Fantasy · Week 3 · 2026
Win your week. Start the right players.
Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank
Our top pick at every position
Josh Allen
BUF vs LAC
17.5scored
MUST STARTScored 40.8 last game, typical 20.3
Running back · #1Jahmyr Gibbs
DET vs NYJ
41.4scored
MUST STARTDET expected to score ~28, a strong spot
Wide receiver · #1Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA @ WAS
35.4scored
MUST STARTScored 42.5 last game, typical 18.9
Tight end · #1Trey McBride
ARI @ SF
16.5scored
MUST STARTProjected 15.9 · #1 among TEs
Kicker · #1Ka'imi Fairbairn
HOU @ IND
5.0scored
MUST STARTProjected 10.6 · #1 among kickers
Defense · #1Seahawks D/ST
SEA @ WAS
1.0scored
MUST STARTWAS expected to score only ~16, a good spot
Your toolkit
Full rankings
Each position has its own page: QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · Flex rankings · K rankings · D/ST rankings
Early season: only 2 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.
1Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETvsNYJMUST STARTDET expected to score ~28, a strong spot41.4
scored · proj 26.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 19.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs RBs
- 14% more points
- Last game snaps
- 83%
Why we say must start
- Projected 26.9 points, #1 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- NYJ's defense has allowed 14% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 22.5 carries and 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 26.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
2Jaxon Smith-Njigba▲WR · SEA@WASMUST STARTScored 42.5 last game, typical 18.935.4
scored · proj 25.3MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 18.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- SEA favored by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- WAS vs WRs
- 16% more points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 25.3 points, #1 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 42.5 points last game against a typical 18.9 (trending up).
- WAS's defense has allowed 16% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 11 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 25.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
3Christian McCaffreyRB · SFvsARIMUST STARTSF expected to score ~28, a strong spot21.6
scored · proj 24.1MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 21.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs RBs
- 8% more points
- Last game snaps
- 52%
Why we say must start
- Projected 24.1 points, #2 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 10 carries and 6 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 24.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
4Kenneth Walker III▲RB · KC@MIAMUST STARTScored 23.8 last game, typical 10.121.3
scored · proj 23.5MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs RBs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 82%
Why we say must start
- Projected 23.5 points, #3 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 23.8 points last game against a typical 10.1 (trending up).
- MIA's defense has allowed 21% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 23.5 carries and 8 targets a game.
- Played 82% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 23.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
5Amon-Ra St. Brown▲WR · DETvsNYJMUST STARTScored 35.2 last game, typical 17.111.9
scored · proj 22.1MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 17.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 95%
Why we say must start
- Projected 22.1 points, #2 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 35.2 points last game against a typical 17.1 (trending up).
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 13.5 targets a game.
- Played 95% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 22.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
6Derrick HenryRB · BAL@DALMUST STARTDAL allow 14% more points to RBs21.9
scored · proj 21.8MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 14.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- DAL vs RBs
- 14% more points
- Last game snaps
- 53%
Why we say must start
- Projected 21.8 points, #4 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- DAL's defense has allowed 14% more points to RBs than the league average.
- BAL's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 20 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 53% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 21.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
7Jonathan Taylor▲RB · INDvsHOUMUST STARTScored 29.2 last game, typical 19.19.2
scored · proj 20.5MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 19.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- IND underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- HOU vs RBs
- 15% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 94%
Why we say must start
- Projected 20.5 points, #5 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 29.2 points last game against a typical 19.1 (trending up).
- Concern: HOU's defense has allowed 15% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 21.5 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 20.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
8Bijan Robinson▼RB · ATL@GBMUST STARTProjected 19.1 · #6 among RBs35.3
scored · proj 19.1MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 19.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- ATL underdogs by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- GB vs RBs
- League average
- Last game snaps
- 51%
Why we say must start
- Projected 19.1 points, #6 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Concern: ATL's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 18.5 carries and 7 targets a game.
