Fantasy · Week 3 · 2026
Win your week. Start the right players.
Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank
Our top pick at every position
Josh Allen
BUF vs LAC
16.5scored
MUST STARTScored 40.8 last game, typical 20.3
Running back · #1Jahmyr Gibbs
DET vs NYJ
34.4scored
MUST STARTNYJ allow 21% more points to RBs
Wide receiver · #1Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA @ WAS
25.4scored
MUST STARTScored 33.5 last game, typical 12.7
Tight end · #1Trey McBride
ARI @ SF
7.5scored
MUST STARTProjected 9.4 · #1 among TEs
Kicker · #1Ka'imi Fairbairn
HOU @ IND
5.0scored
MUST STARTProjected 10.6 · #1 among kickers
Defense · #1Seahawks D/ST
SEA @ WAS
1.0scored
MUST STARTWAS expected to score only ~16, a good spot
Your toolkit
Full rankings
Each position has its own page: QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · Flex rankings · K rankings · D/ST rankings
Early season: only 2 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.
1Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETvsNYJMUST STARTNYJ allow 21% more points to RBs34.4
scored · proj 22.2MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 15.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs RBs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 83%
Why we say must start
- Projected 22.2 points, #1 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- NYJ's defense has allowed 21% more points to RBs than the league average.
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 22.5 carries and 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 22.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
2Derrick HenryRB · BAL@DALMUST STARTBAL expected to score ~28, a strong spot20.9
scored · proj 20.2MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 13.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- DAL vs RBs
- 13% more points
- Last game snaps
- 53%
Why we say must start
- Projected 20.2 points, #2 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- BAL's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- DAL's defense has allowed 13% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 20 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 53% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 20.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
3Kenneth Walker III▲RB · KC@MIAMUST STARTScored 17.8 last game, typical 8.519.3
scored · proj 19.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs RBs
- 22% more points
- Last game snaps
- 82%
Why we say must start
- Projected 19.9 points, #3 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 17.8 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending up).
- MIA's defense has allowed 22% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 23.5 carries and 8 targets a game.
- Played 82% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 19.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
4Christian McCaffreyRB · SFvsARIMUST STARTSF expected to score ~28, a strong spot17.6
scored · proj 18.6MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 16.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs RBs
- 14% more points
- Last game snaps
- 52%
Why we say must start
- Projected 18.6 points, #4 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- ARI's defense has allowed 14% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 10 carries and 6 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 18.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
5Jonathan Taylor▲RB · INDvsHOUMUST STARTScored 25.2 last game, typical 16.67.2
scored · proj 17.4MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 16.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- IND underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- HOU vs RBs
- 18% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 94%
Why we say must start
- Projected 17.4 points, #5 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 25.2 points last game against a typical 16.6 (trending up).
- Concern: HOU's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 21.5 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 17.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
6Jaxon Smith-Njigba▲WR · SEA@WASMUST STARTScored 33.5 last game, typical 12.725.4
scored · proj 16.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- SEA favored by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- WAS vs WRs
- 18% more points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.9 points, #1 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 33.5 points last game against a typical 12.7 (trending up).
- WAS's defense has allowed 18% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 11 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
7Amon-Ra St. Brown▲WR · DETvsNYJMUST STARTScored 26.2 last game, typical 10.97.9
scored · proj 14.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 95%
Why we say must start
- Projected 14.9 points, #2 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 26.2 points last game against a typical 10.9 (trending up).
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 13.5 targets a game.
- Played 95% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
8Bijan Robinson▼RB · ATL@GBMUST STARTProjected 14.7 · #6 among RBs33.3
scored · proj 14.7MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 15.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- ATL underdogs by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- GB vs RBs
- 1% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 51%
Why we say must start
- Projected 14.7 points, #6 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Concern: ATL's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 18.5 carries and 7 targets a game.
