Fantasy · Week 3 · 2026

Win your week. Start the right players.

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

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Each position has its own page: QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · Flex rankings · K rankings · D/ST rankings

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Early season: only 2 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.

  1. 1DETJahmyr GibbsRB · DETvsNYJNYJMUST STARTDET expected to score ~28, a strong spot41.4scored · proj 26.9

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 19.3 a game

    This week's matchup

    DETDETvsNYJNYJNYJGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    DET favored by 7
    Game total
    49.5
    NYJ vs RBs
    14% more points
    Last game snaps
    83%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 26.9 points, #1 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • NYJ's defense has allowed 14% more points to RBs than the league average.
    • Averaging 22.5 carries and 6.5 targets a game.
    • Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 26.9 · High confidence · Full player page →

  2. 2SEAJaxon Smith-Njigba▲WR · SEA@WASWASMUST STARTScored 42.5 last game, typical 18.935.4scored · proj 25.3

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 18.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    SEASEA@WASWASWASGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    SEA favored by 8.5
    Game total
    40.5
    WAS vs WRs
    16% more points
    Wind
    13 mph
    Last game snaps
    67%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 25.3 points, #1 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 42.5 points last game against a typical 18.9 (trending up).
    • WAS's defense has allowed 16% more points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 11 targets a game.
    • Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 25.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  3. 3SFChristian McCaffreyRB · SFvsARIARIMUST STARTSF expected to score ~28, a strong spot21.6scored · proj 24.1

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 21.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    SFSFvsARIARIARIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    SF favored by 7.5
    Game total
    48.5
    ARI vs RBs
    8% more points
    Last game snaps
    52%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 24.1 points, #2 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 10 carries and 6 targets a game.
    • Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 24.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  4. 4KCKenneth Walker III▲RB · KC@MIAMIAMUST STARTScored 23.8 last game, typical 10.121.3scored · proj 23.5

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 10.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    KCKC@MIAMIAMIAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    KC favored by 10
    Game total
    45.5
    MIA vs RBs
    21% more points
    Last game snaps
    82%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 23.5 points, #3 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 23.8 points last game against a typical 10.1 (trending up).
    • MIA's defense has allowed 21% more points to RBs than the league average.
    • Averaging 23.5 carries and 8 targets a game.
    • Played 82% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 23.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

  5. 5DETAmon-Ra St. Brown▲WR · DETvsNYJNYJMUST STARTScored 35.2 last game, typical 17.111.9scored · proj 22.1

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 17.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    DETDETvsNYJNYJNYJGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    DET favored by 7
    Game total
    49.5
    NYJ vs WRs
    4% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    95%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 22.1 points, #2 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 35.2 points last game against a typical 17.1 (trending up).
    • DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 13.5 targets a game.
    • Played 95% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 22.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  6. 6BALDerrick HenryRB · BAL@DALDALMUST STARTDAL allow 14% more points to RBs21.9scored · proj 21.8

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 14.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    BALBAL@DALDALDALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    BAL favored by 3
    Game total
    53.5
    DAL vs RBs
    14% more points
    Last game snaps
    53%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 21.8 points, #4 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • DAL's defense has allowed 14% more points to RBs than the league average.
    • BAL's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 20 carries and 2 targets a game.
    • Played 53% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 21.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  7. 7INDJonathan Taylor▲RB · INDvsHOUHOUMUST STARTScored 29.2 last game, typical 19.19.2scored · proj 20.5

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 19.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    INDINDvsHOUHOUHOUGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    IND underdogs by 1.5
    Game total
    41.5
    HOU vs RBs
    15% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    94%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 20.5 points, #5 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 29.2 points last game against a typical 19.1 (trending up).
    • Concern: HOU's defense has allowed 15% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
    • Averaging 21.5 carries and 4 targets a game.
    • Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 20.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

  8. 8ATLBijan Robinson▼RB · ATL@GBGBMUST STARTProjected 19.1 · #6 among RBs35.3scored · proj 19.1

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 19.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    ATLATL@GBGBGBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    ATL underdogs by 4.5
    Game total
    43.5
    GB vs RBs
    League average
    Last game snaps
    51%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 19.1 points, #6 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Concern: ATL's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Averaging 18.5 carries and 7 targets a game.
    • Played 51% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 19.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  9. 9NOChris Olave▲WR · NOvsLVLVMUST STARTScored 22.6 last game, typical 14.919.7scored · proj 18.3

