Week 4 Fantasy Football Flex (RB/WR/TE) Rankings (Half PPR) — Start/Sit Calls

Early season: only 3 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.

1Jahmyr Gibbs▲RB · DET@CARMUST STARTScored 37.9 last game, typical 17.327.7
13–45 rangeMUST START
Recent form
31
20
38
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 17.3 a game
This week's matchup
@CARGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
DET favored by 3.5
Game total
50.5
CAR vs RBs
21% more points
Last game snaps
69%
Why we say must start
- Projected 27.7 points, #1 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 37.9 points last game against a typical 17.3 (trending up).
- CAR's defense has allowed 21% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 21.7 carries and 7 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 27.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
2Jaxon Smith-Njigba▲WR · SEAvsLACMUST STARTScored 30.4 last game, typical 15.821.6
9–37 rangeMUST START
Recent form
22
38
30
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 15.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsLACGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SEA favored by 7
Game total
42.5
LAC vs WRs
8% fewer points
Last game snaps
87%
Why we say must start
- Projected 21.6 points, #1 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 30.4 points last game against a typical 15.8 (trending up).
- Averaging 12 targets a game.
- Played 87% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 21.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
3Bijan Robinson▲RB · ATL@NOMUST STARTScored 34.3 last game, typical 17.420.4
10–33 rangeMUST START
Recent form
27
10
34
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 17.4 a game
This week's matchup
@NOGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs RBs
6% more points
Last game snaps
72%
Why we say must start
- Projected 20.4 points, #2 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 34.3 points last game against a typical 17.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 22 carries and 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 20.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
4Jonathan Taylor▼RB · IND@WASMUST STARTIND expected to score ~26, a strong spot19.9
10–32 rangeMUST START
Recent form
24
27
8
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 17.9 a game
This week's matchup
@WASGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
IND favored by 4.5
Game total
46.5
WAS vs RBs
3% more points
Last game snaps
85%
Why we say must start
- Projected 19.9 points, #3 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- IND's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 8.2 points last game against a typical 17.9 (trending down).
- Averaging 22 carries and 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 19.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
5Derrick Henry▲RB · BALvsTENMUST STARTScored 21.4 last game, typical 14.319.4
9–32 rangeMUST START
Recent form
35
16
21
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 14.3 a game
This week's matchup
vsTENGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
BAL favored by 11.5
Game total
42.5
TEN vs RBs
1% more points
Last game snaps
67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 19.4 points, #4 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 21.4 points last game against a typical 14.3 (trending up).
- BAL's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 22 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 19.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
6Christian McCaffreyRB · SFvsDENMUST STARTSF expected to score ~25, a strong spot19.1
9–31 rangeMUST START
Recent form
11
21
20
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 19.2 a game
This week's matchup
vsDENGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SF favored by 3
Game total
47.5
DEN vs RBs
6% fewer points
Last game snaps
83%
Why we say must start
- Projected 19.1 points, #5 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 11.7 carries and 5.7 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 19.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
7Kenneth Walker III▲RB · KC@LVMUST STARTScored 20.3 last game, typical 9.318.0
9–29 rangeMUST START
Recent form
33
21
20
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.3 a game
This week's matchup
@LVGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
KC favored by 4.5
Game total
47.5
LV vs RBs
1% fewer points
Last game snaps
73%
Why we say must start
- Projected 18.0 points, #6 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 20.3 points last game against a typical 9.3 (trending up).
- KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 21.7 carries and 6 targets a game.
- Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 18.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
8James CookRB · BUFvsNEMUST STARTBUF expected to score ~28, a strong spot16.5
8–27 rangeMUST START
Recent form
8
20
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 15.0 a game
This week's matchup
vsNEGame page →
Expected team score
~28 pts
Vegas line
BUF favored by 7
Game total
49.5
NE vs RBs
13% fewer points
Last game snaps
67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.5 points, #7 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: NE's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 19.3 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
9Chris OlaveWR · NOvsATLMUST STARTATL allow 13% more points to WRs15.8
6–27 rangeMUST START
Recent form
23
19
15
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game
This week's matchup
vsATLGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
NO favored by 2.5
Game total
47.5
ATL vs WRs
13% more points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say must start
- Projected 15.8 points, #2 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- ATL's defense has allowed 13% more points to WRs than the league average.
