Fantasy · Week 5 · 2026
Win your week. Start the right players.
Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank
Our top pick at every position
Josh Allen
BUF @ LA
24.7proj
MUST STARTBUF expected to score ~25, a strong spot
Running back · #1Jahmyr Gibbs
DET @ ARI
24.5proj
MUST STARTScored 34.4 last game, typical 15.3
Wide receiver · #1Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA vs SF
18.5proj
MUST STARTScored 25.4 last game, typical 12.7
Tight end · #1Trey McBride
ARI vs DET
10.3proj
MUST STARTDET allow 55% more points to TEs
Kicker · #1Brandon Aubrey
DAL vs TB
11.4proj
MUST STARTDAL expected to score ~29, plenty of drives
Defense · #1Texans D/ST
HOU @ TEN
10.3proj
MUST STARTTEN offense gives defenses 36% more points
Your toolkit
Full rankings
Each position has its own page: QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · Flex rankings · K rankings · D/ST rankings
On bye: CAR, KC
1Jaxon Smith-Njigba▲WR · SEAvsSFMUST STARTScored 25.4 last game, typical 12.718.5
7–32 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 12.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- SEA favored by 3
- Game total
- 47.5
- SF vs WRs
- 3% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 87%
Why we say must start
- Projected 18.5 points, #1 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 25.4 points last game against a typical 12.7 (trending up).
- SEA's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 12 targets a game.
- Played 87% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 18.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
2Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET@ARIMUST STARTDET expected to score ~29, a strong spot14.4
6–25 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 5.5
- Game total
- 52.5
- ARI vs WRs
- 9% more points
- Last game snaps
- 74%
Why we say must start
- Projected 14.4 points, #2 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- DET's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 11.7 targets a game.
- Played 74% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
3Davante AdamsWR · LAvsBUFMUST STARTLA expected to score ~28, a strong spot14.1
6–24 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- LA favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 52.5
- BUF vs WRs
- 5% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 83%
Why we say must start
- Projected 14.1 points, #3 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- LA's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 9.7 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
4Puka Nacua▼WR · LAvsBUFMUST STARTLA expected to score ~28, a strong spot12.4
5–21 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 13.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- LA favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 52.5
- BUF vs WRs
- 5% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 70%
Why we say must start
- Projected 12.4 points, #4 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- LA's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 7.4 points last game against a typical 13.7 (trending down).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
5Christian Watson▲WR · GBvsCHIMUST STARTScored 15.6 last game, typical 8.112.2
5–21 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 8.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 45.5
- CHI vs WRs
- 14% more points
- Last game snaps
- 80%
Why we say must start
- Projected 12.2 points, #5 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 15.6 points last game against a typical 8.1 (trending up).
- CHI's defense has allowed 14% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 9.7 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
6CeeDee Lamb▲WR · DALvsTBMUST STARTScored 13.2 last game, typical 8.412.0
5–21 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 8.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL favored by 9.5
- Game total
- 47.5
- TB vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 82%
Why we say must start
- Projected 12.0 points, #6 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 13.2 points last game against a typical 8.4 (trending up).
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
- Played 82% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
7Ja'Marr Chase▲WR · CIN@MIAMUST STARTScored 15.8 last game, typical 10.510.9
4–19 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 8.5
- Game total
- 46.5
- MIA vs WRs
- 11% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 100%
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.9 points, #7 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 15.8 points last game against a typical 10.5 (trending up).
- CIN's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
- Played 100% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
8Nico Collins▲WR · HOU@TENMUST STARTScored 14.2 last game, typical 9.110.0
4–17 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 9.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 6.5
- Game total
- 39.5
- TEN vs WRs
- 13% more points
- Last game snaps
- 72%
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.0 points, #8 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 14.2 points last game against a typical 9.1 (trending up).
- TEN's defense has allowed 13% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 10 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
9Chris OlaveWR · NOvsMINSTARTProjected 10.0 · #9 among WRs10.0
4–17 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 9.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NO underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- MIN vs WRs
- 14% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 84%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.0 points, #9 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Concern: MIN's defense has allowed 14% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 12 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
10Stefon DiggsWR · WASvsNYGSTARTMore work with Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out9.8
4–17 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- WAS favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NYG vs WRs
- 12% more points
- Last game snaps
- 59%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.8 points, #10 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +1.8 points).
- NYG's defense has allowed 12% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.3 targets a game.
