Fantasy · Week 5 · 2026

Win your week. Start the right players.

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

198players ranked27must starts2teams on bye

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Each position has its own page: QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · Flex rankings · K rankings · D/ST rankings

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On bye: CAR, KC

  1. 1SEAJaxon Smith-Njigba▲WR · SEAvsSFSFMUST STARTScored 30.4 last game, typical 15.822.59–39 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 15.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    SEASEAvsSFSFSFGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    SEA favored by 3
    Game total
    47.5
    SF vs WRs
    1% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    87%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 22.5 points, #1 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 30.4 points last game against a typical 15.8 (trending up).
    • SEA's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 12 targets a game.
    • Played 87% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 22.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

  2. 2DETAmon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET@ARIARIMUST STARTDET expected to score ~29, a strong spot17.67–30 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 14.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    DETDET@ARIARIARIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~29 pts
    Vegas line
    DET favored by 5.5
    Game total
    52.5
    ARI vs WRs
    6% more points
    Last game snaps
    74%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 17.6 points, #2 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • DET's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 11.7 targets a game.
    • Played 74% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 17.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  3. 3LADavante Adams▲WR · LAvsBUFBUFMUST STARTScored 17.2 last game, typical 12.116.77–29 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    LALAvsBUFBUFBUFGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    LA favored by 2.5
    Game total
    52.5
    BUF vs WRs
    4% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    83%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 16.7 points, #3 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 17.2 points last game against a typical 12.1 (trending up).
    • LA's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 9.7 targets a game.
    • Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 16.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  4. 4LAPuka Nacua▼WR · LAvsBUFBUFMUST STARTLA expected to score ~28, a strong spot15.76–27 range

    Recent form

    W1

    Dashed line: the usual 17.3 a game

    This week's matchup

    LALAvsBUFBUFBUFGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    LA favored by 2.5
    Game total
    52.5
    BUF vs WRs
    4% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    70%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 15.7 points, #4 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • LA's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Concern: Scored 9.9 points last game against a typical 17.3 (trending down).
    • Averaging 9 targets a game.
    • Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 15.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  5. 5DALCeeDee Lamb▲WR · DALvsTBTBMUST STARTScored 16.7 last game, typical 10.914.96–26 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    DALDALvsTBTBTBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~29 pts
    Vegas line
    DAL favored by 9.5
    Game total
    47.5
    TB vs WRs
    3% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    82%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 14.9 points, #5 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 16.7 points last game against a typical 10.9 (trending up).
    • DAL's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
    • Played 82% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 14.9 · High confidence · Full player page →

  6. 6CINJa'Marr Chase▲WR · CIN@MIAMIAMUST STARTScored 20.3 last game, typical 1414.26–24 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 14.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    CINCIN@MIAMIAMIAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    CIN favored by 8.5
    Game total
    46.5
    MIA vs WRs
    10% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    100%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 14.2 points, #6 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 20.3 points last game against a typical 14 (trending up).
    • CIN's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
    • Played 100% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 14.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  7. 7GBChristian Watson▲WR · GBvsCHICHIMUST STARTScored 19.1 last game, typical 9.614.26–24 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 9.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    GBGBvsCHICHICHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    GB favored by 2.5
    Game total
    45.5
    CHI vs WRs
    10% more points
    Last game snaps
    80%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 14.2 points, #7 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Scored 19.1 points last game against a typical 9.6 (trending up).
    • Averaging 9.7 targets a game.
    • Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 14.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  8. 8NOChris OlaveWR · NOvsMINMINMUST STARTProjected 13.1 · #8 among WRs13.15–23 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    NONOvsMINMINMINGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    NO underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    44.5
    MIN vs WRs
    14% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    84%

    Why we say must start

    • Projected 13.1 points, #8 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
    • Concern: MIN's defense has allowed 14% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 12 targets a game.
    • Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 13.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  9. 9WASStefon DiggsWR · WASvsNYGNYGSTARTMore work with Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out12.45–21 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 8.8 a game