- Played 51% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 19.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
9Chris Olave▲WR · NOvsLVMUST STARTScored 22.6 last game, typical 14.919.7
scored · proj 18.3MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 14.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- NO favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LV vs WRs
- League average
- Last game snaps
- 84%
Why we say must start
- Projected 18.3 points, #3 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 22.6 points last game against a typical 14.9 (trending up).
- Travis Etienne out: more work to go around (about +1.1 points).
- Averaging 11.5 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 18.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
10CeeDee Lamb▲WR · DALvsBALMUST STARTScored 35.3 last game, typical 13.420.2
scored · proj 17.3MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 13.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs WRs
- 13% more points
- Last game snaps
- 75%
Why we say must start
- Projected 17.3 points, #4 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 35.3 points last game against a typical 13.4 (trending up).
- BAL's defense has allowed 13% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 8.5 targets a game.
- Played 75% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 17.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
11Christian WatsonWR · GBvsATLMUST STARTProjected 16.9 · #5 among WRs22.6
scored · proj 16.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs WRs
- 7% more points
- Last game snaps
- 90%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.9 points, #5 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Averaging 9.5 targets a game.
- Played 90% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.9 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
12Puka Nacua▼WR · LA@DENMUST STARTMore work with Terrance Ferguson out16.8
7–29 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 20.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs WRs
- 16% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 70%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.8 points, #6 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Terrance Ferguson out: more work to go around (about +1.2 points).
- Concern: DEN's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
13D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIvsPHIMUST STARTProjected 16.6 · #7 among RBs10.8
scored · proj 16.6MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PHI vs RBs
- League average
- Last game snaps
- 68%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.6 points, #7 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Concern: CHI's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 17 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 68% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
14Ashton JeantyRB · LV@NOMUST STARTProjected 16.4 · #8 among RBs12.3
scored · proj 16.4MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NO vs RBs
- 3% more points
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.4 points, #8 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Averaging 22 carries and 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
15Garrett Wilson▲WR · NYJ@DETMUST STARTMore work with Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out26.7
scored · proj 16.1MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NYJ underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- DET vs WRs
- 20% more points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.1 points, #7 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out: more work to go around (about +4.1 points).
- Scored 16.7 points last game against a typical 11.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.1 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
16Trey McBrideTE · ARI@SFMUST STARTProjected 15.9 · #1 among TEs16.5
scored · proj 15.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 16.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI underdogs by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- SF vs TEs
- 2% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say must start
- Projected 15.9 points, #1 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Averaging 11.5 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 15.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
17Ja'Marr Chase▲WR · CIN@PITMUST STARTScored 26.5 last game, typical 17.424.8
scored · proj 15.8MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 17.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs WRs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say must start
- Projected 15.8 points, #8 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 26.5 points last game against a typical 17.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 15.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
18James Cook▲RB · BUFvsLACSTARTBUF expected to score ~29, a strong spot19.4
scored · proj 15.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 15.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- LAC vs RBs
- 17% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 74%
Why we say start
- Projected 15.7 points, #9 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Scored 20.9 points last game against a typical 15.9 (trending up).
- Concern: LAC's defense has allowed 17% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 17 carries and 3.5 targets a game.
Projection 15.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
19Chase BrownRB · CIN@PITSTARTProjected 15.1 · #10 among RBs8.9
scored · proj 15.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 14.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs RBs
- 4% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 70%
Why we say start
- Projected 15.1 points, #10 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 18 carries and 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 15.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
20Davante Adams▲WR · LA@DENSTARTScored 39.5 last game, typical 13.920.7
scored · proj 15.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 13.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs WRs
- 16% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 65%
Why we say start
- Projected 15.1 points, #9 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 39.5 points last game against a typical 13.9 (trending up).
- Terrance Ferguson out: more work to go around (about +1.5 points).
- Concern: DEN's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
Projection 15.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
21Nico Collins▲WR · HOU@INDSTARTScored 21.2 last game, typical 13.314.9
6–26 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 13.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- IND vs WRs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 72%
Why we say start
- Projected 14.9 points, #10 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 21.2 points last game against a typical 13.3 (trending up).
