Fantasy Football Rankings & Start/Sit

Early season: only 3 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.

1Jahmyr Gibbs▲RB · DET@CARMUST STARTScored 41.4 last game, typical 19.330.5
15–50 rangeMUST START
Recent form
34
23
41
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 19.3 a game
This week's matchup
@CARGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
DET favored by 3.5
Game total
50.5
CAR vs RBs
20% more points
Last game snaps
69%
Why we say must start
- Projected 30.5 points, #1 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 41.4 points last game against a typical 19.3 (trending up).
- CAR's defense has allowed 20% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 21.7 carries and 7 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 30.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
2Jaxon Smith-Njigba▲WR · SEAvsLACMUST STARTScored 35.4 last game, typical 18.925.3
10–44 rangeMUST START
Recent form
26
43
35
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 18.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsLACGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SEA favored by 7
Game total
42.5
LAC vs WRs
7% fewer points
Last game snaps
87%
Why we say must start
- Projected 25.3 points, #1 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 35.4 points last game against a typical 18.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 12 targets a game.
- Played 87% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 25.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
3Bijan Robinson▲RB · ATL@NOMUST STARTScored 35.3 last game, typical 19.522.2
11–36 rangeMUST START
Recent form
31
11
35
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 19.5 a game
This week's matchup
@NOGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs RBs
4% more points
Last game snaps
72%
Why we say must start
- Projected 22.2 points, #2 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 35.3 points last game against a typical 19.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 22 carries and 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 22.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
4Christian McCaffreyRB · SFvsDENMUST STARTSF expected to score ~25, a strong spot21.5
10–35 rangeMUST START
Recent form
14
23
22
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 21.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsDENGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SF favored by 3
Game total
47.5
DEN vs RBs
7% fewer points
Last game snaps
83%
Why we say must start
- Projected 21.5 points, #3 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 11.7 carries and 5.7 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 21.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
5Jonathan Taylor▼RB · IND@WASMUST STARTIND expected to score ~26, a strong spot21.3
10–35 rangeMUST START
Recent form
25
29
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 19.1 a game
This week's matchup
@WASGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
IND favored by 4.5
Game total
46.5
WAS vs RBs
1% more points
Last game snaps
85%
Why we say must start
- Projected 21.3 points, #4 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- IND's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 9.2 points last game against a typical 19.1 (trending down).
- Averaging 22 carries and 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 21.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
6Derrick Henry▲RB · BALvsTENMUST STARTScored 21.9 last game, typical 14.719.8
10–32 rangeMUST START
Recent form
35
18
22
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 14.7 a game
This week's matchup
vsTENGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
BAL favored by 11.5
Game total
42.5
TEN vs RBs
2% fewer points
Last game snaps
67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 19.8 points, #5 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 21.9 points last game against a typical 14.7 (trending up).
- BAL's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 22 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 19.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
7Kenneth Walker III▲RB · KC@LVMUST STARTScored 21.3 last game, typical 10.119.5
9–32 rangeMUST START
Recent form
34
24
21
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.1 a game
This week's matchup
@LVGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
KC favored by 4.5
Game total
47.5
LV vs RBs
1% fewer points
Last game snaps
73%
Why we say must start
- Projected 19.5 points, #6 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 21.3 points last game against a typical 10.1 (trending up).
- KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 21.7 carries and 6 targets a game.
- Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 19.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
8Chris Olave▲WR · NOvsATLMUST STARTScored 19.7 last game, typical 14.919.4
8–33 rangeMUST START
Recent form
28
23
20
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 14.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsATLGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
NO favored by 2.5
Game total
47.5
ATL vs WRs
12% more points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say must start
- Projected 19.4 points, #2 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 19.7 points last game against a typical 14.9 (trending up).
- ATL's defense has allowed 12% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 12 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 19.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
9Ja'Marr Chase▲WR · CINvsJAXMUST STARTScored 24.8 last game, typical 17.418.2
7–31 rangeMUST START
Recent form
3
27
25
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 17.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsJAXGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
CIN favored by 2.5
Game total
51.5
JAX vs WRs
League average
Last game snaps
100%
Why we say must start
- Projected 18.2 points, #3 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 24.8 points last game against a typical 17.4 (trending up).
