65.3

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Ja'Marr Chase playing this week?

No injury designation

Ja'Marr Chase has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:17 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
MUST START#3 WR this weekHigh confidence

Must start. Scored 24.8 points last game against a typical 17.4 (trending up).

Why we say must start

  • Projected 18.2 points, #3 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
  • Scored 24.8 points last game against a typical 17.4 (trending up).
  • CIN's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
  • Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
  • Played 100% of the offense's snaps last game.

Projected points

18.2

Likely range 7–31: the middle half of outcomes

vs JAX · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 17.4 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
CIN favored by 2.5
Game total
51.5
JAX vs WRs
League average
Last game snaps
100%

All week 4 wide receiver rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

26

Height

6'0"

Weight

205 lb

College

LSU

Experience

5 seasons

Draft

2021 · Pick #5 (CIN)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 65.3?

Chase's grade of 67.7 is mostly driven by his strong points value per target, which ranked 29th of 89 qualifying receivers, even against tougher-than-average defenses. Through just 3 games, his week 3 explosion pulled the overall number up after a rough start.

Lifting the grade

  • EPA per target of +0.508 ranked 29th of 89, lifting the grade
  • Week 3 vs PIT: 21-yard catch on 4th and 2 worth +4.2 expected points
  • Week 2 vs HOU: two touchdown catches of 32 and 18 yards, each worth over +3 expected points

Holding it back

  • Week 1 vs TB: incomplete pass on 3rd and 6 cost -1.5 expected points
  • Week 1 vs TB: short catch for -4 yards on 2nd and 6 cost -1.2 expected points
  • Week 2 vs HOU: a completed pass under review still lost -1.9 expected points

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.426

Success rate

52%

WPA (sum)

0.48

Opponent adj.

0.041

Plays graded

25

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Separation
2.6
Cushion
7.4
YAC above exp
+0.7
YAC / rec
2.2
Expected YAC
1.5
Air yards share
33.3%
Intended air yds
9.0
Catch %
72.0%
WeekSeparationCushionYAC above exp
22.87.1+0.2
32.87.3+1.3
What do these mean?
Separation:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the moment of the catch.
Cushion:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the snap.
YAC above exp:
Yards after catch above what the situation would be expected to produce.
YAC / rec:
Average yards after the catch per reception.
Expected YAC:
Expected yards after the catch, based on tracking data.
Air yards share:
Share of the team's intended air yards that were thrown toward this player.
Intended air yds:
Average depth of the targets thrown his way.
Catch %:
Receptions divided by targets.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

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TgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games2518185354.517094%0%65.3

Game log

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GameTgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · PIT12998124.857100%0%90.3
Wk 2 · HOU9775226.55388%0%59.8
Wk 1 · TB421203.26094%0%9.7