- IND's defense has allowed 21% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 10 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
22Javonte Williams▼RB · DALvsBALSTARTDAL expected to score ~25, a strong spot18.3
scored · proj 14.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 13.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs RBs
- 4% more points
- Last game snaps
- 80%
Why we say start
- Projected 14.7 points, #11 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 8 points last game against a typical 13.5 (trending down).
- Averaging 12 carries and 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
23Travis Kelce▲TE · KC@MIAMUST STARTScored 25.1 last game, typical 10.213.9
scored · proj 13.8MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs TEs
- 19% more points
- Last game snaps
- 85%
Why we say must start
- Projected 13.8 points, #2 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 25.1 points last game against a typical 10.2 (trending up).
- MIA's defense has allowed 19% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
24Kyren WilliamsRB · LA@DENSTARTProjected 13.6 · #12 among RBs21.8
scored · proj 13.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 13.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs RBs
- 10% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 55%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.6 points, #12 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 11.5 carries and 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 55% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
25Rashee RiceWR · KC@MIASTARTKC expected to score ~28, a strong spot15.8
scored · proj 13.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 15.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs WRs
- 7% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 79%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.4 points, #11 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- KC's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 79% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.4 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
26George Kittle▲TE · SFvsARIMUST STARTARI allow 23% more points to TEs26.2
scored · proj 13.3MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs TEs
- 23% more points
- Last game snaps
- 48%
Why we say must start
- Projected 13.3 points, #3 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- ARI's defense has allowed 23% more points to TEs than the league average.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 48% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.3 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
27Jaylen WarrenRB · PITvsCINSTARTMore work with Rico Dowdle out20.6
scored · proj 13.2STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- PIT underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CIN vs RBs
- 21% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 71%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.2 points, #13 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Rico Dowdle out: more work to go around (about +1.2 points).
- CIN's defense has allowed 21% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: PIT's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 10.5 carries and 5 targets a game.
Projection 13.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
28Omarion Hampton▲RB · LAC@BUFSTARTBUF allow 16% more points to RBs5.6
scored · proj 13.2STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- LAC underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- BUF vs RBs
- 16% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 63%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.2 points, #14 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- BUF's defense has allowed 16% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Scored 17.5 points last game against a typical 12.3 (trending up).
- Averaging 17.5 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 63% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.2 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
29George PickensWR · DALvsBALSTARTBAL allow 13% more points to WRs15.2
scored · proj 13.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 15.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs WRs
- 13% more points
- Last game snaps
- 76%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.1 points, #12 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- BAL's defense has allowed 13% more points to WRs than the league average.
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
30Dalton Kincaid▲TE · BUFvsLACMUST STARTScored 22.5 last game, typical 93.8
scored · proj 13.0MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- LAC vs TEs
- 12% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 66%
Why we say must start
- Projected 13.0 points, #4 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 22.5 points last game against a typical 9 (trending up).
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: LAC's defense has allowed 12% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
Projection 13.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
31Stefon Diggs▲WR · WASvsSEASTARTScored 21.7 last game, typical 11.17.3
scored · proj 12.9STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~16 pts
- Vegas line
- WAS underdogs by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- SEA vs WRs
- 23% fewer points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 51%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.9 points, #13 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 21.7 points last game against a typical 11.1 (trending up).
- Jayden Daniels and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +2.8 points).
- Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 23% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.5 targets a game.
Projection 12.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
32Cam SkatteboRB · NYGvsTENSTARTProjected 12.8 · #15 among RBs13.0
scored · proj 12.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- NYG favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- TEN vs RBs
- 1% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 59%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.8 points, #15 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 15 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 59% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.8 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
33Dalton Schultz▲TE · HOU@INDMUST STARTScored 26 last game, typical 9.46.0
scored · proj 12.6MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- IND vs TEs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 68%
Why we say must start
- Projected 12.6 points, #5 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 26 points last game against a typical 9.4 (trending up).