- NO's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 12 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 15.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
10Davante Adams▲WR · LA@PHIMUST STARTScored 17.2 last game, typical 12.115.5
6–27 rangeMUST START
Recent form
4
36
17
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game
This week's matchup
@PHIGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
LA favored by 3.5
Game total
42.5
PHI vs WRs
7% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
83%
Why we say must start
- Projected 15.5 points, #3 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 17.2 points last game against a typical 12.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 9.7 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 15.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
11D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIvsNYJMUST STARTNYJ allow 27% more points to RBs15.0
7–24 rangeMUST START
Recent form
32
10
10
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsNYJGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CHI favored by 3.5
Game total
43.5
NYJ vs RBs
27% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
69%
Why we say must start
- Projected 15.0 points, #8 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- NYJ's defense has allowed 27% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 18 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 15.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
12Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET@CARMUST STARTDET expected to score ~27, a strong spot15.0
6–26 rangeMUST START
Recent form
24
31
10
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 14.0 a game
This week's matchup
@CARGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
DET favored by 3.5
Game total
50.5
CAR vs WRs
19% fewer points
Last game snaps
74%
Why we say must start
- Projected 15.0 points, #4 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- DET's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: CAR's defense has allowed 19% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 11.7 targets a game.
- Played 74% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 15.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
13Kyren Williams▲RB · LA@PHISTARTScored 18.8 last game, typical 12.914.7
7–24 rangeSTART
Recent form
14
15
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.9 a game
This week's matchup
@PHIGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
LA favored by 3.5
Game total
42.5
PHI vs RBs
League average
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
71%
Why we say start
- Projected 14.7 points, #9 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 18.8 points last game against a typical 12.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 12.7 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 71% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
14Ja'Marr Chase▲WR · CINvsJAXMUST STARTScored 20.3 last game, typical 1414.7
6–25 rangeMUST START
Recent form
2
23
20
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 14.0 a game
This week's matchup
vsJAXGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
CIN favored by 2.5
Game total
51.5
JAX vs WRs
2% fewer points
Last game snaps
100%
Why we say must start
- Projected 14.7 points, #5 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 20.3 points last game against a typical 14 (trending up).
- CIN's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
- Played 100% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
15Puka Nacua▼WR · LA@PHIMUST STARTProjected 14.5 · #6 among WRs14.5
6–25 rangeMUST START
Recent form
10
W1
Dashed line: the usual 17.3 a game
This week's matchup
@PHIGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
LA favored by 3.5
Game total
42.5
PHI vs WRs
7% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
70%
Why we say must start
- Projected 14.5 points, #6 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Concern: Scored 9.9 points last game against a typical 17.3 (trending down).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
16CeeDee Lamb▲WR · DAL@HOUMUST STARTScored 16.7 last game, typical 10.913.6
5–23 rangeMUST START
Recent form
13
31
17
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game
This week's matchup
@HOUGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
DAL underdogs by 3
Game total
48.5
HOU vs WRs
4% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
82%
Why we say must start
- Projected 13.6 points, #7 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 16.7 points last game against a typical 10.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
- Played 82% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
17Nico Collins▲WR · HOUvsDALMUST STARTScored 17.7 last game, typical 11.213.3
5–23 rangeMUST START
Recent form
18
W1
Dashed line: the usual 11.2 a game
This week's matchup
vsDALGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs WRs
20% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
72%
Why we say must start
- Projected 13.3 points, #8 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 17.7 points last game against a typical 11.2 (trending up).
- DAL's defense has allowed 20% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 10 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
18Christian Watson▲WR · GB@TBSTARTScored 19.1 last game, typical 9.612.6
5–22 rangeSTART
Recent form
30
12
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.6 a game
This week's matchup
@TBGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
GB favored by 3
Game total
38.5
TB vs WRs
3% fewer points
Last game snaps
80%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.6 points, #9 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 19.1 points last game against a typical 9.6 (trending up).
- Averaging 9.7 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
19Stefon DiggsWR · WASvsINDSTARTMore work with Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out12.3
5–21 rangeSTART
Recent form
14
19
5
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsINDGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
WAS underdogs by 4.5
Game total
46.5
IND vs WRs
15% more points
Last game snaps
59%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.3 points, #10 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +2.2 points).
- IND's defense has allowed 15% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.3 targets a game.