- Played 51% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
9D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIvsPHIMUST STARTProjected 14.7 · #7 among RBs8.8
scored · proj 14.7MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PHI vs RBs
- 4% more points
- Last game snaps
- 68%
Why we say must start
- Projected 14.7 points, #7 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Concern: CHI's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 17 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 68% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
10James Cook▲RB · BUFvsLACMUST STARTBUF expected to score ~29, a strong spot19.4
scored · proj 13.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 14.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- LAC vs RBs
- 17% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 74%
Why we say must start
- Projected 13.9 points, #8 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Scored 19.9 points last game against a typical 14.2 (trending up).
- Concern: LAC's defense has allowed 17% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 17 carries and 3.5 targets a game.
Projection 13.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
11Christian WatsonWR · GBvsATLMUST STARTProjected 13.0 · #3 among WRs15.6
scored · proj 13.0MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs WRs
- 9% more points
- Last game snaps
- 90%
Why we say must start
- Projected 13.0 points, #3 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Averaging 9.5 targets a game.
- Played 90% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.0 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
12Ashton JeantyRB · LV@NOSTARTProjected 12.8 · #9 among RBs9.3
scored · proj 12.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NO vs RBs
- 6% more points
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.8 points, #9 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 22 carries and 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
13Kyren WilliamsRB · LA@DENSTARTProjected 11.8 · #10 among RBs15.8
scored · proj 11.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs RBs
- 6% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 55%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.8 points, #10 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 11.5 carries and 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 55% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
14Javonte Williams▼RB · DALvsBALSTARTDAL expected to score ~25, a strong spot16.3
scored · proj 11.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs RBs
- 3% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 80%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.7 points, #11 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 5 points last game against a typical 11.5 (trending down).
- Averaging 12 carries and 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
15Chris Olave▲WR · NOvsLVMUST STARTScored 14.6 last game, typical 9.310.7
scored · proj 11.6MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- NO favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LV vs WRs
- 1% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 84%
Why we say must start
- Projected 11.6 points, #4 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 14.6 points last game against a typical 9.3 (trending up).
- Averaging 11.5 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
16Chase BrownRB · CIN@PITSTARTProjected 11.1 · #12 among RBs6.9
scored · proj 11.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs RBs
- 7% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 70%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.1 points, #12 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 18 carries and 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
17Omarion Hampton▲RB · LAC@BUFSTARTBUF allow 19% more points to RBs5.6
scored · proj 10.9STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- LAC underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- BUF vs RBs
- 19% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 63%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.9 points, #13 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- BUF's defense has allowed 19% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Scored 15.5 points last game against a typical 9.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 17.5 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 63% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.9 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
18CeeDee Lamb▲WR · DALvsBALMUST STARTScored 27.3 last game, typical 8.413.2
scored · proj 10.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs WRs
- 10% more points
- Last game snaps
- 75%
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.9 points, #5 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 27.3 points last game against a typical 8.4 (trending up).
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 8.5 targets a game.
- Played 75% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
19Cam Skattebo▼RB · NYGvsTENSTARTProjected 10.8 · #14 among RBs10.0
scored · proj 10.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- NYG favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- TEN vs RBs
- 4% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 59%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.8 points, #14 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 5.5 points last game against a typical 10.4 (trending down).
- Averaging 15 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 59% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.8 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
20David Montgomery▼RB · HOU@INDSTARTProjected 10.6 · #15 among RBs4.8
scored · proj 10.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- IND vs RBs
- 6% more points
- Last game snaps
- 52%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.6 points, #15 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 2.4 points last game against a typical 7.5 (trending down).
- Averaging 13 carries and 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
21Davante Adams▲WR · LA@DENMUST STARTScored 31.5 last game, typical 10.213.7
scored · proj 10.6MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs WRs
- 25% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 65%
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.6 points, #6 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 31.5 points last game against a typical 10.2 (trending up).
- Concern: DEN's defense has allowed 25% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 65% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
22Garrett Wilson▲WR · NYJ@DETMUST STARTMore work with Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out16.7
scored · proj 10.5MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NYJ underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- DET vs WRs
- 26% more points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.5 points, #7 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out: more work to go around (about +2.7 points).