- IND's defense has allowed 21% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 11 targets a game.
- Played 68% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
34Saquon Barkley▼RB · PHI@CHISTARTProjected 12.5 · #16 among RBs9.0
scored · proj 12.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CHI vs RBs
- League average
- Last game snaps
- 16%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.5 points, #16 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 3 points last game against a typical 12.9 (trending down).
- Averaging 9.5 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 16% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
35Bucky IrvingRB · TBvsMINSTARTProjected 12.4 · #17 among RBs7.8
scored · proj 12.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- TB underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- MIN vs RBs
- 15% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 78%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.4 points, #17 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: MIN's defense has allowed 15% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 12.5 carries and 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 78% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.4 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
36David Montgomery▼RB · HOU@INDSTARTProjected 12.3 · #18 among RBs6.8
scored · proj 12.3STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- IND vs RBs
- 5% more points
- Last game snaps
- 52%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.3 points, #18 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 4.4 points last game against a typical 8.8 (trending down).
- Averaging 13 carries and 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
37Parker Washington▲WR · JAXvsNESTARTScored 16.8 last game, typical 10.313.0
scored · proj 12.3STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- NE vs WRs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.3 points, #14 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 16.8 points last game against a typical 10.3 (trending up).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
38Chuba Hubbard▲RB · CAR@CLESTARTScored 14.4 last game, typical 7.415.0
scored · proj 12.2STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs RBs
- 4% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 65%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.2 points, #19 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 14.4 points last game against a typical 7.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 11 carries and 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 65% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
39Brock BowersTE · LV@NOSTARTProjected 11.7 · #6 among TEs27.6
scored · proj 11.7STARTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 12.6 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NO vs TEs
- 8% fewer points
Why we say start
- Projected 11.7 points, #6 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Averaged last season 7.2 targets a game.
Projection 11.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
40Tee HigginsWR · CIN@PITSTARTProjected 11.6 · #15 among WRs21.0
scored · proj 11.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs WRs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 72%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.6 points, #15 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
41Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFvsARISTARTSF expected to score ~28, a strong spot15.4
scored · proj 11.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs WRs
- 5% more points
- Last game snaps
- 60%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.5 points, #16 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 60% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
42Dontayvion Wicks▲WR · PHI@CHISTARTScored 12.4 last game, typical 5.15.2
scored · proj 11.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CHI vs WRs
- 12% more points
- Last game snaps
- 62%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.5 points, #17 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 12.4 points last game against a typical 5.1 (trending up).
- DeVonta Smith out: more work to go around (about +3.1 points).
- Averaging 5 targets a game.
- Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
43Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR@CLESTARTMore work with Jonathon Brooks out3.7
scored · proj 11.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs WRs
- 5% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 80%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.4 points, #18 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Jonathon Brooks out: more work to go around (about +1 points).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
44Drake London▼WR · ATL@GBSTARTProjected 11.4 · #19 among WRs28.4
scored · proj 11.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 14.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- ATL underdogs by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- GB vs WRs
- 4% more points
- Last game snaps
- 62%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.4 points, #19 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 8.9 points last game against a typical 14.4 (trending down).
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
45T.J. HockensonTE · MIN@TBSTARTMore work with Justin Jefferson out3.1
scored · proj 11.0STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TB vs TEs
- 29% more points
- Last game snaps
- 69%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.0 points, #7 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Justin Jefferson out: more work to go around (about +3.3 points).
- TB's defense has allowed 29% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
46Tyler Warren▲TE · INDvsHOUSTARTMore work with Keenan Allen out14.7
scored · proj 11.0STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- IND underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- HOU vs TEs
- 9% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 89%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.0 points, #8 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +2.2 points).
- Scored 14.4 points last game against a typical 9.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 89% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
47Sam LaPorta▲TE · DETvsNYJSTARTScored 17.2 last game, typical 9.77.4
scored · proj 11.0STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs TEs
- 1% more points
- Last game snaps
- 98%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.0 points, #9 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 17.2 points last game against a typical 9.7 (trending up).