- Played 59% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
20Garrett Wilson▲WR · NYJ@CHISTARTScored 21.7 last game, typical 9.112.1
5–21 rangeSTART
Recent form
11
14
22
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.1 a game
This week's matchup
@CHIGame page →
Expected team score
~20 pts
Vegas line
NYJ underdogs by 3.5
Game total
43.5
CHI vs WRs
11% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
94%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.1 points, #11 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 21.7 points last game against a typical 9.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
21Brock Bowers▲TE · LVvsKCMUST STARTScored 22.6 last game, typical 10.312.0
4–21 rangeMUST START
Recent form
23
W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.3 a game
This week's matchup
vsKCGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
LV underdogs by 4.5
Game total
47.5
KC vs TEs
13% fewer points
Last game snaps
79%
Why we say must start
- Projected 12.0 points, #1 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 22.6 points last game against a typical 10.3 (trending up).
- Concern: KC's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 13 targets a game.
- Played 79% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
22George Kittle▲TE · SFvsDENMUST STARTScored 23.2 last game, typical 10.211.9
4–21 rangeMUST START
Recent form
2
16
23
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game
This week's matchup
vsDENGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SF favored by 3
Game total
47.5
DEN vs TEs
3% more points
Last game snaps
85%
Why we say must start
- Projected 11.9 points, #2 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 23.2 points last game against a typical 10.2 (trending up).
- SF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
23Javonte Williams▲RB · DAL@HOUSTARTScored 17.3 last game, typical 12.511.7
6–19 rangeSTART
Recent form
22
7
17
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.5 a game
This week's matchup
@HOUGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
DAL underdogs by 3
Game total
48.5
HOU vs RBs
19% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
76%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.7 points, #10 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 17.3 points last game against a typical 12.5 (trending up).
- Concern: HOU's defense has allowed 19% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 14.3 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
24Trey McBrideTE · ARI@NYGMUST STARTProjected 11.7 · #3 among TEs11.7
4–21 rangeMUST START
Recent form
20
14
12
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 13.3 a game
This week's matchup
@NYGGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
ARI favored by 2.5
Game total
44.5
NYG vs TEs
15% fewer points
Last game snaps
91%
Why we say must start
- Projected 11.7 points, #3 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Concern: NYG's defense has allowed 15% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 11.3 targets a game.
- Played 91% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
25Bhayshul Tuten▲RB · JAX@CINSTARTScored 16 last game, typical 4.911.6
6–19 rangeSTART
Recent form
9
13
16
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 4.9 a game
This week's matchup
@CINGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
JAX underdogs by 2.5
Game total
51.5
CIN vs RBs
19% more points
Last game snaps
48%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.6 points, #11 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 16 points last game against a typical 4.9 (trending up).
- CIN's defense has allowed 19% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 14.3 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 48% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
26Tee Higgins▲WR · CINvsJAXSTARTScored 18 last game, typical 10.711.6
5–20 rangeSTART
Recent form
7
12
18
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.7 a game
This week's matchup
vsJAXGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
CIN favored by 2.5
Game total
51.5
JAX vs WRs
2% fewer points
Last game snaps
93%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.6 points, #12 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 18 points last game against a typical 10.7 (trending up).
- CIN's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
- Played 93% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
27Ashton JeantyRB · LVvsKCSTARTProjected 11.5 · #12 among RBs11.5
6–19 rangeSTART
Recent form
30
8
11
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsKCGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
LV underdogs by 4.5
Game total
47.5
KC vs RBs
12% fewer points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.5 points, #12 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 21 carries and 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
28Cam SkatteboRB · NYGvsARISTARTProjected 11.4 · #13 among RBs11.4
6–19 rangeSTART
Recent form
14
8
12
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.6 a game
This week's matchup
vsARIGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NYG underdogs by 2.5
Game total
44.5
ARI vs RBs
11% more points
Last game snaps
77%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.4 points, #13 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 16.7 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
- Played 77% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
29Jaylen Warren▲RB · PIT@CLESTARTScored 19.1 last game, typical 1114.1
scored · proj 11.3START
Recent form
8
9
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.0 a game
This week's matchup
@CLEGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
PIT favored by 2.5
Game total
38.5
CLE vs RBs
5% fewer points
Wind
11 mph
Last game snaps
90%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.3 points, #14 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 19.1 points last game against a typical 11 (trending up).
- Averaging 12.7 carries and 4.7 targets a game.