    This week's matchup

    WASWASvsNYGNYGNYGGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    WAS favored by 2.5
    Game total
    43.5
    NYG vs WRs
    11% more points
    Last game snaps
    59%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 12.4 points, #9 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +2.2 points).
    • Averaging 7.3 targets a game.
    • Played 59% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 12.4 · High confidence · Full player page →

  10. 10HOUNico Collins▲WR · HOU@TENTENSTARTScored 17.7 last game, typical 11.212.35–21 range

    Recent form

    W1

    Dashed line: the usual 11.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    HOUHOU@TENTENTENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    HOU favored by 6.5
    Game total
    39.5
    TEN vs WRs
    12% more points
    Last game snaps
    72%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 12.3 points, #10 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 17.7 points last game against a typical 11.2 (trending up).
    • TEN's defense has allowed 12% more points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 10 targets a game.
    • Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 12.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  11. 11ATLDrake London▲WR · ATLvsBALBALSTARTBAL allow 15% more points to WRs11.95–21 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 12.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    ATLATLvsBALBALBALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    ATL underdogs by 6
    Game total
    49.5
    BAL vs WRs
    15% more points
    Last game snaps
    93%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 11.9 points, #11 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • BAL's defense has allowed 15% more points to WRs than the league average.
    • Scored 23.9 points last game against a typical 12 (trending up).
    • Averaging 6.3 targets a game.
    • Played 93% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 11.9 · High confidence · Full player page →

  12. 12NYJGarrett Wilson▲WR · NYJvsCLECLESTARTScored 21.7 last game, typical 9.111.75–20 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 9.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    NYJNYJvsCLECLECLEGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    NYJ favored by 1.5
    Game total
    40.5
    CLE vs WRs
    League average
    Last game snaps
    94%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 11.7 points, #12 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 21.7 points last game against a typical 9.1 (trending up).
    • Averaging 9 targets a game.
    • Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 11.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  13. 13CINTee Higgins▲WR · CIN@MIAMIASTARTScored 18 last game, typical 10.711.25–19 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 10.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    CINCIN@MIAMIAMIAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    CIN favored by 8.5
    Game total
    46.5
    MIA vs WRs
    10% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    93%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 11.2 points, #13 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 18 points last game against a typical 10.7 (trending up).
    • CIN's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
    • Played 93% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 11.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  14. 14DALGeorge PickensWR · DALvsTBTBSTARTDAL expected to score ~29, a strong spot10.64–18 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 12.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    DALDALvsTBTBTBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~29 pts
    Vegas line
    DAL favored by 9.5
    Game total
    47.5
    TB vs WRs
    3% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    85%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 10.6 points, #14 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • DAL's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
    • Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 10.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  15. 15ARIMichael Wilson▲WR · ARIvsDETDETSTARTDET allow 20% more points to WRs10.34–18 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 9.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    ARIARIvsDETDETDETGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    ARI underdogs by 5.5
    Game total
    52.5
    DET vs WRs
    20% more points
    Last game snaps
    93%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 10.3 points, #15 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • DET's defense has allowed 20% more points to WRs than the league average.
    • Scored 20.4 points last game against a typical 9.6 (trending up).
    • Averaging 10.3 targets a game.
    • Played 93% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 10.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  16. 16JAXParker WashingtonWR · JAXvsPHIPHISTARTProjected 9.7 · #16 among WRs9.74–17 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 8.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    JAXJAXvsPHIPHIPHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    JAX favored by 3
    Game total
    44.5
    PHI vs WRs
    7% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    81%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 9.7 points, #16 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
    • Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 9.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  17. 17PITDK Metcalf▲WR · PITvsINDINDSTARTIND allow 15% more points to WRs9.64–17 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3W4

    Dashed line: the usual 9.3 a game

    This week's matchup

    PITPITvsINDINDINDGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    PIT favored by 1.5
    Game total
    44.5
    IND vs WRs
    15% more points
    Last game snaps
    97%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 9.6 points, #17 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • IND's defense has allowed 15% more points to WRs than the league average.
    • Scored 14 points last game against a typical 9.3 (trending up).
    • Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
    • Played 97% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 9.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  18. 18GBMatthew Golden▲WR · GBvsCHICHISTARTScored 18.5 last game, typical 3.59.44–16 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 3.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    GBGBvsCHICHICHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    GB favored by 2.5
    Game total
    45.5
    CHI vs WRs
    10% more points
    Last game snaps
    82%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 9.4 points, #18 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 18.5 points last game against a typical 3.5 (trending up).
    • Averaging 10 targets a game.
    • Played 82% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →