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 14.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    NONOvsLVLVLVGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    NO favored by 3.5
    Game total
    43.5
    LV vs WRs
    League average
    Last game snaps
    84%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 18.3 points, #3 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 22.6 points last game against a typical 14.9 (trending up).
    • Travis Etienne out: more work to go around (about +1.1 points).
    • Averaging 11.5 targets a game.
    • Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 18.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  10. 10DALCeeDee Lamb▲WR · DALvsBALBALMUST STARTScored 35.3 last game, typical 13.420.2scored · proj 17.3

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 13.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    DALDALvsBALBALBALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    DAL underdogs by 3
    Game total
    53.5
    BAL vs WRs
    13% more points
    Last game snaps
    75%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 17.3 points, #4 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 35.3 points last game against a typical 13.4 (trending up).
    • BAL's defense has allowed 13% more points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 8.5 targets a game.
    • Played 75% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 17.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  11. 11GBChristian WatsonWR · GBvsATLATLMUST STARTProjected 16.9 · #5 among WRs22.6scored · proj 16.9

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 11.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    GBGBvsATLATLATLGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    GB favored by 4.5
    Game total
    43.5
    ATL vs WRs
    7% more points
    Last game snaps
    90%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 16.9 points, #5 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Averaging 9.5 targets a game.
    • Played 90% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 16.9 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  12. 12LAPuka Nacua▼WR · LA@DENDENMUST STARTMore work with Terrance Ferguson out16.87–29 range

    Recent form

    W1

    Dashed line: the usual 20.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    LALA@DENDENDENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    LA underdogs by 1.5
    Game total
    43.5
    DEN vs WRs
    16% fewer points
    Wind
    10 mph
    Last game snaps
    70%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 16.8 points, #6 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Terrance Ferguson out: more work to go around (about +1.2 points).
    • Concern: DEN's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 9 targets a game.
    • Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 16.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  13. 13CHID'Andre SwiftRB · CHIvsPHIPHIMUST STARTProjected 16.6 · #7 among RBs10.8scored · proj 16.6

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 12.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    CHICHIvsPHIPHIPHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    CHI underdogs by 3.5
    Game total
    42.5
    PHI vs RBs
    League average
    Last game snaps
    68%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 16.6 points, #7 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Concern: CHI's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Averaging 17 carries and 3 targets a game.
    • Played 68% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 16.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  14. 14LVAshton JeantyRB · LV@NONOMUST STARTProjected 16.4 · #8 among RBs12.3scored · proj 16.4

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 12.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    LVLV@NONONOGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    LV underdogs by 3.5
    Game total
    43.5
    NO vs RBs
    3% more points
    Last game snaps
    81%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 16.4 points, #8 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Averaging 22 carries and 6.5 targets a game.
    • Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 16.4 · High confidence · Full player page →

  15. 15NYJGarrett Wilson▲WR · NYJ@DETDETMUST STARTMore work with Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out26.7scored · proj 16.1

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 11.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    NYJNYJ@DETDETDETGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    NYJ underdogs by 7
    Game total
    49.5
    DET vs WRs
    20% more points
    Last game snaps
    88%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 16.1 points, #7 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out: more work to go around (about +4.1 points).
    • Scored 16.7 points last game against a typical 11.1 (trending up).
    • Averaging 7 targets a game.
    • Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 16.1 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  16. 16ARITrey McBrideTE · ARI@SFSFMUST STARTProjected 15.9 · #1 among TEs16.5scored · proj 15.9

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 16.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    ARIARI@SFSFSFGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    ARI underdogs by 7.5
    Game total
    48.5
    SF vs TEs
    2% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    88%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 15.9 points, #1 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
    • Averaging 11.5 targets a game.
    • Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 15.9 · High confidence · Full player page →

  17. 17CINJa'Marr Chase▲WR · CIN@PITPITMUST STARTScored 26.5 last game, typical 17.424.8scored · proj 15.8

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 17.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    CINCIN@PITPITPITGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    CIN favored by 3.5
    Game total
    42.5
    PIT vs WRs
    1% more points
    Wind
    12 mph
    Last game snaps
    88%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 15.8 points, #8 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 26.5 points last game against a typical 17.4 (trending up).
    • Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
    • Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 15.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  18. 18BUFJames Cook▲RB · BUFvsLACLACSTARTBUF expected to score ~29, a strong spot19.4scored · proj 15.7

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 15.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    BUFBUFvsLACLACLACGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~29 pts
    Vegas line
    BUF favored by 7
    Game total
    50.5
    LAC vs RBs
    17% fewer points
    Wind
    12 mph
    Last game snaps
    74%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 15.7 points, #9 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
    • BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Scored 20.9 points last game against a typical 15.9 (trending up).
    • Concern: LAC's defense has allowed 17% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
    • Averaging 17 carries and 3.5 targets a game.

