28.2

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Khalil Shakir playing this week?

No injury designation

Khalil Shakir has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game against the New England Patriots.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:18 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
BENCH#44 WR this weekHigh confidence

Bench. Scored 1.6 points last game against a typical 9.2 (trending down).

Why we say bench

  • Projected 7.4 points, #44 among WRs this week, 1.1 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
  • Scored 1.6 points last game against a typical 9.2 (trending down).
  • Upside: BUF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
  • Averaging 5 targets a game.
  • Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.

Projected points

7.4

Likely range 3–13: the middle half of outcomes

vs NE · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 9.2 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~28 pts
Vegas line
BUF favored by 7
Game total
49.5
NE vs WRs
3% fewer points
Last game snaps
73%

All week 4 wide receiver rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

26

Height

6'0"

Weight

190 lb

College

Boise State

Experience

4 seasons

Draft

2022 · Pick #148 (BUF)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 28.2?

Shakir's grade is low mainly because his targets produced little expected points, ranking 42nd of 62 receivers. His success rate, target share and win probability added were all near the middle of the pack and didn't move the grade much. This covers only 15 targets over 3 games, a small sample.

Holding it back

  • EPA per target of +0.065 ranked 42nd of 62 receivers, which pulled the grade down.
  • Week 1 at HOU, 3rd and 4: an incomplete pass to Shakir in the fourth quarter cost 1.4 expected points.
  • Week 2 vs DET, 3rd and 8: another fourth-quarter incompletion to Shakir cost 1.4 expected points.

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.065

Success rate

40%

WPA (sum)

0.04

Opponent adj.

0.001

Plays graded

15

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 2 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Separation
3.5
Cushion
7.0
YAC above exp
-1.3
YAC / rec
6.2
Expected YAC
7.4
Air yards share
13.2%
Intended air yds
7.2
Catch %
53.3%
WeekSeparationCushionYAC above exp
13.98.3-1.2
24.35.7-0.8
What do these mean?
Separation:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the moment of the catch.
Cushion:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the snap.
YAC above exp:
Yards after catch above what the situation would be expected to produce.
YAC / rec:
Average yards after the catch per reception.
Expected YAC:
Expected yards after the catch, based on tracking data.
Air yards share:
Share of the team's intended air yards that were thrown toward this player.
Intended air yds:
Average depth of the targets thrown his way.
Catch %:
Receptions divided by targets.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

TgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games15894017.411558%2%28.2

Game log

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GameTgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · LAC31601.64873%4%17.9
Wk 2 · DET633806.83649%3%43.2
Wk 1 · HOU645009.03153%0%36.6