44.5
    NE vs QBs
    15% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 12.3 points, #23 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • NE's defense has allowed 15% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
    • Upside: Scored 22.2 points last game against a typical 8.6 (trending up).
    • Averaging 31 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 12.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  24. 24ATLMichael Penix Jr.QB · ATLvsBALBALBENCHProjected 11.6 · #24 among QBs11.66–18 range

    Recent form

    W3

    Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    ATLATLvsBALBALBALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    ATL underdogs by 6
    Game total
    49.5
    BAL vs QBs
    5% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 11.6 points, #24 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • Averaging 25 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 11.6 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  25. 25MIAMalik WillisQB · MIAvsCINCINBENCHMIA expected to score only ~19, a tough spot10.86–17 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    MIAMIAvsCINCINCINGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~19 pts
    Vegas line
    MIA underdogs by 8.5
    Game total
    46.5
    CIN vs QBs
    9% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 10.8 points, #25 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • MIA's offense is expected to score only about 19 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Averaging 29 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 10.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  26. 26TENCam WardQB · TENvsHOUHOUBENCHTEN expected to score only ~17, a tough spot9.85–15 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 9.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    TENTENvsHOUHOUHOUGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~17 pts
    Vegas line
    TEN underdogs by 6.5
    Game total
    39.5
    HOU vs QBs
    11% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 9.8 points, #26 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • TEN's offense is expected to score only about 17 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Averaging 29 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 9.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  27. 27MINKyler MurrayQB · MIN@NONOBENCHProjected 9.6 · #27 among QBs9.65–15 range

    Recent form

    W1W3

    Dashed line: the usual 11.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    MINMIN@NONONOGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    MIN favored by 2.5
    Game total
    44.5
    NO vs QBs
    9% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 9.6 points, #27 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • Averaging 17 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 9.6 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  28. 28CHICase Keenum▲QB · CHI@GBGBBENCHProjected 9.0 · #28 among QBs9.05–14 range

    Recent form

    W3

    Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    CHICHI@GBGBGBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    CHI underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    45.5
    GB vs QBs
    7% fewer points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 9.0 points, #28 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • Upside: Scored 24.5 points last game against a typical 10.5 (trending up).
    • Averaging 34 pass attempts a game.
    • No. 2 QB on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.

    Projection 9.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  29. 29TBJalon Daniels▼QB · TB@DALDALBENCHScored -1.1 last game, typical 10.58.65–14 range

    Recent form

    W3

    Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    TBTB@DALDALDALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~19 pts
    Vegas line
    TB underdogs by 9.5
    Game total
    47.5
    DAL vs QBs
    41% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 8.6 points, #29 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • Scored -1.1 points last game against a typical 10.5 (trending down).
    • TB's offense is expected to score only about 19 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Upside: Moves up to No. 1 QB on the depth chart with a teammate above him out.
    • Averaging 3 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 8.6 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  30. 30CINJoe FlaccoQB · CIN@MIAMIABENCHProjected 8.1 · #30 among QBs8.14–13 range

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 9.8 a game.

    This week's matchup

    CINCIN@MIAMIAMIAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    CIN favored by 8.5
    Game total
    46.5
    MIA vs QBs
    12% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 8.1 points, #30 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • Upside: CIN's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaged last season 32 pass attempts a game.
    • No. 2 QB on the depth chart.

    Projection 8.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  31. 31NYGJ.J. McCarthyQB · NYG@WASWASBENCHProjected 8.1 · #31 among QBs8.14–13 range

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 10.4 a game.

    This week's matchup

    NYGNYG@WASWASWASGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    NYG underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    43.5
    WAS vs QBs
    31% more points

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 8.1 points, #31 among QBs this week, outside the top 12.
    • Upside: WAS's defense has allowed 31% more points to QBs than the league average.
    • Averaged last season 24 pass attempts a game.
    • No. 2 QB on the depth chart.

    Projection 8.1 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  32. –NYGJaxson DartIR▼QB · NYG@WASWASOUTOn injured reserve — knee (Meniscus) injury0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 15.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    NYGNYG@WASWASWASGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    NYG underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    43.5
    WAS vs QBs
    31% more points

    Why we say out

    • On injured reserve — knee (Meniscus) injury.
    • Averaging 17 pass attempts a game.
    • No. 3 QB on the depth chart.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  33. –TBBaker MayfieldOUTQB · TB@DALDALOUTOut — thumb injury0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 14.3 a game

    This week's matchup

    TBTB@DALDALDALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~19 pts
    Vegas line
    TB underdogs by 9.5
    Game total
    47.5
    DAL vs QBs
    41% more points

    Why we say out

    • Out — thumb injury.
    • Averaging 32 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  34. –CLEDillon GabrielIRQB · CLE@NYJNYJOUTOn injured reserve0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 5.8 a game.

    This week's matchup

    CLECLE@NYJNYJNYJGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    CLE underdogs by 1.5
    Game total
    40.5
    NYJ vs QBs
    12% more points

    Why we say out

    • On injured reserve.
    • Averaged last season 19 pass attempts a game.
    • No. 4 QB on the depth chart.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  35. –CHICaleb WilliamsOUT▼QB · CHI@GBGBOUTOut — hamstring injury0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 16.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    CHICHI@GBGBGBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    CHI underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    45.5
    GB vs QBs
    7% fewer points

    Why we say out

    • Out — hamstring injury.
    • Averaging 28 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  36. –BALSkylar ThompsonIRQB · BAL@ATLATLOUTOn injured reserve0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.1 a game.

    This week's matchup

    BALBAL@ATLATLATLGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    BAL favored by 6
    Game total
    49.5
    ATL vs QBs
    2% more points

    Why we say out

    • On injured reserve.
    • No. 4 QB on the depth chart.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  37. –JAXCarter BradleyIRQB · JAXvsPHIPHIOUTOn injured reserve0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.1 a game.

    This week's matchup

    JAXJAXvsPHIPHIPHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    JAX favored by 3
    Game total
    44.5
    PHI vs QBs
    2% fewer points

    Why we say out

    • On injured reserve.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  38. –LAMatthew CaldwellIRQB · LAvsBUFBUFOUTOn injured reserve0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.1 a game.

    This week's matchup

    LALAvsBUFBUFBUFGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    LA favored by 2.5
    Game total
    52.5
    BUF vs QBs
    10% fewer points

    Why we say out

    • On injured reserve.
    • No. 4 QB on the depth chart.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  39. –WASJayden DanielsOUTQB · WASvsNYGNYGOUTOut — elbow injury0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 12.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    WASWASvsNYGNYGNYGGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    WAS favored by 2.5
    Game total
    43.5
    NYG vs QBs
    8% more points

    Why we say out

    • Out — elbow injury.
    • Averaging 26 pass attempts a game.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  40. –HOUGraham MertzIRQB · HOU@TENTENOUTOn injured reserve0.00–0 range

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.1 a game.

    This week's matchup

    HOUHOU@TENTENTENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    HOU favored by 6.5
    Game total
    39.5
    TEN vs QBs
    1% more points

    Why we say out

    • On injured reserve.
    • No. 3 QB on the depth chart.

    Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

How we rank

Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.

We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.

The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.

Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.