    Projection 15.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  19. 19CINChase BrownRB · CIN@PITPITSTARTProjected 15.1 · #10 among RBs8.9scored · proj 15.1

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 14.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    CINCIN@PITPITPITGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    CIN favored by 3.5
    Game total
    42.5
    PIT vs RBs
    4% fewer points
    Wind
    12 mph
    Last game snaps
    70%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 15.1 points, #10 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
    • Averaging 18 carries and 5.5 targets a game.
    • Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 15.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  20. 20LADavante Adams▲WR · LA@DENDENSTARTScored 39.5 last game, typical 13.920.7scored · proj 15.1

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 13.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    LALA@DENDENDENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    LA underdogs by 1.5
    Game total
    43.5
    DEN vs WRs
    16% fewer points
    Wind
    10 mph
    Last game snaps
    65%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 15.1 points, #9 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 39.5 points last game against a typical 13.9 (trending up).
    • Terrance Ferguson out: more work to go around (about +1.5 points).
    • Concern: DEN's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 8 targets a game.

    Projection 15.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  21. 21HOUNico Collins▲WR · HOU@INDINDSTARTScored 21.2 last game, typical 13.314.96–26 range

    Recent form

    W1

    Dashed line: the usual 13.3 a game

    This week's matchup

    HOUHOU@INDINDINDGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    HOU favored by 1.5
    Game total
    41.5
    IND vs WRs
    21% more points
    Last game snaps
    72%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 14.9 points, #10 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 21.2 points last game against a typical 13.3 (trending up).
    • IND's defense has allowed 21% more points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 10 targets a game.
    • Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 14.9 · High confidence · Full player page →

  22. 22DALJavonte Williams▼RB · DALvsBALBALSTARTDAL expected to score ~25, a strong spot18.3scored · proj 14.7

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 13.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    DALDALvsBALBALBALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    DAL underdogs by 3
    Game total
    53.5
    BAL vs RBs
    4% more points
    Last game snaps
    80%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 14.7 points, #11 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
    • DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Concern: Scored 8 points last game against a typical 13.5 (trending down).
    • Averaging 12 carries and 4.5 targets a game.
    • Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 14.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  23. 23KCTravis Kelce▲TE · KC@MIAMIAMUST STARTScored 25.1 last game, typical 10.213.9scored · proj 13.8

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    KCKC@MIAMIAMIAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    KC favored by 10
    Game total
    45.5
    MIA vs TEs
    19% more points
    Last game snaps
    85%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 13.8 points, #2 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 25.1 points last game against a typical 10.2 (trending up).
    • MIA's defense has allowed 19% more points to TEs than the league average.
    • Averaging 8 targets a game.
    • Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 13.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  24. 24LAKyren WilliamsRB · LA@DENDENSTARTProjected 13.6 · #12 among RBs21.8scored · proj 13.6

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 13.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    LALA@DENDENDENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    LA underdogs by 1.5
    Game total
    43.5
    DEN vs RBs
    10% fewer points
    Wind
    10 mph
    Last game snaps
    55%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 13.6 points, #12 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
    • Averaging 11.5 carries and 2.5 targets a game.
    • Played 55% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 13.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  25. 25KCRashee RiceWR · KC@MIAMIASTARTKC expected to score ~28, a strong spot15.8scored · proj 13.4

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 15.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    KCKC@MIAMIAMIAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    KC favored by 10
    Game total
    45.5
    MIA vs WRs
    7% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    79%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 13.4 points, #11 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • KC's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 4 targets a game.
    • Played 79% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 13.4 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  26. 26SFGeorge Kittle▲TE · SFvsARIARIMUST STARTARI allow 23% more points to TEs26.2scored · proj 13.3

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 12.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    SFSFvsARIARIARIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    SF favored by 7.5
    Game total
    48.5
    ARI vs TEs
    23% more points
    Last game snaps
    48%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 13.3 points, #3 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
    • ARI's defense has allowed 23% more points to TEs than the league average.
    • SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
    • Played 48% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 13.3 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  27. 27PITJaylen WarrenRB · PITvsCINCINSTARTMore work with Rico Dowdle out20.6scored · proj 13.2

