Fantasy · Week 3 · 2026
Win your week. Start the right players.
Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank
Our top pick at every position
Josh Allen
BUF vs LAC
17.0scored
MUST STARTScored 40.8 last game, typical 20.3
Running back · #1Jahmyr Gibbs
DET vs NYJ
37.9scored
MUST STARTNYJ allow 17% more points to RBs
Wide receiver · #1Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA @ WAS
30.4scored
MUST STARTScored 38 last game, typical 15.8
Tight end · #1Trey McBride
ARI @ SF
12.0scored
MUST STARTProjected 12.6 · #1 among TEs
Kicker · #1Ka'imi Fairbairn
HOU @ IND
5.0scored
MUST STARTProjected 10.6 · #1 among kickers
Defense · #1Seahawks D/ST
SEA @ WAS
1.0scored
MUST STARTWAS expected to score only ~16, a good spot
Your toolkit
Full rankings
Each position has its own page: QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · Flex rankings · K rankings · D/ST rankings
Early season: only 2 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.
1Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETvsNYJMUST STARTNYJ allow 17% more points to RBs37.9
scored · proj 24.6MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 17.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs RBs
- 17% more points
- Last game snaps
- 83%
Why we say must start
- Projected 24.6 points, #1 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- NYJ's defense has allowed 17% more points to RBs than the league average.
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 22.5 carries and 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 24.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
2Kenneth Walker III▲RB · KC@MIAMUST STARTScored 20.8 last game, typical 9.320.3
scored · proj 21.7MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs RBs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 82%
Why we say must start
- Projected 21.7 points, #2 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 20.8 points last game against a typical 9.3 (trending up).
- MIA's defense has allowed 21% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 23.5 carries and 8 targets a game.
- Played 82% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 21.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
3Christian McCaffreyRB · SFvsARIMUST STARTSF expected to score ~28, a strong spot19.6
scored · proj 21.3MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 19.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs RBs
- 11% more points
- Last game snaps
- 52%
Why we say must start
- Projected 21.3 points, #3 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 10 carries and 6 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 21.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
4Jaxon Smith-Njigba▲WR · SEA@WASMUST STARTScored 38 last game, typical 15.830.4
scored · proj 21.2MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 15.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- SEA favored by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- WAS vs WRs
- 17% more points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 21.2 points, #1 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 38 points last game against a typical 15.8 (trending up).
- WAS's defense has allowed 17% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 11 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 21.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
5Derrick HenryRB · BAL@DALMUST STARTBAL expected to score ~28, a strong spot21.4
scored · proj 21.0MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 14.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- DAL vs RBs
- 14% more points
- Last game snaps
- 53%
Why we say must start
- Projected 21.0 points, #4 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- BAL's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- DAL's defense has allowed 14% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 20 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 53% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 21.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
6Jonathan Taylor▲RB · INDvsHOUMUST STARTScored 27.2 last game, typical 17.98.2
scored · proj 18.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 17.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- IND underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- HOU vs RBs
- 16% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 94%
Why we say must start
- Projected 18.9 points, #5 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 27.2 points last game against a typical 17.9 (trending up).
- Concern: HOU's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 21.5 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 18.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
7Amon-Ra St. Brown▲WR · DETvsNYJMUST STARTScored 30.7 last game, typical 149.9
scored · proj 18.5MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 14.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 95%
Why we say must start
- Projected 18.5 points, #2 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 30.7 points last game against a typical 14 (trending up).
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 13.5 targets a game.
- Played 95% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 18.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
8Bijan Robinson▼RB · ATL@GBMUST STARTProjected 16.9 · #6 among RBs34.3
scored · proj 16.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 17.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- ATL underdogs by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- GB vs RBs
- League average
- Last game snaps
- 51%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.9 points, #6 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Concern: ATL's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 18.5 carries and 7 targets a game.