- Played 90% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
30Chase Brown▼RB · CINvsJAXSTARTCIN expected to score ~27, a strong spot11.2
5–18 rangeSTART
Recent form
16
10
8
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 13.1 a game
This week's matchup
vsJAXGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
CIN favored by 2.5
Game total
51.5
JAX vs RBs
20% fewer points
Last game snaps
70%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.2 points, #15 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- CIN's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: JAX's defense has allowed 20% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 16.3 carries and 4.3 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
31Rashee RiceWR · KC@LVSTARTKC expected to score ~26, a strong spot11.1
4–19 rangeSTART
Recent form
9
10
12
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.4 a game
This week's matchup
@LVGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
KC favored by 4.5
Game total
47.5
LV vs WRs
3% fewer points
Last game snaps
77%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.1 points, #13 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.7 targets a game.
- Played 77% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
32Aaron Jones▲RB · MINvsMIASTARTScored 11.7 last game, typical 7.511.0
5–18 rangeSTART
Recent form
10
11
12
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsMIAGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
MIN favored by 10
Game total
38.5
MIA vs RBs
22% more points
Last game snaps
80%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.0 points, #16 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 11.7 points last game against a typical 7.5 (trending up).
- MIA's defense has allowed 22% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 17.3 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
33Bucky IrvingRB · TBvsGBSTARTGB allow 12% more points to RBs10.9
5–18 rangeSTART
Recent form
17
11
7
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.3 a game
This week's matchup
vsGBGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
TB underdogs by 3
Game total
38.5
GB vs RBs
12% more points
Last game snaps
52%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.9 points, #17 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- GB's defense has allowed 12% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: TB's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 13.3 carries and 5 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
34Tyler WarrenTE · IND@WASMUST STARTMore work with Keenan Allen out10.9
4–19 rangeMUST START
Recent form
9
11
10
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.9 a game
This week's matchup
@WASGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
IND favored by 4.5
Game total
46.5
WAS vs TEs
39% more points
Last game snaps
94%
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.9 points, #4 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +1.4 points).
- WAS's defense has allowed 39% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.3 targets a game.
- Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
35Drake London▲WR · ATL@NOSTARTScored 23.9 last game, typical 1210.6
4–18 rangeSTART
Recent form
5
7
24
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.0 a game
This week's matchup
@NOGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs WRs
9% fewer points
Last game snaps
93%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.6 points, #14 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 23.9 points last game against a typical 12 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.3 targets a game.
- Played 93% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
36Travis Kelce▲TE · KC@LVMUST STARTScored 12.9 last game, typical 8.210.4
4–18 rangeMUST START
Recent form
9
21
13
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.2 a game
This week's matchup
@LVGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
KC favored by 4.5
Game total
47.5
LV vs TEs
1% fewer points
Last game snaps
79%
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.4 points, #5 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 12.9 points last game against a typical 8.2 (trending up).
- KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 79% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
37Chuba Hubbard▲RB · CARvsDETSTARTScored 13 last game, typical 6.510.3
5–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
22
13
13
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsDETGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CAR underdogs by 3.5
Game total
50.5
DET vs RBs
10% fewer points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.3 points, #18 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 13 points last game against a typical 6.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 13.7 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
38Michael Wilson▲WR · ARI@NYGSTARTScored 20.4 last game, typical 9.69.9
4–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
8
3
20
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.6 a game
This week's matchup
@NYGGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
ARI favored by 2.5
Game total
44.5
NYG vs WRs
11% more points
Last game snaps
93%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.9 points, #15 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 20.4 points last game against a typical 9.6 (trending up).
- Averaging 10.3 targets a game.
- Played 93% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
39David MontgomeryRB · HOUvsDALSTARTDAL allow 16% more points to RBs9.8
5–16 rangeSTART
Recent form
27
3
6
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.2 a game
This week's matchup
vsDALGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs RBs
16% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
63%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.8 points, #19 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- DAL's defense has allowed 16% more points to RBs than the league average.
- HOU's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 12.3 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 63% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
40George PickensWR · DAL@HOUSTARTProjected 9.7 · #16 among WRs9.7
4–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
4
7
12
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.9 a game
This week's matchup
@HOUGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
DAL underdogs by 3
Game total
48.5
HOU vs WRs
4% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
85%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.7 points, #16 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
41Josh Downs▲WR · IND@WASSTARTScored 10.2 last game, typical 6.19.6
4–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
5
11
10
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.1 a game
This week's matchup
@WASGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
IND favored by 4.5
Game total
46.5
WAS vs WRs
23% more points
Last game snaps
68%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.6 points, #17 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 10.2 points last game against a typical 6.1 (trending up).
- Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +1.4 points).