- CIN's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
- Played 100% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 18.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
10Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET@CARMUST STARTDET expected to score ~27, a strong spot18.0
7–31 rangeMUST START
Recent form
29
35
12
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 17.1 a game
This week's matchup
@CARGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
DET favored by 3.5
Game total
50.5
CAR vs WRs
18% fewer points
Last game snaps
74%
Why we say must start
- Projected 18.0 points, #4 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- DET's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: CAR's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 11.7 targets a game.
- Played 74% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 18.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
11Davante Adams▲WR · LA@PHIMUST STARTScored 20.7 last game, typical 13.917.9
7–31 rangeMUST START
Recent form
6
40
21
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 13.9 a game
This week's matchup
@PHIGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
LA favored by 3.5
Game total
42.5
PHI vs WRs
6% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
83%
Why we say must start
- Projected 17.9 points, #5 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 20.7 points last game against a typical 13.9 (trending up).
- Terrance Ferguson out: more work to go around (about +1 points).
- Averaging 9.7 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 17.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
12Puka Nacua▼WR · LA@PHIMUST STARTProjected 17.7 · #6 among WRs17.7
7–30 rangeMUST START
Recent form
12
W1
Dashed line: the usual 20.8 a game
This week's matchup
@PHIGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
LA favored by 3.5
Game total
42.5
PHI vs WRs
6% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
70%
Why we say must start
- Projected 17.7 points, #6 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Concern: Scored 12.4 points last game against a typical 20.8 (trending down).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 17.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
13James CookRB · BUFvsNEMUST STARTBUF expected to score ~28, a strong spot17.4
8–28 rangeMUST START
Recent form
10
21
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 15.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsNEGame page →
Expected team score
~28 pts
Vegas line
BUF favored by 7
Game total
49.5
NE vs RBs
11% fewer points
Last game snaps
67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 17.4 points, #7 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 19.3 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 17.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
14D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIvsNYJMUST STARTNYJ allow 24% more points to RBs16.4
8–27 rangeMUST START
Recent form
32
13
11
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.7 a game
This week's matchup
vsNYJGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CHI favored by 3.5
Game total
43.5
NYJ vs RBs
24% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
69%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.4 points, #8 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- NYJ's defense has allowed 24% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 18 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
15CeeDee Lamb▲WR · DAL@HOUMUST STARTScored 20.2 last game, typical 13.416.1
6–28 rangeMUST START
Recent form
15
35
20
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 13.4 a game
This week's matchup
@HOUGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
DAL underdogs by 3
Game total
48.5
HOU vs WRs
4% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
82%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.1 points, #7 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 20.2 points last game against a typical 13.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
- Played 82% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
16Kyren Williams▲RB · LA@PHISTARTScored 21.8 last game, typical 13.916.0
8–26 rangeSTART
Recent form
16
16
22
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 13.9 a game
This week's matchup
@PHIGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
LA favored by 3.5
Game total
42.5
PHI vs RBs
2% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
71%
Why we say start
- Projected 16.0 points, #9 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 21.8 points last game against a typical 13.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 12.7 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 71% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
17Nico Collins▲WR · HOUvsDALMUST STARTScored 21.2 last game, typical 13.315.6
6–27 rangeMUST START
Recent form
21
W1
Dashed line: the usual 13.3 a game
This week's matchup
vsDALGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs WRs
18% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
72%
Why we say must start
- Projected 15.6 points, #8 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 21.2 points last game against a typical 13.3 (trending up).
- DAL's defense has allowed 18% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 10 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 15.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
18Trey McBrideTE · ARI@NYGMUST STARTProjected 15.0 · #1 among TEs15.0
5–27 rangeMUST START
Recent form
25
18
17
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 16.6 a game
This week's matchup
@NYGGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
ARI favored by 2.5
Game total
44.5
NYG vs TEs
13% fewer points
Last game snaps
91%
Why we say must start
- Projected 15.0 points, #1 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Concern: NYG's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 11.3 targets a game.
- Played 91% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 15.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
19Brock Bowers▲TE · LVvsKCMUST STARTScored 27.6 last game, typical 12.614.9
5–26 rangeMUST START
Recent form
28
W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.6 a game
This week's matchup
vsKCGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
LV underdogs by 4.5
Game total
47.5
KC vs TEs
11% fewer points
Last game snaps
79%
Why we say must start
- Projected 14.9 points, #2 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 27.6 points last game against a typical 12.6 (trending up).