- DET's defense has allowed 26% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.5 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
23Puka Nacua▼WR · LA@DENMUST STARTProjected 10.5 · #8 among WRs10.5
4–18 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 13.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs WRs
- 25% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 70%
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.5 points, #8 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Concern: DEN's defense has allowed 25% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
24Saquon Barkley▼RB · PHI@CHISTARTProjected 10.4 · #16 among RBs8.0
scored · proj 10.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CHI vs RBs
- 3% more points
- Last game snaps
- 16%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.4 points, #16 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 2 points last game against a typical 10.9 (trending down).
- Averaging 9.5 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 16% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
25Jaylen WarrenRB · PITvsCINSTARTMore work with Rico Dowdle out17.6
scored · proj 10.3STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- PIT underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CIN vs RBs
- 20% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 71%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.3 points, #17 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Rico Dowdle out: more work to go around (about +1.1 points).
- CIN's defense has allowed 20% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: PIT's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 10.5 carries and 5 targets a game.
Projection 10.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
26Nico Collins▲WR · HOU@INDSTARTScored 14.2 last game, typical 9.110.2
4–18 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 9.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- IND vs WRs
- 22% more points
- Last game snaps
- 72%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.2 points, #9 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 14.2 points last game against a typical 9.1 (trending up).
- IND's defense has allowed 22% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 10 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
27Chuba Hubbard▲RB · CAR@CLESTARTScored 12.4 last game, typical 5.611.0
scored · proj 10.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs RBs
- 4% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 65%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.1 points, #18 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 12.4 points last game against a typical 5.6 (trending up).
- Averaging 11 carries and 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 65% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
28Ja'Marr Chase▲WR · CIN@PITSTARTScored 19.5 last game, typical 10.515.8
scored · proj 9.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs WRs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.8 points, #10 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 19.5 points last game against a typical 10.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
29Bucky IrvingRB · TBvsMINSTARTProjected 9.4 · #19 among RBs5.8
scored · proj 9.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- TB underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- MIN vs RBs
- 14% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 78%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.4 points, #19 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: MIN's defense has allowed 14% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 12.5 carries and 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 78% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.4 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
30Trey McBrideTE · ARI@SFMUST STARTProjected 9.4 · #1 among TEs7.5
scored · proj 9.4MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI underdogs by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- SF vs TEs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say must start
- Projected 9.4 points, #1 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Averaging 11.5 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
31Dalton Kincaid▲TE · BUFvsLACMUST STARTScored 15.5 last game, typical 6.21.8
scored · proj 9.1MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- LAC vs TEs
- 13% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 66%
Why we say must start
- Projected 9.1 points, #2 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 15.5 points last game against a typical 6.2 (trending up).
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: LAC's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
Projection 9.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
32George Kittle▲TE · SFvsARIMUST STARTARI allow 27% more points to TEs20.2
scored · proj 8.8MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs TEs
- 27% more points
- Last game snaps
- 48%
Why we say must start
- Projected 8.8 points, #3 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- ARI's defense has allowed 27% more points to TEs than the league average.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 48% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
33Travis Kelce▲TE · KC@MIAMUST STARTScored 16.1 last game, typical 6.211.9
scored · proj 8.8MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs TEs
- 20% more points
- Last game snaps
- 85%
Why we say must start
- Projected 8.8 points, #4 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 16.1 points last game against a typical 6.2 (trending up).
- MIA's defense has allowed 20% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
34Rashee RiceWR · KC@MIASTARTKC expected to score ~28, a strong spot8.8
scored · proj 8.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs WRs
- 8% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 79%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.8 points, #11 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- KC's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 79% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
35Stefon Diggs▲WR · WASvsSEASTARTScored 16.7 last game, typical 6.63.3
scored · proj 8.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~16 pts
- Vegas line
- WAS underdogs by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- SEA vs WRs
- 28% fewer points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 51%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.6 points, #12 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 16.7 points last game against a typical 6.6 (trending up).