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 68% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
42Juwan Johnson▲TE · NOvsATLSTARTScored 19.3 last game, typical 7.49.5
3–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
13
9
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsATLGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
NO favored by 2.5
Game total
47.5
ATL vs TEs
9% fewer points
Last game snaps
62%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.5 points, #6 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 19.3 points last game against a typical 7.4 (trending up).
- NO's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6.3 targets a game.
- Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
43Parker WashingtonWR · JAX@CINSTARTProjected 9.5 · #18 among WRs9.5
4–16 rangeSTART
Recent form
17
13
12
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.6 a game
This week's matchup
@CINGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
JAX underdogs by 2.5
Game total
51.5
CIN vs WRs
13% fewer points
Last game snaps
81%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.5 points, #18 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Concern: CIN's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
44Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIvsLASTARTProjected 9.3 · #20 among RBs9.3
5–15 rangeSTART
Recent form
9
3
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsLAGame page →
Expected team score
~20 pts
Vegas line
PHI underdogs by 3.5
Game total
42.5
LA vs RBs
13% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
72%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.3 points, #20 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: LA's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 11.3 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
45Jeremiyah Love▲RB · ARI@NYGFLEXScored 19.4 last game, typical 5.19.1
4–15 rangeFLEX
Recent form
12
6
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
@NYGGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
ARI favored by 2.5
Game total
44.5
NYG vs RBs
15% more points
Last game snaps
64%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.1 points, #21 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Scored 19.4 points last game against a typical 5.1 (trending up).
- NYG's defense has allowed 15% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 13.7 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 64% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
46Omarion Hampton▼RB · LAC@SEAFLEXProjected 8.8 · #22 among RBs8.8
4–14 rangeFLEX
Recent form
8
17
6
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game
This week's matchup
@SEAGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
LAC underdogs by 7
Game total
42.5
SEA vs RBs
22% fewer points
Last game snaps
42%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.8 points, #22 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 22% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 16.7 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 42% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
47Dalton Kincaid▼TE · BUFvsNESTARTBUF expected to score ~28, a strong spot8.8
3–16 rangeSTART
Recent form
16
19
3
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.6 a game
This week's matchup
vsNEGame page →
Expected team score
~28 pts
Vegas line
BUF favored by 7
Game total
49.5
NE vs TEs
14% fewer points
Last game snaps
67%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.8 points, #7 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 2.8 points last game against a typical 7.6 (trending down).
- Averaging 5.7 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
48Harold Fannin Jr.▲TE · CLEvsPITSTARTScored 20.6 last game, typical 8.410.2
scored · proj 8.8START
Recent form
3
8
21
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsPITGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
CLE underdogs by 2.5
Game total
38.5
PIT vs TEs
11% more points
Wind
11 mph
Last game snaps
86%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.8 points, #8 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 20.6 points last game against a typical 8.4 (trending up).
- Concern: CLE's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
49Tetairoa McMillan▼WR · CARvsDETSTARTDET allow 20% more points to WRs8.7
4–15 rangeSTART
Recent form
8
13
3
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsDETGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CAR underdogs by 3.5
Game total
50.5
DET vs WRs
20% more points
Last game snaps
95%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.7 points, #19 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- DET's defense has allowed 20% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 2.7 points last game against a typical 9.4 (trending down).
- Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
- Played 95% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
50Dalton SchultzTE · HOUvsDALSTARTHOU expected to score ~26, a strong spot8.6
3–15 rangeSTART
Recent form
6
20
5
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.2 a game
This week's matchup
vsDALGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs TEs
2% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
54%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.6 points, #9 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- HOU's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
- Played 54% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
51Sam LaPortaTE · DET@CARSTARTDET expected to score ~27, a strong spot8.5
3–15 rangeSTART
Recent form
7
14
6
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.9 a game
This week's matchup
@CARGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
DET favored by 3.5
Game total
50.5
CAR vs TEs
6% more points
Last game snaps
92%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.5 points, #10 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- DET's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6.3 targets a game.
- Played 92% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
52Zay FlowersQWR · BALvsTENSTARTIf active · Questionable — hamstring injury8.5
0–15 rangeSTART
Recent form
24
13
W1W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsTENGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
BAL favored by 11.5
Game total
42.5
TEN vs WRs
12% more points
Last game snaps
33%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.5 points, #20 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Questionable — hamstring injury.
- Official practice report: Limited in practice, hamstring injury. If active, about 13.1 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- BAL's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- TEN's defense has allowed 12% more points to WRs than the league average.