- Averaging 13 targets a game.
- Played 79% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
20Stefon DiggsWR · WASvsINDSTARTMore work with Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out14.8
6–26 rangeSTART
Recent form
16
22
7
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.1 a game
This week's matchup
vsINDGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
WAS underdogs by 4.5
Game total
46.5
IND vs WRs
15% more points
Last game snaps
59%
Why we say start
- Projected 14.8 points, #9 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +2.7 points).
- IND's defense has allowed 15% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.3 targets a game.
- Played 59% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
21Garrett Wilson▲WR · NYJ@CHISTARTScored 26.7 last game, typical 11.114.6
6–25 rangeSTART
Recent form
14
17
27
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.1 a game
This week's matchup
@CHIGame page →
Expected team score
~20 pts
Vegas line
NYJ underdogs by 3.5
Game total
43.5
CHI vs WRs
8% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
94%
Why we say start
- Projected 14.6 points, #10 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 26.7 points last game against a typical 11.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
22Christian Watson▲WR · GB@TBSTARTScored 22.6 last game, typical 1114.5
6–25 rangeSTART
Recent form
33
14
23
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.0 a game
This week's matchup
@TBGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
GB favored by 3
Game total
38.5
TB vs WRs
3% fewer points
Last game snaps
80%
Why we say start
- Projected 14.5 points, #11 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 22.6 points last game against a typical 11 (trending up).
- Averaging 9.7 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
23George Kittle▲TE · SFvsDENMUST STARTScored 26.2 last game, typical 12.414.1
5–25 rangeMUST START
Recent form
3
18
26
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsDENGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SF favored by 3
Game total
47.5
DEN vs TEs
5% more points
Last game snaps
85%
Why we say must start
- Projected 14.1 points, #3 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 26.2 points last game against a typical 12.4 (trending up).
- SF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
24Tyler Warren▲TE · IND@WASMUST STARTScored 14.7 last game, typical 9.914.0
5–25 rangeMUST START
Recent form
10
14
15
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.9 a game
This week's matchup
@WASGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
IND favored by 4.5
Game total
46.5
WAS vs TEs
30% more points
Last game snaps
94%
Why we say must start
- Projected 14.0 points, #4 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 14.7 points last game against a typical 9.9 (trending up).
- Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +1.8 points).
- Averaging 7.3 targets a game.
- Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
25Tee Higgins▲WR · CINvsJAXSTARTScored 21 last game, typical 12.413.7
6–24 rangeSTART
Recent form
9
15
21
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsJAXGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
CIN favored by 2.5
Game total
51.5
JAX vs WRs
League average
Last game snaps
93%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.7 points, #12 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 21 points last game against a typical 12.4 (trending up).
- CIN's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
- Played 93% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
26Rashee RiceWR · KC@LVSTARTKC expected to score ~26, a strong spot13.6
5–23 rangeSTART
Recent form
10
12
16
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 15.0 a game
This week's matchup
@LVGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
KC favored by 4.5
Game total
47.5
LV vs WRs
2% fewer points
Last game snaps
77%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.6 points, #13 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.7 targets a game.
- Played 77% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
27Ashton JeantyRB · LVvsKCSTARTProjected 13.2 · #10 among RBs13.2
6–21 rangeSTART
Recent form
33
10
12
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsKCGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
LV underdogs by 4.5
Game total
47.5
KC vs RBs
11% fewer points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.2 points, #10 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 21 carries and 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
28Chase Brown▼RB · CINvsJAXSTARTCIN expected to score ~27, a strong spot13.0
6–21 rangeSTART
Recent form
19
11
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 14.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsJAXGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
CIN favored by 2.5
Game total
51.5
JAX vs RBs
17% fewer points
Last game snaps
70%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.0 points, #11 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- CIN's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 8.9 points last game against a typical 14.9 (trending down).
- Averaging 16.3 carries and 4.3 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
29Javonte Williams▲RB · DAL@HOUSTARTScored 18.3 last game, typical 13.512.9
6–21 rangeSTART
Recent form
24
8
18
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 13.5 a game
This week's matchup
@HOUGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
DAL underdogs by 3
Game total
48.5
HOU vs RBs
18% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
76%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.9 points, #12 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 18.3 points last game against a typical 13.5 (trending up).