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 7.5 targets a game.
- Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.0 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
48Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLEvsCARSTARTCAR allow 22% more points to RBs9.9
scored · proj 10.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CLE underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CAR vs RBs
- 22% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 67%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.6 points, #20 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- CAR's defense has allowed 22% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: CLE's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 12 carries and 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
49Devaughn Vele▲WR · NOvsLVSTARTScored 11.4 last game, typical 66.9
scored · proj 10.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- NO favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LV vs WRs
- League average
- Last game snaps
- 96%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.5 points, #20 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 11.4 points last game against a typical 6 (trending up).
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 96% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.5 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
50Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGvsTENSTARTProjected 10.4 · #10 among TEs3.3
scored · proj 10.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- NYG favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- TEN vs TEs
- League average
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 69%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.4 points, #10 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
51Jaylen Waddle▲WR · DENvsLASTARTScored 21.8 last game, typical 10.86.4
scored · proj 10.3STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DEN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LA vs WRs
- 2% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 61%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.3 points, #21 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 21.8 points last game against a typical 10.8 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 61% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
52Zay FlowersQ▲WR · BAL@DALSTARTIf active · Questionable — hamstring injury15.4
scored · proj 10.1STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 12.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- DAL vs WRs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 29%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.1 points, #22 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Questionable — hamstring injury.
- Official practice report: Limited in practice, hamstring injury. If active, about 15.5 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- Scored 26 points last game against a typical 12.8 (trending up).
- DAL's defense has allowed 21% more points to WRs than the league average.
Projection 10.1 · Low confidence · Full player page →
53Jalen CokerQ▲WR · CAR@CLESTARTIf active · Questionable — quadriceps injury3.8
scored · proj 9.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs WRs
- 5% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 76%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.8 points, #23 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Questionable — quadriceps injury.
- Official practice report: Limited in practice, ankle injury. If active, about 15.1 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- Scored 14.6 points last game against a typical 7 (trending up).
- Jonathon Brooks out: more work to go around (about +1 points).
Projection 9.8 · Low confidence · Full player page →
54Wan'Dale Robinson▼WR · TEN@NYGSTARTProjected 9.6 · #24 among WRs18.7
scored · proj 9.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- TEN underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- NYG vs WRs
- 11% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 53%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.6 points, #24 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 1.9 points last game against a typical 12.1 (trending down).
- Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 53% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
55Jameson Williams▼WR · DETvsNYJFLEXDET expected to score ~28, a strong spot8.9
scored · proj 9.6FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 97%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.6 points, #25 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 5.3 points last game against a typical 11.6 (trending down).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 97% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
56Tucker Kraft▼TE · GBvsATLSTARTProjected 9.5 · #11 among TEs6.6
scored · proj 9.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs TEs
- 7% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 98%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.5 points, #11 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 3.5 points last game against a typical 11.7 (trending down).
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.5 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
57Mike Gesicki▲TE · CIN@PITSTARTScored 18.8 last game, typical 5.112.7
scored · proj 9.4STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs TEs
- 9% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 33%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.4 points, #12 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 18.8 points last game against a typical 5.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 33% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
58Matthew Golden▲WR · GBvsATLFLEXScored 9.8 last game, typical 4.421.0
scored · proj 9.4FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs WRs
- 7% more points
- Last game snaps
- 86%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.4 points, #26 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Scored 9.8 points last game against a typical 4.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
59Aaron JonesRB · MIN@TBFLEXProjected 9.3 · #21 among RBs14.2
scored · proj 9.3FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TB vs RBs
- 1% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.3 points, #21 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Averaging 17.5 carries and 0.5 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
60Rhamondre Stevenson▼RB · NE@JAXFLEXProjected 9.3 · #22 among RBs6.8
scored · proj 9.3FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- NE underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- JAX vs RBs
- 16% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 36%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.3 points, #22 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: JAX's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 12 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 36% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
How we rank
Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.
We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.
The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.
Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.