- Played 51% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
9D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIvsPHIMUST STARTProjected 15.6 · #7 among RBs9.8
scored · proj 15.6MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PHI vs RBs
- 2% more points
- Last game snaps
- 68%
Why we say must start
- Projected 15.6 points, #7 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Concern: CHI's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 17 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 68% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 15.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
10Chris Olave▲WR · NOvsLVMUST STARTScored 18.6 last game, typical 12.115.2
scored · proj 15.0MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- NO favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LV vs WRs
- League average
- Last game snaps
- 84%
Why we say must start
- Projected 15.0 points, #3 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 18.6 points last game against a typical 12.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 11.5 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 15.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
11Christian WatsonWR · GBvsATLMUST STARTProjected 14.9 · #4 among WRs19.1
scored · proj 14.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs WRs
- 7% more points
- Last game snaps
- 90%
Why we say must start
- Projected 14.9 points, #4 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Averaging 9.5 targets a game.
- Played 90% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.9 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
12James Cook▲RB · BUFvsLACMUST STARTBUF expected to score ~29, a strong spot19.4
scored · proj 14.8MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 15.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- LAC vs RBs
- 17% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 74%
Why we say must start
- Projected 14.8 points, #8 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Scored 20.4 points last game against a typical 15 (trending up).
- Concern: LAC's defense has allowed 17% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 17 carries and 3.5 targets a game.
Projection 14.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
13Ashton JeantyRB · LV@NOSTARTProjected 14.6 · #9 among RBs10.8
scored · proj 14.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NO vs RBs
- 4% more points
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say start
- Projected 14.6 points, #9 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 22 carries and 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
14CeeDee Lamb▲WR · DALvsBALMUST STARTScored 31.3 last game, typical 10.916.7
scored · proj 14.2MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs WRs
- 12% more points
- Last game snaps
- 75%
Why we say must start
- Projected 14.2 points, #5 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 31.3 points last game against a typical 10.9 (trending up).
- BAL's defense has allowed 12% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 8.5 targets a game.
- Played 75% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
15Puka Nacua▼WR · LA@DENMUST STARTProjected 13.6 · #6 among WRs13.6
5–23 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 17.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs WRs
- 20% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 70%
Why we say must start
- Projected 13.6 points, #6 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Concern: DEN's defense has allowed 20% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
16Garrett Wilson▲WR · NYJ@DETMUST STARTMore work with Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out21.7
scored · proj 13.3MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NYJ underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- DET vs WRs
- 23% more points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say must start
- Projected 13.3 points, #7 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out: more work to go around (about +3.4 points).
- Scored 14.2 points last game against a typical 9.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.3 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
17Javonte Williams▼RB · DALvsBALSTARTDAL expected to score ~25, a strong spot17.3
scored · proj 13.2STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs RBs
- 1% more points
- Last game snaps
- 80%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.2 points, #10 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 6.5 points last game against a typical 12.5 (trending down).
- Averaging 12 carries and 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
18Chase BrownRB · CIN@PITSTARTProjected 13.1 · #11 among RBs7.9
scored · proj 13.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 13.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs RBs
- 5% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 70%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.1 points, #11 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 18 carries and 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
19Davante Adams▲WR · LA@DENMUST STARTScored 35.5 last game, typical 12.117.2
scored · proj 12.8MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs WRs
- 20% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 65%
Why we say must start
- Projected 12.8 points, #8 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 35.5 points last game against a typical 12.1 (trending up).
- Terrance Ferguson out: more work to go around (about +1.3 points).
- Concern: DEN's defense has allowed 20% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
Projection 12.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
20Ja'Marr Chase▲WR · CIN@PITSTARTScored 23 last game, typical 1420.3
scored · proj 12.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 14.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs WRs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.8 points, #9 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 23 points last game against a typical 14 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
21Kyren WilliamsRB · LA@DENSTARTProjected 12.7 · #12 among RBs18.8
scored · proj 12.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs RBs
- 8% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 55%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.7 points, #12 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 11.5 carries and 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 55% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
22Trey McBrideTE · ARI@SFMUST STARTProjected 12.6 · #1 among TEs12.0
scored · proj 12.6MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 13.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI underdogs by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- SF vs TEs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say must start
- Projected 12.6 points, #1 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Averaging 11.5 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
23Nico Collins▲WR · HOU@INDSTARTScored 17.7 last game, typical 11.212.5
5–22 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 11.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- IND vs WRs
- 22% more points
- Last game snaps
- 72%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.5 points, #10 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 17.7 points last game against a typical 11.2 (trending up).