- Concern: HOU's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 14.3 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
30Drake London▲WR · ATL@NOSTARTScored 28.4 last game, typical 14.412.8
5–22 rangeSTART
Recent form
6
9
28
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 14.4 a game
This week's matchup
@NOGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs WRs
10% fewer points
Last game snaps
93%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.8 points, #14 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 28.4 points last game against a typical 14.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.3 targets a game.
- Played 93% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
31Jaylen Warren▲RB · PIT@CLESTARTScored 20.6 last game, typical 12.115.6
scored · proj 12.6START
Recent form
10
10
21
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game
This week's matchup
@CLEGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
PIT favored by 2.5
Game total
38.5
CLE vs RBs
5% fewer points
Wind
11 mph
Last game snaps
90%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.6 points, #13 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 20.6 points last game against a typical 12.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 12.7 carries and 4.7 targets a game.
- Played 90% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
32Cam SkatteboRB · NYGvsARISTARTProjected 12.6 · #14 among RBs12.6
6–21 rangeSTART
Recent form
14
10
13
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsARIGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NYG underdogs by 2.5
Game total
44.5
ARI vs RBs
9% more points
Last game snaps
77%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.6 points, #14 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 16.7 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
- Played 77% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
33Bhayshul Tuten▲RB · JAX@CINSTARTScored 17 last game, typical 5.212.4
6–20 rangeSTART
Recent form
10
14
17
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.2 a game
This week's matchup
@CINGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
JAX underdogs by 2.5
Game total
51.5
CIN vs RBs
19% more points
Last game snaps
48%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.4 points, #15 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 17 points last game against a typical 5.2 (trending up).
- CIN's defense has allowed 19% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 14.3 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 48% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
34Aaron Jones▲RB · MINvsMIASTARTScored 14.2 last game, typical 8.512.3
6–20 rangeSTART
Recent form
10
11
14
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsMIAGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
MIN favored by 10
Game total
38.5
MIA vs RBs
21% more points
Last game snaps
80%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.3 points, #16 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 14.2 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending up).
- MIA's defense has allowed 21% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 17.3 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
35Bucky IrvingRB · TBvsGBSTARTProjected 12.3 · #17 among RBs12.3
6–20 rangeSTART
Recent form
20
13
8
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsGBGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
TB underdogs by 3
Game total
38.5
GB vs RBs
11% more points
Last game snaps
52%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.3 points, #17 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: TB's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 13.3 carries and 5 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
36Travis KelceTE · KC@LVMUST STARTKC expected to score ~26, a strong spot12.3
4–22 rangeMUST START
Recent form
10
25
14
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game
This week's matchup
@LVGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
KC favored by 4.5
Game total
47.5
LV vs TEs
2% fewer points
Last game snaps
79%
Why we say must start
- Projected 12.3 points, #5 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 79% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
37Michael Wilson▲WR · ARI@NYGSTARTScored 25.9 last game, typical 11.612.3
5–21 rangeSTART
Recent form
11
4
26
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.6 a game
This week's matchup
@NYGGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
ARI favored by 2.5
Game total
44.5
NYG vs WRs
10% more points
Last game snaps
93%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.3 points, #15 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 25.9 points last game against a typical 11.6 (trending up).
- Averaging 10.3 targets a game.
- Played 93% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
38Josh Downs▲WR · IND@WASSTARTScored 12.7 last game, typical 7.712.1
5–21 rangeSTART
Recent form
6
14
13
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.7 a game
This week's matchup
@WASGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
IND favored by 4.5
Game total
46.5
WAS vs WRs
22% more points
Last game snaps
68%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.1 points, #16 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 12.7 points last game against a typical 7.7 (trending up).
- Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +1.7 points).
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 68% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
39George PickensWR · DAL@HOUSTARTProjected 12.0 · #17 among WRs12.0
5–21 rangeSTART
Recent form
6
10
15
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 15.4 a game
This week's matchup
@HOUGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
DAL underdogs by 3
Game total
48.5
HOU vs WRs
4% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
85%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.0 points, #17 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
40Juwan Johnson▲TE · NOvsATLSTARTScored 23.3 last game, typical 9.511.7
4–21 rangeSTART
Recent form
14
11
23
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsATLGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
NO favored by 2.5
Game total
47.5
ATL vs TEs
10% fewer points
Last game snaps
62%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.7 points, #6 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 23.3 points last game against a typical 9.5 (trending up).