  19. 19PITRoman Wilson▲WR · PITvsINDINDSTARTScored 14.9 last game, typical 38.74–15 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3W4

    Dashed line: the usual 3.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    PITPITvsINDINDINDGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    PIT favored by 1.5
    Game total
    44.5
    IND vs WRs
    15% more points
    Last game snaps
    31%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 8.7 points, #19 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 14.9 points last game against a typical 3 (trending up).
    • IND's defense has allowed 15% more points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 6 targets a game.
    • Played 31% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 8.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  20. 20INDJosh Downs▲WR · IND@PITPITSTARTScored 10.2 last game, typical 6.18.53–15 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 6.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    INDIND@PITPITPITGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    IND underdogs by 1.5
    Game total
    44.5
    PIT vs WRs
    6% more points
    Last game snaps
    68%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 8.5 points, #20 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 10.2 points last game against a typical 6.1 (trending up).
    • Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +1.4 points).
    • Averaging 8 targets a game.
    • Played 68% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 8.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

  21. 21CHIKalif Raymond▲WR · CHI@GBGBSTARTScored 18 last game, typical 3.28.33–14 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 3.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    CHICHI@GBGBGBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    CHI underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    45.5
    GB vs WRs
    5% more points
    Last game snaps
    75%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 8.3 points, #21 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Scored 18 points last game against a typical 3.2 (trending up).
    • Averaging 7 targets a game.
    • Played 75% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 8.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  22. 22DETJameson WilliamsWR · DET@ARIARISTARTDET expected to score ~29, a strong spot8.33–14 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 9.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    DETDET@ARIARIARIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~29 pts
    Vegas line
    DET favored by 5.5
    Game total
    52.5
    ARI vs WRs
    6% more points
    Last game snaps
    82%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 8.3 points, #22 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • DET's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 5.7 targets a game.
    • Played 82% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 8.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  23. 23TBEmeka EgbukaWR · TB@DALDALSTARTDAL allow 20% more points to WRs8.23–14 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 8.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    TBTB@DALDALDALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~19 pts
    Vegas line
    TB underdogs by 9.5
    Game total
    47.5
    DAL vs WRs
    20% more points
    Last game snaps
    74%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 8.2 points, #23 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • DAL's defense has allowed 20% more points to WRs than the league average.
    • Concern: TB's offense is expected to score only about 19 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Averaging 6.7 targets a game.
    • Played 74% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 8.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  24. 24BALZay FlowersQWR · BAL@ATLATLSTARTIf active · Questionable — hamstring injury8.20–14 range

    Recent form

    W1W3

    Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    BALBAL@ATLATLATLGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    BAL favored by 6
    Game total
    49.5
    ATL vs WRs
    13% more points
    Last game snaps
    33%

    Why we say start

    • Projected 8.2 points, #24 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
    • Questionable — hamstring injury.
    • If active, about 13.3 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
    • BAL's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • ATL's defense has allowed 13% more points to WRs than the league average.

    Projection 8.2 · Low confidence · Full player page →

  25. 25MINJordan Addison▲WR · MIN@NONOFLEXMore work with Justin Jefferson out8.13–14 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 7.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    MINMIN@NONONOGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    MIN favored by 2.5
    Game total
    44.5
    NO vs WRs
    9% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    98%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 8.1 points, #25 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
    • Justin Jefferson out: more work to go around (about +1.5 points).
    • Scored 17.5 points last game against a typical 7.1 (trending up).
    • Averaging 5.3 targets a game.
    • Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 8.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  26. 26DENJaylen WaddleWR · DEN@LACLACFLEXProjected 8.0 · #26 among WRs8.03–14 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    DENDEN@LACLACLACGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    DEN favored by 2.5
    Game total
    43.5
    LAC vs WRs
    8% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    73%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 8.0 points, #26 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
    • Averaging 6.7 targets a game.
    • Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 8.0 · High confidence · Full player page →