- IND's defense has allowed 22% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 10 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
24Omarion Hampton▲RB · LAC@BUFSTARTBUF allow 17% more points to RBs5.6
scored · proj 12.0STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- LAC underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- BUF vs RBs
- 17% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 63%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.0 points, #13 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- BUF's defense has allowed 17% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Scored 16.5 points last game against a typical 10.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 17.5 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 63% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.0 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
25Cam Skattebo▼RB · NYGvsTENSTARTProjected 11.8 · #14 among RBs11.5
scored · proj 11.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- NYG favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- TEN vs RBs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 59%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.8 points, #14 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 7.5 points last game against a typical 11.6 (trending down).
- Averaging 15 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 59% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.8 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
26Jaylen WarrenRB · PITvsCINSTARTMore work with Rico Dowdle out19.1
scored · proj 11.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- PIT underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CIN vs RBs
- 20% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 71%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.7 points, #15 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Rico Dowdle out: more work to go around (about +1.1 points).
- CIN's defense has allowed 20% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: PIT's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 10.5 carries and 5 targets a game.
Projection 11.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
27Saquon Barkley▼RB · PHI@CHISTARTProjected 11.5 · #16 among RBs8.5
scored · proj 11.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CHI vs RBs
- 1% more points
- Last game snaps
- 16%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.5 points, #16 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 2.5 points last game against a typical 11.9 (trending down).
- Averaging 9.5 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 16% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
28David Montgomery▼RB · HOU@INDSTARTProjected 11.4 · #17 among RBs5.8
scored · proj 11.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- IND vs RBs
- 6% more points
- Last game snaps
- 52%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.4 points, #17 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 3.4 points last game against a typical 8.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 13 carries and 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
29Travis Kelce▲TE · KC@MIAMUST STARTScored 20.6 last game, typical 8.212.9
scored · proj 11.3MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs TEs
- 20% more points
- Last game snaps
- 85%
Why we say must start
- Projected 11.3 points, #2 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 20.6 points last game against a typical 8.2 (trending up).
- MIA's defense has allowed 20% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
30Chuba Hubbard▲RB · CAR@CLESTARTScored 13.4 last game, typical 6.513.0
scored · proj 11.2STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs RBs
- 4% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 65%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.2 points, #18 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 13.4 points last game against a typical 6.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 11 carries and 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 65% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
31George Kittle▲TE · SFvsARIMUST STARTARI allow 25% more points to TEs23.2
scored · proj 11.1MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs TEs
- 25% more points
- Last game snaps
- 48%
Why we say must start
- Projected 11.1 points, #3 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- ARI's defense has allowed 25% more points to TEs than the league average.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 48% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.1 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
32Rashee RiceWR · KC@MIASTARTKC expected to score ~28, a strong spot12.3
scored · proj 11.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs WRs
- 8% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 79%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.1 points, #11 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- KC's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 79% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.1 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
33Dalton Kincaid▲TE · BUFvsLACMUST STARTScored 19 last game, typical 7.62.8
scored · proj 11.0MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- LAC vs TEs
- 13% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 66%
Why we say must start
- Projected 11.0 points, #4 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 19 points last game against a typical 7.6 (trending up).