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    PITPITvsCINCINCINGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    PIT underdogs by 3.5
    Game total
    42.5
    CIN vs RBs
    21% more points
    Wind
    12 mph
    Last game snaps
    71%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 13.2 points, #13 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
    • Rico Dowdle out: more work to go around (about +1.2 points).
    • CIN's defense has allowed 21% more points to RBs than the league average.
    • Concern: PIT's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Averaging 10.5 carries and 5 targets a game.

    Projection 13.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  28. 28LACOmarion Hampton▲RB · LAC@BUFBUFSTARTBUF allow 16% more points to RBs5.6scored · proj 13.2

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 12.3 a game

    This week's matchup

    LACLAC@BUFBUFBUFGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    LAC underdogs by 7
    Game total
    50.5
    BUF vs RBs
    16% more points
    Wind
    12 mph
    Last game snaps
    63%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 13.2 points, #14 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
    • BUF's defense has allowed 16% more points to RBs than the league average.
    • Scored 17.5 points last game against a typical 12.3 (trending up).
    • Averaging 17.5 carries and 1 targets a game.
    • Played 63% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 13.2 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  29. 29DALGeorge PickensWR · DALvsBALBALSTARTBAL allow 13% more points to WRs15.2scored · proj 13.1

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 15.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    DALDALvsBALBALBALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    DAL underdogs by 3
    Game total
    53.5
    BAL vs WRs
    13% more points
    Last game snaps
    76%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 13.1 points, #12 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • BAL's defense has allowed 13% more points to WRs than the league average.
    • DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 7 targets a game.
    • Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 13.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  30. 30BUFDalton Kincaid▲TE · BUFvsLACLACMUST STARTScored 22.5 last game, typical 93.8scored · proj 13.0

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    BUFBUFvsLACLACLACGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~29 pts
    Vegas line
    BUF favored by 7
    Game total
    50.5
    LAC vs TEs
    12% fewer points
    Wind
    12 mph
    Last game snaps
    66%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 13.0 points, #4 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 22.5 points last game against a typical 9 (trending up).
    • BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Concern: LAC's defense has allowed 12% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
    • Averaging 7 targets a game.

    Projection 13.0 · High confidence · Full player page →

  31. 31WASStefon Diggs▲WR · WASvsSEASEASTARTScored 21.7 last game, typical 11.17.3scored · proj 12.9

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 11.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    WASWASvsSEASEASEAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~16 pts
    Vegas line
    WAS underdogs by 8.5
    Game total
    40.5
    SEA vs WRs
    23% fewer points
    Wind
    13 mph
    Last game snaps
    51%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 12.9 points, #13 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 21.7 points last game against a typical 11.1 (trending up).
    • Jayden Daniels and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +2.8 points).
    • Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 23% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 7.5 targets a game.

    Projection 12.9 · High confidence · Full player page →

  32. 32NYGCam SkatteboRB · NYGvsTENTENSTARTProjected 12.8 · #15 among RBs13.0scored · proj 12.8

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 12.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    NYGNYGvsTENTENTENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    NYG favored by 2.5
    Game total
    37.5
    TEN vs RBs
    1% fewer points
    Wind
    10 mph
    Last game snaps
    59%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 12.8 points, #15 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
    • Averaging 15 carries and 2 targets a game.
    • Played 59% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 12.8 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  33. 33HOUDalton Schultz▲TE · HOU@INDINDMUST STARTScored 26 last game, typical 9.46.0scored · proj 12.6

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 9.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    HOUHOU@INDINDINDGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    HOU favored by 1.5
    Game total
    41.5
    IND vs TEs
    21% more points
    Last game snaps
    68%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 12.6 points, #5 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 26 points last game against a typical 9.4 (trending up).
    • IND's defense has allowed 21% more points to TEs than the league average.
    • Averaging 11 targets a game.
    • Played 68% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 12.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  34. 34PHISaquon Barkley▼RB · PHI@CHICHISTARTProjected 12.5 · #16 among RBs9.0scored · proj 12.5