- NO's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6.3 targets a game.
- Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
41Chuba Hubbard▲RB · CARvsDETSTARTScored 15 last game, typical 7.411.5
6–19 rangeSTART
Recent form
24
14
15
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsDETGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CAR underdogs by 3.5
Game total
50.5
DET vs RBs
10% fewer points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.5 points, #18 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 15 points last game against a typical 7.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 13.7 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
42Dalton SchultzTE · HOUvsDALSTARTHOU expected to score ~26, a strong spot11.2
4–20 rangeSTART
Recent form
8
26
6
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsDALGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs TEs
2% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
54%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.2 points, #7 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- HOU's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
- Played 54% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
43Parker WashingtonWR · JAX@CINSTARTProjected 11.2 · #18 among WRs11.2
5–19 rangeSTART
Recent form
19
17
13
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.3 a game
This week's matchup
@CINGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
JAX underdogs by 2.5
Game total
51.5
CIN vs WRs
14% fewer points
Last game snaps
81%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.2 points, #18 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Concern: CIN's defense has allowed 14% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
44David MontgomeryRB · HOUvsDALSTARTDAL allow 15% more points to RBs10.7
5–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
29
4
7
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsDALGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs RBs
15% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
63%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.7 points, #19 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- DAL's defense has allowed 15% more points to RBs than the league average.
- HOU's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 12.3 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 63% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
45Harold Fannin Jr.▲TE · CLEvsPITSTARTScored 24.1 last game, typical 10.411.7
scored · proj 10.7START
Recent form
4
10
24
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsPITGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
CLE underdogs by 2.5
Game total
38.5
PIT vs TEs
9% more points
Wind
11 mph
Last game snaps
86%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.7 points, #8 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 24.1 points last game against a typical 10.4 (trending up).
- Concern: CLE's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
46Dalton Kincaid▼TE · BUFvsNESTARTBUF expected to score ~28, a strong spot10.6
4–19 rangeSTART
Recent form
18
23
4
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game
This week's matchup
vsNEGame page →
Expected team score
~28 pts
Vegas line
BUF favored by 7
Game total
49.5
NE vs TEs
12% fewer points
Last game snaps
67%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.6 points, #9 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 3.8 points last game against a typical 9 (trending down).
- Averaging 5.7 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
47Tetairoa McMillan▼WR · CARvsDETSTARTDET allow 18% more points to WRs10.5
4–18 rangeSTART
Recent form
11
15
4
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.2 a game
This week's matchup
vsDETGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CAR underdogs by 3.5
Game total
50.5
DET vs WRs
18% more points
Last game snaps
95%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.5 points, #19 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- DET's defense has allowed 18% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 3.7 points last game against a typical 11.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
- Played 95% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
48Sam LaPortaTE · DET@CARSTARTDET expected to score ~27, a strong spot10.4
4–18 rangeSTART
Recent form
10
17
7
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.7 a game
This week's matchup
@CARGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
DET favored by 3.5
Game total
50.5
CAR vs TEs
3% more points
Last game snaps
92%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.4 points, #10 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- DET's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6.3 targets a game.
- Played 92% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
49Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIvsLASTARTProjected 10.3 · #20 among RBs10.3
5–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
9
3
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsLAGame page →
Expected team score
~20 pts
Vegas line
PHI underdogs by 3.5
Game total
42.5
LA vs RBs
10% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
72%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.3 points, #20 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: PHI's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 11.3 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
50Jeremiyah Love▲RB · ARI@NYGFLEXScored 21.9 last game, typical 5.510.2
5–17 rangeFLEX
Recent form
13
8
22
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.5 a game
This week's matchup
@NYGGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
ARI favored by 2.5
Game total
44.5
NYG vs RBs
14% more points
Last game snaps
64%
Why we say flex
- Projected 10.2 points, #21 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Scored 21.9 points last game against a typical 5.5 (trending up).