- Jayden Daniels and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +1.9 points).
- Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 28% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.5 targets a game.
Projection 8.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
36Quinshon Judkins▼RB · CLEvsCARSTARTCAR allow 27% more points to RBs7.9
scored · proj 8.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CLE underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CAR vs RBs
- 27% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 67%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.4 points, #20 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- CAR's defense has allowed 27% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 4.8 points last game against a typical 9 (trending down).
- Averaging 12 carries and 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
37Parker WashingtonWR · JAXvsNESTARTProjected 8.3 · #13 among WRs10.0
scored · proj 8.3STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- NE vs WRs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.3 points, #13 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
38George Pickens▼WR · DALvsBALSTARTDAL expected to score ~25, a strong spot8.2
scored · proj 8.2STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs WRs
- 10% more points
- Last game snaps
- 76%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.2 points, #14 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 4 points last game against a typical 10.5 (trending down).
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
39Dontayvion Wicks▲WR · PHI@CHISTARTScored 7.4 last game, typical 3.13.2
scored · proj 8.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 3.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CHI vs WRs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 62%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.1 points, #15 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 7.4 points last game against a typical 3.1 (trending up).
- DeVonta Smith out: more work to go around (about +2 points).
- Averaging 5 targets a game.
- Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
40Tee HigginsWR · CIN@PITSTARTProjected 8.1 · #16 among WRs15.0
scored · proj 8.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs WRs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 72%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.1 points, #16 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
41Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WASvsSEAFLEXMore work with Jayden Daniels and Rachaad White out4.3
scored · proj 7.9FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~16 pts
- Vegas line
- WAS underdogs by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- SEA vs RBs
- 29% fewer points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 37%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.9 points, #21 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Jayden Daniels and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +1.9 points).
- Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 29% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 14 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 37% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
42Aaron Jones▲RB · MIN@TBFLEXScored 10.5 last game, typical 6.59.2
scored · proj 7.8FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TB vs RBs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.8 points, #22 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Scored 10.5 points last game against a typical 6.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 17.5 carries and 0.5 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
43J.K. Dobbins▼RB · DENvsLAFLEXProjected 7.7 · #23 among RBs5.3
scored · proj 7.7FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DEN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LA vs RBs
- 16% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 34%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.7 points, #23 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: Scored 3.6 points last game against a typical 8.7 (trending down).
- Averaging 9 carries and 0 targets a game.
- Played 34% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.7 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
44Tony PollardRB · TEN@NYGFLEXNYG allow 22% more points to RBs9.6
scored · proj 7.5FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- TEN underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- NYG vs RBs
- 22% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 55%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.5 points, #24 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- NYG's defense has allowed 22% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: TEN's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 10.5 carries and 1.5 targets a game.
- Played 55% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
45Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR@CLESTARTProjected 7.5 · #17 among WRs1.7
scored · proj 7.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs WRs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 80%
Why we say start
- Projected 7.5 points, #17 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
46Drake London▼WR · ATL@GBSTARTProjected 7.5 · #18 among WRs19.4
scored · proj 7.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- ATL underdogs by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- GB vs WRs
- 5% more points
- Last game snaps
- 62%
Why we say start
- Projected 7.5 points, #18 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 4.9 points last game against a typical 9.6 (trending down).
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
47Kyle MonangaiRB · CHIvsPHIFLEXProjected 7.4 · #25 among RBs3.1
scored · proj 7.4FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PHI vs RBs
- 4% more points
- Last game snaps
- 34%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.4 points, #25 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: CHI's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 10 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 34% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 7.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
48TreVeyon Henderson▲RB · NE@JAXFLEXScored 13.6 last game, typical 92.9
scored · proj 7.2FLEXRecent form
W2Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- NE underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- JAX vs RBs
- 23% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 60%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.2 points, #26 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Scored 13.6 points last game against a typical 9 (trending up).