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 12.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    PHIPHI@CHICHICHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    PHI favored by 3.5
    Game total
    42.5
    CHI vs RBs
    League average
    Last game snaps
    16%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 12.5 points, #16 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
    • Concern: Scored 3 points last game against a typical 12.9 (trending down).
    • Averaging 9.5 carries and 2 targets a game.
    • Played 16% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 12.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

  35. 35TBBucky IrvingRB · TBvsMINMINSTARTProjected 12.4 · #17 among RBs7.8scored · proj 12.4

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 11.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    TBTBvsMINMINMINGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    TB underdogs by 1.5
    Game total
    42.5
    MIN vs RBs
    15% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    78%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 12.4 points, #17 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
    • Concern: MIN's defense has allowed 15% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
    • Averaging 12.5 carries and 5.5 targets a game.
    • Played 78% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 12.4 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  36. 36HOUDavid Montgomery▼RB · HOU@INDINDSTARTProjected 12.3 · #18 among RBs6.8scored · proj 12.3

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 8.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    HOUHOU@INDINDINDGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    HOU favored by 1.5
    Game total
    41.5
    IND vs RBs
    5% more points
    Last game snaps
    52%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 12.3 points, #18 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
    • Concern: Scored 4.4 points last game against a typical 8.8 (trending down).
    • Averaging 13 carries and 2.5 targets a game.
    • Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 12.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  37. 37JAXParker Washington▲WR · JAXvsNENESTARTScored 16.8 last game, typical 10.313.0scored · proj 12.3

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 10.3 a game

    This week's matchup

    JAXJAXvsNENENEGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    JAX favored by 3
    Game total
    46.5
    NE vs WRs
    6% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    81%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 12.3 points, #14 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 16.8 points last game against a typical 10.3 (trending up).
    • Averaging 9 targets a game.
    • Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 12.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  38. 38CARChuba Hubbard▲RB · CAR@CLECLESTARTScored 14.4 last game, typical 7.415.0scored · proj 12.2

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 7.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    CARCAR@CLECLECLEGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    CAR favored by 2.5
    Game total
    41.5
    CLE vs RBs
    4% fewer points
    Wind
    12 mph
    Last game snaps
    65%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 12.2 points, #19 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 14.4 points last game against a typical 7.4 (trending up).
    • Averaging 11 carries and 2.5 targets a game.
    • Played 65% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 12.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  39. 39LVBrock BowersTE · LV@NONOSTARTProjected 11.7 · #6 among TEs27.6scored · proj 11.7

    Recent form

    No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 12.6 a game.

    This week's matchup

    LVLV@NONONOGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    LV underdogs by 3.5
    Game total
    43.5
    NO vs TEs
    8% fewer points

    Why we say start

    • Projected 11.7 points, #6 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Averaged last season 7.2 targets a game.

    Projection 11.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  40. 40CINTee HigginsWR · CIN@PITPITSTARTProjected 11.6 · #15 among WRs21.0scored · proj 11.6

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 12.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    CINCIN@PITPITPITGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    CIN favored by 3.5
    Game total
    42.5
    PIT vs WRs
    1% more points
    Wind
    12 mph
    Last game snaps
    72%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 11.6 points, #15 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Averaging 8 targets a game.
    • Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 11.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  41. 41SFDeebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFvsARIARISTARTSF expected to score ~28, a strong spot15.4scored · proj 11.5

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    SFSFvsARIARIARIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    SF favored by 7.5
    Game total
    48.5
    ARI vs WRs
    5% more points
    Last game snaps
    60%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 11.5 points, #16 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
    • Played 60% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 11.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

  42. 42PHIDontayvion Wicks▲WR · PHI@CHICHISTARTScored 12.4 last game, typical 5.15.2scored · proj 11.5

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    PHIPHI@CHICHICHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    PHI favored by 3.5
    Game total
    42.5
    CHI vs WRs
    12% more points
    Last game snaps
    62%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 11.5 points, #17 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 12.4 points last game against a typical 5.1 (trending up).
    • DeVonta Smith out: more work to go around (about +3.1 points).
    • Averaging 5 targets a game.
    • Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 11.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

  43. 43CARTetairoa McMillanWR · CAR@CLECLESTARTMore work with Jonathon Brooks out3.7scored · proj 11.4

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 11.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    CARCAR@CLECLECLEGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    CAR favored by 2.5
    Game total
    41.5
    CLE vs WRs
    5% fewer points
    Wind
    12 mph
    Last game snaps
    80%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 11.4 points, #18 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Jonathon Brooks out: more work to go around (about +1 points).
    • Averaging 9 targets a game.
    • Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 11.4 · High confidence · Full player page →