  27. 27LVTre TuckerWR · LV@NENEFLEXProjected 7.7 · #27 among WRs7.73–13 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 7.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    LVLV@NENENEGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    LV underdogs by 3.5
    Game total
    44.5
    NE vs WRs
    3% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    57%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 7.7 points, #27 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
    • Averaging 5 targets a game.
    • Played 57% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 7.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  28. 28SFDeebo Samuel Sr.▲WR · SF@SEASEAFLEXScored 15.4 last game, typical 8.57.53–13 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    SFSF@SEASEASEAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    SF underdogs by 3
    Game total
    47.5
    SEA vs WRs
    20% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    76%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 7.5 points, #28 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
    • Scored 15.4 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending up).
    • Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 20% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 3.7 targets a game.
    • Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 7.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

  29. 29CHILuther Burden III▲WR · CHI@GBGBFLEXScored 16.3 last game, typical 6.17.53–13 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 6.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    CHICHI@GBGBGBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    CHI underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    45.5
    GB vs WRs
    5% more points
    Last game snaps
    61%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 7.5 points, #29 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
    • Scored 16.3 points last game against a typical 6.1 (trending up).
    • Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
    • Played 61% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 7.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

  30. 30JAXJakobi Meyers▲WR · JAXvsPHIPHIFLEXScored 15.9 last game, typical 7.77.43–13 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 7.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    JAXJAXvsPHIPHIPHIGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    JAX favored by 3
    Game total
    44.5
    PHI vs WRs
    7% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    81%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 7.4 points, #30 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
    • Scored 15.9 points last game against a typical 7.7 (trending up).
    • Averaging 3.7 targets a game.
    • Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 7.4 · High confidence · Full player page →

  31. 31TENWan'Dale Robinson▲WR · TENvsHOUHOUFLEXScored 15.2 last game, typical 9.67.23–12 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 9.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    TENTENvsHOUHOUHOUGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~17 pts
    Vegas line
    TEN underdogs by 6.5
    Game total
    39.5
    HOU vs WRs
    4% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    63%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 7.2 points, #31 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
    • Scored 15.2 points last game against a typical 9.6 (trending up).
    • Concern: TEN's offense is expected to score only about 17 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Averaging 6 targets a game.
    • Played 63% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 7.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  32. 32BUFDJ MooreWR · BUF@LALAFLEXBUF expected to score ~25, a strong spot7.23–12 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 7.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    BUFBUF@LALALAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    BUF underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    52.5
    LA vs WRs
    2% more points
    Last game snaps
    64%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 7.2 points, #32 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
    • BUF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 6 targets a game.
    • Played 64% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 7.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  33. 33CHIRome OdunzeWR · CHI@GBGBFLEXProjected 7.2 · #33 among WRs7.23–12 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 8.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    CHICHI@GBGBGBGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~22 pts
    Vegas line
    CHI underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    45.5
    GB vs WRs
    5% more points
    Last game snaps
    85%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 7.2 points, #33 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
    • Averaging 4.3 targets a game.
    • Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 7.2 · High confidence · Full player page →

  34. 34PHIDontayvion WicksWR · PHI@JAXJAXFLEXMore work with DeVonta Smith out7.13–12 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 4.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    PHIPHI@JAXJAXJAXGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    PHI underdogs by 3
    Game total
    44.5
    JAX vs WRs
    2% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    88%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 7.1 points, #34 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
    • DeVonta Smith out: more work to go around (about +1.6 points).
    • Averaging 5 targets a game.
    • Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 7.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  35. 35MINJauan Jennings▼WR · MIN@NONOFLEXProjected 7.1 · #35 among WRs7.13–12 range