- Played 59% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
11Drake London▲WR · ATLvsBALSTARTBAL allow 13% more points to WRs9.4
4–16 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 9.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- ATL underdogs by 6
- Game total
- 49.5
- BAL vs WRs
- 13% more points
- Last game snaps
- 93%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.4 points, #11 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- BAL's defense has allowed 13% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Scored 19.4 points last game against a typical 9.6 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.3 targets a game.
- Played 93% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
12Garrett Wilson▲WR · NYJvsCLESTARTScored 16.7 last game, typical 7.19.3
4–16 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 7.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NYJ favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- CLE vs WRs
- 3% more points
- Last game snaps
- 94%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.3 points, #12 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 16.7 points last game against a typical 7.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
13Tee Higgins▲WR · CIN@MIASTARTScored 15 last game, typical 99.2
4–16 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 8.5
- Game total
- 46.5
- MIA vs WRs
- 11% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 93%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.2 points, #13 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 15 points last game against a typical 9 (trending up).
- CIN's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
- Played 93% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
14George PickensWR · DALvsTBSTARTDAL expected to score ~29, a strong spot8.0
3–14 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL favored by 9.5
- Game total
- 47.5
- TB vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 85%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.0 points, #14 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
15Michael Wilson▲WR · ARIvsDETSTARTDET allow 23% more points to WRs7.8
3–13 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 7.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI underdogs by 5.5
- Game total
- 52.5
- DET vs WRs
- 23% more points
- Last game snaps
- 93%
Why we say start
- Projected 7.8 points, #15 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- DET's defense has allowed 23% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Scored 14.9 points last game against a typical 7.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 10.3 targets a game.
- Played 93% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
16Parker WashingtonWR · JAXvsPHISTARTProjected 7.8 · #16 among WRs7.8
3–13 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 7.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 44.5
- PHI vs WRs
- 9% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say start
- Projected 7.8 points, #16 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
17DK MetcalfWR · PITvsINDSTARTIND allow 15% more points to WRs7.7
3–13 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3W4Dashed line: the usual 7.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PIT favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- IND vs WRs
- 15% more points
- Last game snaps
- 97%
Why we say start
- Projected 7.7 points, #17 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- IND's defense has allowed 15% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
- Played 97% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
18Matthew Golden▲WR · GBvsCHISTARTScored 16 last game, typical 2.67.7
3–13 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 2.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 45.5
- CHI vs WRs
- 14% more points
- Last game snaps
- 82%
Why we say start
- Projected 7.7 points, #18 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 16 points last game against a typical 2.6 (trending up).
- CHI's defense has allowed 14% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 10 targets a game.
- Played 82% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
19Roman Wilson▲WR · PITvsINDSTARTScored 13.4 last game, typical 2.47.4
3–13 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3W4Dashed line: the usual 2.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PIT favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- IND vs WRs
- 15% more points
- Last game snaps
- 31%
Why we say start
- Projected 7.4 points, #19 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 13.4 points last game against a typical 2.4 (trending up).
- IND's defense has allowed 15% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 31% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
20Zay FlowersQWR · BAL@ATLSTARTIf active · Questionable — hamstring injury6.8
0–12 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W3Dashed line: the usual 8.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 6
- Game total
- 49.5
- ATL vs WRs
- 14% more points
- Last game snaps
- 33%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.8 points, #20 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Questionable — hamstring injury.
- If active, about 11.0 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- BAL's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- ATL's defense has allowed 14% more points to WRs than the league average.
Projection 6.8 · Low confidence · Full player page →
21Jameson WilliamsWR · DET@ARISTARTDET expected to score ~29, a strong spot6.7
3–12 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 8.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 5.5
- Game total
- 52.5
- ARI vs WRs
- 9% more points
- Last game snaps
- 82%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.7 points, #21 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- DET's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.7 targets a game.
- Played 82% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
22Emeka EgbukaWR · TB@DALSTARTDAL allow 24% more points to WRs6.6
3–11 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 7.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~19 pts
- Vegas line
- TB underdogs by 9.5
- Game total
- 47.5
- DAL vs WRs
- 24% more points
- Last game snaps
- 74%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.6 points, #22 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- DAL's defense has allowed 24% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Concern: TB's offense is expected to score only about 19 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 6.7 targets a game.
- Played 74% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
23Jordan Addison▲WR · MIN@NOSTARTMore work with Justin Jefferson out6.6
3–11 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- NO vs WRs
- 9% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 98%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.6 points, #23 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Justin Jefferson out: more work to go around (about +1.2 points).
- Scored 15 points last game against a typical 5.8 (trending up).
- Averaging 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
24Tre TuckerWR · LV@NESTARTProjected 6.3 · #24 among WRs6.3
3–11 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- NE vs WRs
- 2% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 57%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.3 points, #24 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 5 targets a game.