  44. 44ATLDrake London▼WR · ATL@GBGBSTARTProjected 11.4 · #19 among WRs28.4scored · proj 11.4

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 14.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    ATLATL@GBGBGBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    ATL underdogs by 4.5
    Game total
    43.5
    GB vs WRs
    4% more points
    Last game snaps
    62%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 11.4 points, #19 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Concern: Scored 8.9 points last game against a typical 14.4 (trending down).
    • Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
    • Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 11.4 · High confidence · Full player page →

  45. 45MINT.J. HockensonTE · MIN@TBTBSTARTMore work with Justin Jefferson out3.1scored · proj 11.0

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 6.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    MINMIN@TBTBTBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    MIN favored by 1.5
    Game total
    42.5
    TB vs TEs
    29% more points
    Last game snaps
    69%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 11.0 points, #7 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Justin Jefferson out: more work to go around (about +3.3 points).
    • TB's defense has allowed 29% more points to TEs than the league average.
    • Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
    • Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 11.0 · High confidence · Full player page →

  46. 46INDTyler Warren▲TE · INDvsHOUHOUSTARTMore work with Keenan Allen out14.7scored · proj 11.0

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 9.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    INDINDvsHOUHOUHOUGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    IND underdogs by 1.5
    Game total
    41.5
    HOU vs TEs
    9% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    89%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 11.0 points, #8 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +2.2 points).
    • Scored 14.4 points last game against a typical 9.9 (trending up).
    • Averaging 6 targets a game.
    • Played 89% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 11.0 · High confidence · Full player page →

  47. 47DETSam LaPorta▲TE · DETvsNYJNYJSTARTScored 17.2 last game, typical 9.77.4scored · proj 11.0

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 9.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    DETDETvsNYJNYJNYJGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    DET favored by 7
    Game total
    49.5
    NYJ vs TEs
    1% more points
    Last game snaps
    98%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 11.0 points, #9 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 17.2 points last game against a typical 9.7 (trending up).
    • DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 7.5 targets a game.
    • Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 11.0 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  48. 48CLEQuinshon JudkinsRB · CLEvsCARCARSTARTCAR allow 22% more points to RBs9.9scored · proj 10.6

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 10.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    CLECLEvsCARCARCARGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    CLE underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    41.5
    CAR vs RBs
    22% more points
    Wind
    12 mph
    Last game snaps
    67%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 10.6 points, #20 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
    • CAR's defense has allowed 22% more points to RBs than the league average.
    • Concern: CLE's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Averaging 12 carries and 3.5 targets a game.
    • Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 10.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  49. 49NODevaughn Vele▲WR · NOvsLVLVSTARTScored 11.4 last game, typical 66.9scored · proj 10.5

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 6.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    NONOvsLVLVLVGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    NO favored by 3.5
    Game total
    43.5
    LV vs WRs
    League average
    Last game snaps
    96%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 10.5 points, #20 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 11.4 points last game against a typical 6 (trending up).
    • Averaging 8 targets a game.
    • Played 96% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 10.5 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  50. 50NYGIsaiah LikelyTE · NYGvsTENTENSTARTProjected 10.4 · #10 among TEs3.3scored · proj 10.4

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 4.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    NYGNYGvsTENTENTENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    NYG favored by 2.5
    Game total
    37.5
    TEN vs TEs
    League average
    Wind
    10 mph
    Last game snaps
    69%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 10.4 points, #10 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Averaging 9 targets a game.
    • Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 10.4 · High confidence · Full player page →

  51. 51DENJaylen Waddle▲WR · DENvsLALASTARTScored 21.8 last game, typical 10.86.4scored · proj 10.3

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 10.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    DENDENvsLALALAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    DEN favored by 1.5
    Game total
    43.5
    LA vs WRs
    2% more points
    Wind
    10 mph
    Last game snaps
    61%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 10.3 points, #21 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 21.8 points last game against a typical 10.8 (trending up).
    • Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
    • Played 61% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 10.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  52. 52BALZay FlowersQ▲WR · BAL@DALDALSTARTIf active · Questionable — hamstring injury15.4scored · proj 10.1

    Recent form

    W1

    Dashed line: the usual 12.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    BALBAL@DALDALDALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    BAL favored by 3
    Game total
    53.5
    DAL vs WRs
    21% more points
    Last game snaps
    29%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 10.1 points, #22 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Questionable — hamstring injury.
    • Official practice report: Limited in practice, hamstring injury. If active, about 15.5 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
    • Scored 26 points last game against a typical 12.8 (trending up).
    • DAL's defense has allowed 21% more points to WRs than the league average.