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: LAC's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
Projection 11.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
34Bucky IrvingRB · TBvsMINSTARTProjected 10.9 · #19 among RBs6.8
scored · proj 10.9STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- TB underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- MIN vs RBs
- 15% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 78%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.9 points, #19 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: MIN's defense has allowed 15% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 12.5 carries and 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 78% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.9 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
35Stefon Diggs▲WR · WASvsSEASTARTScored 19.2 last game, typical 8.85.3
scored · proj 10.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~16 pts
- Vegas line
- WAS underdogs by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- SEA vs WRs
- 25% fewer points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 51%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.7 points, #12 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 19.2 points last game against a typical 8.8 (trending up).
- Jayden Daniels and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +2.3 points).
- Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 25% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.5 targets a game.
Projection 10.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
36George Pickens▼WR · DALvsBALSTARTBAL allow 12% more points to WRs11.7
scored · proj 10.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs WRs
- 12% more points
- Last game snaps
- 76%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.7 points, #13 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- BAL's defense has allowed 12% more points to WRs than the league average.
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 7 points last game against a typical 12.9 (trending down).
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
Projection 10.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
37Parker Washington▲WR · JAXvsNESTARTScored 13.3 last game, typical 8.611.5
scored · proj 10.3STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- NE vs WRs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.3 points, #14 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 13.3 points last game against a typical 8.6 (trending up).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
38Dontayvion Wicks▲WR · PHI@CHISTARTScored 9.9 last game, typical 4.14.2
scored · proj 9.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CHI vs WRs
- 16% more points
- Last game snaps
- 62%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.8 points, #15 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 9.9 points last game against a typical 4.1 (trending up).
- DeVonta Smith out: more work to go around (about +2.6 points).
- Averaging 5 targets a game.
- Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
39Tee HigginsWR · CIN@PITSTARTProjected 9.8 · #16 among WRs18.0
scored · proj 9.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs WRs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 72%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.8 points, #16 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
40Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLEvsCARSTARTCAR allow 24% more points to RBs8.9
scored · proj 9.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CLE underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CAR vs RBs
- 24% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 67%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.6 points, #20 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- CAR's defense has allowed 24% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: CLE's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 12 carries and 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
41Dalton Schultz▲TE · HOU@INDMUST STARTScored 20 last game, typical 7.24.5
scored · proj 9.6MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- IND vs TEs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 68%
Why we say must start
- Projected 9.6 points, #5 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 20 points last game against a typical 7.2 (trending up).
- IND's defense has allowed 21% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 11 targets a game.
- Played 68% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
42Brock BowersTE · LV@NOSTARTProjected 9.4 · #6 among TEs22.6
scored · proj 9.4STARTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 10.3 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NO vs TEs
- 10% fewer points
Why we say start
- Projected 9.4 points, #6 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Averaged last season 7.2 targets a game.
Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
43Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFvsARISTARTSF expected to score ~28, a strong spot15.4
scored · proj 9.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs WRs
- 5% more points
- Last game snaps
- 60%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.4 points, #17 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 60% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
44Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR@CLESTARTProjected 9.4 · #18 among WRs2.7
scored · proj 9.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs WRs
- 3% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 80%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.4 points, #18 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
45Drake London▼WR · ATL@GBSTARTProjected 9.4 · #19 among WRs23.9
scored · proj 9.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- ATL underdogs by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- GB vs WRs
- 4% more points
- Last game snaps
- 62%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.4 points, #19 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 6.9 points last game against a typical 12 (trending down).
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
46Sam LaPorta▲TE · DETvsNYJSTARTScored 14.2 last game, typical 7.95.9
scored · proj 8.9STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs TEs
- 2% more points
- Last game snaps
- 98%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.9 points, #7 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 14.2 points last game against a typical 7.9 (trending up).
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 7.5 targets a game.
- Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.9 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
47Tyler WarrenTE · INDvsHOUSTARTMore work with Keenan Allen out10.2
scored · proj 8.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- IND underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- HOU vs TEs
- 9% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 89%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.8 points, #8 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +1.7 points).