- NYG's defense has allowed 14% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 13.7 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 64% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
51Kalif Raymond▲WR · CHIvsNYJSTARTScored 21 last game, typical 3.910.2
4–18 rangeSTART
Recent form
16
9
21
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 3.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsNYJGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CHI favored by 3.5
Game total
43.5
NYJ vs WRs
4% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
75%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.2 points, #20 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 21 points last game against a typical 3.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 75% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
52Zay FlowersQWR · BALvsTENSTARTIf active · Questionable — hamstring injury10.1
0–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
26
15
W1W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsTENGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
BAL favored by 11.5
Game total
42.5
TEN vs WRs
12% more points
Last game snaps
33%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.1 points, #21 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Questionable — hamstring injury.
- Official practice report: Limited in practice, hamstring injury. If active, about 15.5 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- BAL's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
Projection 10.1 · Low confidence · Full player page →
53Wan'Dale Robinson▲WR · TEN@BALSTARTBAL allow 16% more points to WRs10.0
4–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
9
2
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game
This week's matchup
@BALGame page →
Expected team score
~16 pts
Vegas line
TEN underdogs by 11.5
Game total
42.5
BAL vs WRs
16% more points
Last game snaps
63%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.0 points, #22 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- BAL's defense has allowed 16% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Scored 18.7 points last game against a typical 12.1 (trending up).
- Concern: TEN's offense is expected to score only about 16 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
Projection 10.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
54Matthew Golden▲WR · GB@TBSTARTScored 21 last game, typical 4.410.0
4–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
16
10
21
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 4.4 a game
This week's matchup
@TBGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
GB favored by 3
Game total
38.5
TB vs WRs
3% fewer points
Last game snaps
82%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.0 points, #23 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 21 points last game against a typical 4.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 10 targets a game.
- Played 82% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
55Omarion Hampton▼RB · LAC@SEAFLEXProjected 9.9 · #22 among RBs9.9
5–16 rangeFLEX
Recent form
8
18
6
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.3 a game
This week's matchup
@SEAGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
LAC underdogs by 7
Game total
42.5
SEA vs RBs
17% fewer points
Last game snaps
42%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.9 points, #22 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 17% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 16.7 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 42% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
56Jaylen Waddle▼WR · DEN@SFSTARTProjected 9.9 · #24 among WRs9.9
4–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
1
22
6
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.8 a game
This week's matchup
@SFGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
DEN underdogs by 3
Game total
47.5
SF vs WRs
League average
Last game snaps
73%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.9 points, #24 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 6.4 points last game against a typical 10.8 (trending down).
- Averaging 6.7 targets a game.
- Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
57Deebo Samuel Sr.▲WR · SFvsDENFLEXScored 15.4 last game, typical 10.59.7
4–17 rangeFLEX
Recent form
18
7
15
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsDENGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SF favored by 3
Game total
47.5
DEN vs WRs
13% fewer points
Last game snaps
76%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.7 points, #25 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Scored 15.4 points last game against a typical 10.5 (trending up).
- SF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: DEN's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 3.7 targets a game.
Projection 9.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
58Jordan Addison▲WR · MINvsMIAFLEXMore work with Justin Jefferson out9.7
4–17 rangeFLEX
Recent form
0
4
20
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsMIAGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
MIN favored by 10
Game total
38.5
MIA vs WRs
9% fewer points
Last game snaps
98%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.7 points, #26 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Justin Jefferson out: more work to go around (about +1.8 points).
- Scored 20 points last game against a typical 8.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
59Rhamondre Stevenson▼RB · NE@BUFFLEXBUF allow 15% more points to RBs9.5
5–15 rangeFLEX
Recent form
15
4
7
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.2 a game
This week's matchup
@BUFGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NE underdogs by 7
Game total
49.5
BUF vs RBs
15% more points
Last game snaps
52%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.5 points, #23 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- BUF's defense has allowed 15% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 6.8 points last game against a typical 11.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 10.3 carries and 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
60Devaughn VeleWR · NOvsATLFLEXATL allow 12% more points to WRs9.5
4–16 rangeFLEX
Recent form
20
11
7
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.0 a game
This week's matchup
vsATLGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
NO favored by 2.5
Game total
47.5
ATL vs WRs
12% more points
Last game snaps
88%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.5 points, #27 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- ATL's defense has allowed 12% more points to WRs than the league average.
- NO's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 7.3 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

How we rank

Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.

We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.

The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.

Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.