    Recent form

    W1W3

    Dashed line: the usual 8.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    MINMIN@NONONOGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    MIN favored by 2.5
    Game total
    44.5
    NO vs WRs
    9% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    80%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 7.1 points, #35 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
    • Concern: Scored 0.6 points last game against a typical 8.6 (trending down).
    • Averaging 1.5 targets a game.
    • Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 7.1 · High confidence · Full player page →

  36. 36DENCourtland SuttonWR · DEN@LACLACFLEXProjected 6.8 · #36 among WRs6.83–12 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 9.6 a game

    This week's matchup

    DENDEN@LACLACLACGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    DEN favored by 2.5
    Game total
    43.5
    LAC vs WRs
    8% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    87%

    Why we say flex

    • Projected 6.8 points, #36 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
    • Averaging 5.3 targets a game.
    • Played 87% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 6.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  37. 37PITMichael Pittman▼WR · PITvsINDINDBENCHScored 2.5 last game, typical 8.56.83–12 range

    Recent form

    W1W3W4

    Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game

    This week's matchup

    PITPITvsINDINDINDGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    PIT favored by 1.5
    Game total
    44.5
    IND vs WRs
    15% more points
    Last game snaps
    72%

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 6.8 points, #37 among WRs this week, 0.0 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
    • Scored 2.5 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending down).
    • Upside: IND's defense has allowed 15% more points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 4 targets a game.
    • Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 6.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  38. 38NERomeo DoubsWR · NEvsLVLVBENCHProjected 6.7 · 0.1 behind #366.73–12 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 7.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    NENEvsLVLVLVGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    NE favored by 3.5
    Game total
    44.5
    LV vs WRs
    3% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    73%

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 6.7 points, #38 among WRs this week, 0.1 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
    • Averaging 3.7 targets a game.
    • Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 6.7 · High confidence · Full player page →

  39. 39NYGMalik NabersWR · NYG@WASWASBENCHProjected 6.5 · 0.3 behind #366.53–11 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 8.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    NYGNYG@WASWASWASGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    NYG underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    43.5
    WAS vs WRs
    23% more points
    Last game snaps
    78%

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 6.5 points, #39 among WRs this week, 0.3 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
    • Upside: WAS's defense has allowed 23% more points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 6.3 targets a game.
    • Played 78% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 6.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

  40. 40BALRashod BatemanWR · BAL@ATLATLBENCHProjected 6.5 · 0.3 behind #366.53–11 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 3.1 a game

    This week's matchup

    BALBAL@ATLATLATLGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~28 pts
    Vegas line
    BAL favored by 6
    Game total
    49.5
    ATL vs WRs
    13% more points
    Last game snaps
    88%

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 6.5 points, #40 among WRs this week, 0.3 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
    • Upside: BAL's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 4.3 targets a game.
    • Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 6.5 · High confidence · Full player page →

  41. 41ARIMarvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARIvsDETDETBENCHProjected 6.4 · 0.4 behind #366.43–11 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 7.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    ARIARIvsDETDETDETGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    ARI underdogs by 5.5
    Game total
    52.5
    DET vs WRs
    20% more points
    Last game snaps
    77%

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 6.4 points, #41 among WRs this week, 0.4 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
    • Upside: DET's defense has allowed 20% more points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 3 targets a game.
    • Played 77% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 6.4 · High confidence · Full player page →

  42. 42NODevaughn VeleWR · NOvsMINMINBENCHMIN allow 14% fewer points to WRs6.43–11 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 4.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    NONOvsMINMINMINGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    NO underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    44.5
    MIN vs WRs
    14% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    88%

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 6.4 points, #42 among WRs this week, 0.4 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
    • MIN's defense has allowed 14% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 7.3 targets a game.
    • Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 6.4 · High confidence · Full player page →

  43. 43CLEDenzel Boston▲WR · CLE@NYJNYJBENCHCLE expected to score only ~20, a tough spot6.33–11 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3W4

    Dashed line: the usual 4.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    CLECLE@NYJNYJNYJGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~20 pts
    Vegas line
    CLE underdogs by 1.5
    Game total
    40.5
    NYJ vs WRs
    4% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    95%