- Concern: JAX's defense has allowed 23% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 16 carries and 0 targets a game.
- Played 60% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
49Bhayshul Tuten▲RB · JAXvsNEFLEXScored 12.2 last game, typical 4.615.0
scored · proj 7.2FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- NE vs RBs
- 22% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 51%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.2 points, #27 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Scored 12.2 points last game against a typical 4.6 (trending up).
- Concern: NE's defense has allowed 22% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 14 carries and 1.5 targets a game.
- Played 51% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
50Brock BowersTE · LV@NOMUST STARTProjected 7.2 · #5 among TEs17.6
scored · proj 7.2MUST STARTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 8.0 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NO vs TEs
- 15% fewer points
Why we say must start
- Projected 7.2 points, #5 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Concern: NO's defense has allowed 15% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaged last season 7.2 targets a game.
Projection 7.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
51Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFvsARISTARTSF expected to score ~28, a strong spot15.4
scored · proj 7.2STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs WRs
- 5% more points
- Last game snaps
- 60%
Why we say start
- Projected 7.2 points, #19 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 60% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
52Rhamondre Stevenson▼RB · NE@JAXFLEXProjected 6.9 · #28 among RBs3.8
scored · proj 6.9FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- NE underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- JAX vs RBs
- 23% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 36%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.9 points, #28 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: Scored 2.6 points last game against a typical 9.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 12 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 36% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
53Tucker Kraft▼TE · GBvsATLSTARTProjected 6.8 · #6 among TEs2.6
scored · proj 6.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs TEs
- 3% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 98%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.8 points, #6 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 1.5 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending down).
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.8 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
54Sam LaPorta▲TE · DETvsNYJSTARTScored 11.2 last game, typical 6.14.4
scored · proj 6.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs TEs
- 3% more points
- Last game snaps
- 98%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.7 points, #7 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 11.2 points last game against a typical 6.1 (trending up).
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 7.5 targets a game.
- Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.7 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
55Jalen CokerQWR · CAR@CLESTARTIf active · Questionable — quadriceps injury1.8
scored · proj 6.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs WRs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 76%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.7 points, #20 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Questionable — quadriceps injury.
- Official practice report: Limited in practice, ankle injury. If active, about 10.3 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.7 · Low confidence · Full player page →
56Jaylen Waddle▲WR · DENvsLASTARTScored 13.8 last game, typical 7.24.4
scored · proj 6.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DEN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LA vs WRs
- 3% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 61%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.7 points, #21 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 13.8 points last game against a typical 7.2 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 61% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
57Tyler WarrenTE · INDvsHOUSTARTMore work with Keenan Allen out5.7
scored · proj 6.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- IND underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- HOU vs TEs
- 11% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 89%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.6 points, #8 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +1.2 points).
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 89% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
58Dalton Schultz▲TE · HOU@INDSTARTScored 14 last game, typical 53.0
scored · proj 6.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- IND vs TEs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 68%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.6 points, #9 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 14 points last game against a typical 5 (trending up).
- IND's defense has allowed 21% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 11 targets a game.
- Played 68% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
59DJ Moore▼WR · BUFvsLACSTARTBUF expected to score ~29, a strong spot6.7
scored · proj 6.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- LAC vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 31%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.6 points, #22 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored -0.1 points last game against a typical 6.4 (trending down).
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 31% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
60Zay FlowersQ▲WR · BAL@DALSTARTIf active · Questionable — hamstring injury10.4
scored · proj 6.6STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 8.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- DAL vs WRs
- 28% more points
- Last game snaps
- 29%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.6 points, #23 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Questionable — hamstring injury.
- Official practice report: Limited in practice, hamstring injury. If active, about 10.1 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- DAL's defense has allowed 28% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Scored 21 points last game against a typical 8.3 (trending up).
Projection 6.6 · Low confidence · Full player page →
How we rank
Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.
We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.
The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.
Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.