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 89% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
48T.J. HockensonTE · MIN@TBSTARTMore work with Justin Jefferson out2.1
scored · proj 8.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TB vs TEs
- 32% more points
- Last game snaps
- 69%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.7 points, #9 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Justin Jefferson out: more work to go around (about +2.6 points).
- TB's defense has allowed 32% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
49Aaron JonesRB · MIN@TBFLEXProjected 8.6 · #21 among RBs11.7
scored · proj 8.6FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TB vs RBs
- 3% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.6 points, #21 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Averaging 17.5 carries and 0.5 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
50Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGvsTENSTARTProjected 8.5 · #10 among TEs2.3
scored · proj 8.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 3.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- NYG favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- TEN vs TEs
- League average
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 69%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.5 points, #10 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
51Jaylen Waddle▲WR · DENvsLASTARTScored 17.8 last game, typical 95.4
scored · proj 8.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DEN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LA vs WRs
- 2% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 61%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.5 points, #20 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 17.8 points last game against a typical 9 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 61% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
52Devaughn Vele▲WR · NOvsLVSTARTScored 8.9 last game, typical 4.95.4
scored · proj 8.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- NO favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LV vs WRs
- League average
- Last game snaps
- 96%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.5 points, #21 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 8.9 points last game against a typical 4.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 96% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.5 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
53Zay FlowersQ▲WR · BAL@DALSTARTIf active · Questionable — hamstring injury12.9
scored · proj 8.4STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- DAL vs WRs
- 24% more points
- Last game snaps
- 29%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.4 points, #22 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Questionable — hamstring injury.
- Official practice report: Limited in practice, hamstring injury. If active, about 12.9 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- DAL's defense has allowed 24% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Scored 23.5 points last game against a typical 10.5 (trending up).
Projection 8.4 · Low confidence · Full player page →
54Tony PollardRB · TEN@NYGFLEXNYG allow 20% more points to RBs11.6
scored · proj 8.3FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- TEN underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- NYG vs RBs
- 20% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 55%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.3 points, #22 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- NYG's defense has allowed 20% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: TEN's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 10.5 carries and 1.5 targets a game.
- Played 55% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
55Jalen CokerQ▲WR · CAR@CLESTARTIf active · Questionable — quadriceps injury2.8
scored · proj 8.3STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs WRs
- 3% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 76%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.3 points, #23 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Questionable — quadriceps injury.
- Official practice report: Limited in practice, ankle injury. If active, about 12.7 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- Scored 10.6 points last game against a typical 5.7 (trending up).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
Projection 8.3 · Low confidence · Full player page →
56Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WASvsSEAFLEXMore work with Jayden Daniels and Rachaad White out4.8
scored · proj 8.2FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~16 pts
- Vegas line
- WAS underdogs by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- SEA vs RBs
- 23% fewer points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 37%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.2 points, #23 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Jayden Daniels and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +2 points).
- Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 23% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 14 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 37% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
57Rhamondre Stevenson▼RB · NE@JAXFLEXProjected 8.1 · #24 among RBs5.3
scored · proj 8.1FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- NE underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- JAX vs RBs
- 19% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 36%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.1 points, #24 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: Scored 3.1 points last game against a typical 10.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 12 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 36% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
58J.K. Dobbins▼RB · DENvsLAFLEXProjected 8.1 · #25 among RBs5.8
scored · proj 8.1FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DEN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LA vs RBs
- 13% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 34%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.1 points, #25 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: Scored 3.6 points last game against a typical 9.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 9 carries and 0 targets a game.
- Played 34% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
59Tucker Kraft▼TE · GBvsATLSTARTProjected 8.1 · #11 among TEs4.6
scored · proj 8.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs TEs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 98%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.1 points, #11 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 2.5 points last game against a typical 10.1 (trending down).
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
60Jameson Williams▼WR · DETvsNYJSTARTDET expected to score ~28, a strong spot6.9
scored · proj 8.0STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 97%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.0 points, #24 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 4.3 points last game against a typical 9.9 (trending down).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 97% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
How we rank
Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.
We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.
The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.
Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.