    Projection 10.1 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  53. 53CARJalen CokerQ▲WR · CAR@CLECLESTARTIf active · Questionable — quadriceps injury3.8scored · proj 9.8

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 7.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    CARCAR@CLECLECLEGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    CAR favored by 2.5
    Game total
    41.5
    CLE vs WRs
    5% fewer points
    Wind
    12 mph
    Last game snaps
    76%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 9.8 points, #23 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Questionable — quadriceps injury.
    • Official practice report: Limited in practice, ankle injury. If active, about 15.1 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
    • Scored 14.6 points last game against a typical 7 (trending up).
    • Jonathon Brooks out: more work to go around (about +1 points).

    Projection 9.8 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  54. 54TENWan'Dale Robinson▼WR · TEN@NYGNYGSTARTProjected 9.6 · #24 among WRs18.7scored · proj 9.6

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    TENTEN@NYGNYGNYGGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~18 pts
    Vegas line
    TEN underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    37.5
    NYG vs WRs
    11% more points
    Wind
    10 mph
    Last game snaps
    53%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 9.6 points, #24 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Concern: Scored 1.9 points last game against a typical 12.1 (trending down).
    • Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
    • Played 53% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 9.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  55. 55DETJameson Williams▼WR · DETvsNYJNYJFLEXDET expected to score ~28, a strong spot8.9scored · proj 9.6

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 11.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    DETDETvsNYJNYJNYJGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    DET favored by 7
    Game total
    49.5
    NYJ vs WRs
    4% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    97%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 9.6 points, #25 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
    • DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Concern: Scored 5.3 points last game against a typical 11.6 (trending down).
    • Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
    • Played 97% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 9.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  56. 56GBTucker Kraft▼TE · GBvsATLATLSTARTProjected 9.5 · #11 among TEs6.6scored · proj 9.5

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 11.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    GBGBvsATLATLATLGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    GB favored by 4.5
    Game total
    43.5
    ATL vs TEs
    7% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    98%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 9.5 points, #11 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Concern: Scored 3.5 points last game against a typical 11.7 (trending down).
    • Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
    • Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 9.5 · Medium confidence · Full player page →

  57. 57CINMike Gesicki▲TE · CIN@PITPITSTARTScored 18.8 last game, typical 5.112.7scored · proj 9.4

    Recent form

    W1

    Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    CINCIN@PITPITPITGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    CIN favored by 3.5
    Game total
    42.5
    PIT vs TEs
    9% more points
    Wind
    12 mph
    Last game snaps
    33%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 9.4 points, #12 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 18.8 points last game against a typical 5.1 (trending up).
    • Averaging 7 targets a game.
    • Played 33% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →

  58. 58GBMatthew Golden▲WR · GBvsATLATLFLEXScored 9.8 last game, typical 4.421.0scored · proj 9.4

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 4.4 a game

    This week's matchup

    GBGBvsATLATLATLGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    GB favored by 4.5
    Game total
    43.5
    ATL vs WRs
    7% more points
    Last game snaps
    86%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 9.4 points, #26 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
    • Scored 9.8 points last game against a typical 4.4 (trending up).
    • Averaging 9 targets a game.
    • Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →

  59. 59MINAaron JonesRB · MIN@TBTBFLEXProjected 9.3 · #21 among RBs14.2scored · proj 9.3

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    MINMIN@TBTBTBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    MIN favored by 1.5
    Game total
    42.5
    TB vs RBs
    1% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    81%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 9.3 points, #21 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
    • Averaging 17.5 carries and 0.5 targets a game.
    • Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 9.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  60. 60NERhamondre Stevenson▼RB · NE@JAXJAXFLEXProjected 9.3 · #22 among RBs6.8scored · proj 9.3

    Recent form

    W1W2

    Dashed line: the usual 11.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    NENE@JAXJAXJAXGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    NE underdogs by 3
    Game total
    46.5
    JAX vs RBs
    16% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    36%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 9.3 points, #22 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
    • Concern: JAX's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
    • Averaging 12 carries and 4 targets a game.
    • Played 36% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 9.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

How we rank

Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.

We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.

The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.

Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.