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 6.3 points, #43 among WRs this week, 0.5 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
    • CLE's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Upside: Scored 10.9 points last game against a typical 4.2 (trending up).
    • Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
    • Played 95% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 6.3 · High confidence · Full player page →

  44. 44NEMack Hollins▲WR · NEvsLVLVBENCHProjected 5.8 · 1.0 behind #365.82–10 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 5.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    NENEvsLVLVLVGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~24 pts
    Vegas line
    NE favored by 3.5
    Game total
    44.5
    LV vs WRs
    3% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    76%

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 5.8 points, #44 among WRs this week, 1.0 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
    • Upside: Scored 11.7 points last game against a typical 5.7 (trending up).
    • Averaging 5.3 targets a game.
    • Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 5.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  45. 45MIAMalik WashingtonWR · MIAvsCINCINBENCHCIN allow 13% fewer points to WRs5.82–10 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 4.9 a game

    This week's matchup

    MIAMIAvsCINCINCINGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~19 pts
    Vegas line
    MIA underdogs by 8.5
    Game total
    46.5
    CIN vs WRs
    13% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    86%

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 5.8 points, #45 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
    • CIN's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
    • MIA's offense is expected to score only about 19 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
    • Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 5.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  46. 46LACQuentin Johnston▼WR · LACvsDENDENBENCHScored 5.5 last game, typical 9.75.82–10 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 9.7 a game

    This week's matchup

    LACLACvsDENDENDENGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~21 pts
    Vegas line
    LAC underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    43.5
    DEN vs WRs
    15% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    87%

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 5.8 points, #46 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
    • Scored 5.5 points last game against a typical 9.7 (trending down).
    • DEN's defense has allowed 15% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 5.7 targets a game.
    • Played 87% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 5.8 · High confidence · Full player page →

  47. 47BUFKhalil Shakir▼WR · BUF@LALABENCHScored 1.1 last game, typical 7.25.62–10 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 7.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    BUFBUF@LALALAGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    BUF underdogs by 2.5
    Game total
    52.5
    LA vs WRs
    2% more points
    Last game snaps
    73%

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 5.6 points, #47 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
    • Scored 1.1 points last game against a typical 7.2 (trending down).
    • Upside: BUF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
    • Averaging 5 targets a game.
    • Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 5.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  48. 48SEACooper Kupp▲WR · SEAvsSFSFBENCHProjected 5.6 · #48 among WRs5.62–10 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 5.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    SEASEAvsSFSFSFGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~25 pts
    Vegas line
    SEA favored by 3
    Game total
    47.5
    SF vs WRs
    1% fewer points
    Last game snaps
    67%

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 5.6 points, #48 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
    • Upside: Scored 12.6 points last game against a typical 5.2 (trending up).
    • Averaging 3.3 targets a game.
    • Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 5.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  49. 49TBChris Godwin Jr.WR · TB@DALDALBENCHTB expected to score only ~19, a tough spot5.62–10 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 6.0 a game

    This week's matchup

    TBTB@DALDALDALGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~19 pts
    Vegas line
    TB underdogs by 9.5
    Game total
    47.5
    DAL vs WRs
    20% more points
    Last game snaps
    62%

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 5.6 points, #49 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
    • TB's offense is expected to score only about 19 points, a tough scoring spot.
    • Upside: DAL's defense has allowed 20% more points to WRs than the league average.
    • Averaging 3.7 targets a game.
    • Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 5.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

  50. 50WASAntonio WilliamsWR · WASvsNYGNYGBENCHProjected 5.6 · #50 among WRs5.62–10 range

    Recent form

    W1W2W3

    Dashed line: the usual 4.2 a game

    This week's matchup

    WASWASvsNYGNYGNYGGame page →
    Expected team score
    ~23 pts
    Vegas line
    WAS favored by 2.5
    Game total
    43.5
    NYG vs WRs
    11% more points
    Last game snaps
    41%

    Why we say bench

    • Projected 5.6 points, #50 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
    • Upside: Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +1.1 points).
    • Averaging 3.7 targets a game.
    • Played 41% of the offense's snaps last game.

    Projection 5.6 · High confidence · Full player page →

How we rank

Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.

We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.

The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.

Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.