Projection 8.5 · Low confidence · Full player page →
53Rhamondre Stevenson▼RB · NE@BUFFLEXBUF allow 17% more points to RBs8.4
4–14 rangeFLEX
Recent form
12
3
5
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game
This week's matchup
@BUFGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NE underdogs by 7
Game total
49.5
BUF vs RBs
17% more points
Last game snaps
52%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.4 points, #23 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- BUF's defense has allowed 17% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 5.3 points last game against a typical 10.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 10.3 carries and 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
54Matthew Golden▲WR · GB@TBSTARTScored 18.5 last game, typical 3.58.4
3–14 rangeSTART
Recent form
13
8
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 3.5 a game
This week's matchup
@TBGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
GB favored by 3
Game total
38.5
TB vs WRs
3% fewer points
Last game snaps
82%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.4 points, #21 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 18.5 points last game against a typical 3.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 10 targets a game.
- Played 82% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
55Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN@SFSTARTProjected 8.2 · #22 among WRs8.2
3–14 rangeSTART
Recent form
1
18
5
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game
This week's matchup
@SFGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
DEN underdogs by 3
Game total
47.5
SF vs WRs
1% fewer points
Last game snaps
73%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.2 points, #22 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 6.7 targets a game.
- Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
56Kalif Raymond▲WR · CHIvsNYJSTARTScored 18 last game, typical 3.28.2
3–14 rangeSTART
Recent form
12
7
18
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 3.2 a game
This week's matchup
vsNYJGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CHI favored by 3.5
Game total
43.5
NYJ vs WRs
4% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
75%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.2 points, #23 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 18 points last game against a typical 3.2 (trending up).
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 75% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
57TreVeyon Henderson▼RB · NE@BUFFLEXBUF allow 17% more points to RBs8.1
4–13 rangeFLEX
Recent form
14
3
W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.9 a game
This week's matchup
@BUFGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NE underdogs by 7
Game total
49.5
BUF vs RBs
17% more points
Last game snaps
37%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.1 points, #24 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- BUF's defense has allowed 17% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 3.4 points last game against a typical 9.9 (trending down).
- Averaging 12 carries and 0.5 targets a game.
- Played 37% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
58Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLEvsPITFLEXProjected 8.1 · #25 among RBs18.6
scored · proj 8.1FLEX
Recent form
6
7
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsPITGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
CLE underdogs by 2.5
Game total
38.5
PIT vs RBs
9% fewer points
Wind
11 mph
Last game snaps
51%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.1 points, #25 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: CLE's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 14 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 51% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
59Jordan Addison▲WR · MINvsMIASTARTMore work with Justin Jefferson out8.1
3–14 rangeSTART
Recent form
0
3
18
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.1 a game
This week's matchup
vsMIAGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
MIN favored by 10
Game total
38.5
MIA vs WRs
10% fewer points
Last game snaps
98%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.1 points, #24 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Justin Jefferson out: more work to go around (about +1.5 points).
- Scored 17.5 points last game against a typical 7.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
60Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WASvsINDFLEXMore work with Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out8.0
4–13 rangeFLEX
Recent form
12
5
5
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.1 a game
This week's matchup
vsINDGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
WAS underdogs by 4.5
Game total
46.5
IND vs RBs
3% more points
Last game snaps
57%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.0 points, #26 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +1.4 points).
- Averaging 15.7 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 57% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.0 · High confidence · Full player page →

About these flex rankings

What do Must start, Start, Flex and Bench mean?: Flex rankings mix running backs, receivers and tight ends by projected points. Each player's verdict still comes from that player's rank at the player's own position.
How are these rankings made?: Each player starts from last season's scoring per game, then this season's games count for more as they pile up. We adjust for the opponent's record against the position, the points Vegas expects the team to score, and the injury report. Every projection and every sentence of explanation comes from our own model.
How often do the rankings update?: Automatically. The rankings are rebuilt about once a minute, and the injury report is re-checked every few minutes, so late injury news reaches the calls quickly. Games further ahead have less to go on until their betting lines are published.
Do PPR, Half PPR and Standard rankings differ?: Yes. Receptions are worth points in PPR, so pass-catching backs and receivers rank higher there. Switch formats above; each has its own page.

Want the full method, including where the model is wrong? Read how our fantasy numbers are built, or check the scorecard to see how past calls held up.

Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report and the NFL's official weekly report via nflverse.