- Played 57% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
25Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN@LACFLEXProjected 6.3 · #25 among WRs6.3
3–11 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 7.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DEN favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LAC vs WRs
- 9% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 73%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.3 points, #25 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Averaging 6.7 targets a game.
- Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
26Josh DownsWR · IND@PITFLEXMore work with Keenan Allen out6.3
3–11 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 4.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- IND underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- PIT vs WRs
- 5% more points
- Last game snaps
- 68%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.3 points, #26 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +1.1 points).
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 68% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
27Kalif Raymond▲WR · CHI@GBFLEXScored 15 last game, typical 2.56.3
3–11 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 2.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 45.5
- GB vs WRs
- 5% more points
- Last game snaps
- 75%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.3 points, #27 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Scored 15 points last game against a typical 2.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 75% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
28Deebo Samuel Sr.▲WR · SF@SEAFLEXScored 15.4 last game, typical 6.56.0
2–10 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- SF underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 47.5
- SEA vs WRs
- 23% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 76%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.0 points, #28 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Scored 15.4 points last game against a typical 6.5 (trending up).
- Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 23% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
29Rome OdunzeWR · CHI@GBFLEXProjected 5.9 · #29 among WRs5.9
2–10 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 7.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 45.5
- GB vs WRs
- 5% more points
- Last game snaps
- 85%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.9 points, #29 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Averaging 4.3 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
30DJ MooreWR · BUF@LAFLEXBUF expected to score ~25, a strong spot5.8
2–10 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 52.5
- LA vs WRs
- 3% more points
- Last game snaps
- 64%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.8 points, #30 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 64% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
31Jauan Jennings▼WR · MIN@NOFLEXProjected 5.7 · #31 among WRs5.7
2–10 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W3Dashed line: the usual 7.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- NO vs WRs
- 9% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 80%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.7 points, #31 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Concern: Scored 0.1 points last game against a typical 7 (trending down).
- Averaging 1.5 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
32Luther Burden III▲WR · CHI@GBFLEXScored 12.8 last game, typical 4.85.7
2–10 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 4.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 45.5
- GB vs WRs
- 5% more points
- Last game snaps
- 61%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.7 points, #32 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Scored 12.8 points last game against a typical 4.8 (trending up).
- Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
- Played 61% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
33Dontayvion WicksWR · PHI@JAXFLEXMore work with DeVonta Smith out5.6
2–10 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 3.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 44.5
- JAX vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.6 points, #33 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- DeVonta Smith out: more work to go around (about +1.2 points).
- Averaging 5 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
34Jakobi Meyers▲WR · JAXvsPHIFLEXScored 12.4 last game, typical 5.65.5
2–10 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 44.5
- PHI vs WRs
- 9% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.5 points, #34 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Scored 12.4 points last game against a typical 5.6 (trending up).
- Averaging 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
35Romeo DoubsWR · NEvsLVFLEXProjected 5.4 · #35 among WRs5.4
2–9 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- NE favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- LV vs WRs
- 5% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 73%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.4 points, #35 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Averaging 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
36Denzel Boston▲WR · CLE@NYJFLEXScored 8.9 last game, typical 3.25.3
2–9 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3W4Dashed line: the usual 3.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CLE underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- NYJ vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 95%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.3 points, #36 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Scored 8.9 points last game against a typical 3.2 (trending up).
- Concern: CLE's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 95% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
37Wan'Dale Robinson▲WR · TENvsHOUBENCHTEN expected to score only ~17, a tough spot5.3
2–9 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 7.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~17 pts
- Vegas line
- TEN underdogs by 6.5
- Game total
- 39.5
- HOU vs WRs
- 2% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 63%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.3 points, #37 among WRs this week, 0.0 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- TEN's offense is expected to score only about 17 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Upside: Scored 11.7 points last game against a typical 7 (trending up).
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 63% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
38Rashod BatemanWR · BAL@ATLBENCHProjected 5.3 · 0.0 behind #365.3
2–9 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 2.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 6
- Game total
- 49.5
- ATL vs WRs
- 14% more points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.3 points, #38 among WRs this week, 0.0 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: BAL's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 4.3 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
39Courtland SuttonWR · DEN@LACBENCHProjected 5.2 · 0.1 behind #365.2
2–9 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 7.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DEN favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LAC vs WRs
- 9% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 87%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.2 points, #39 among WRs this week, 0.1 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Averaging 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 87% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
40Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · ARIvsDETBENCHProjected 5.2 · 0.1 behind #365.2
2–9 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI underdogs by 5.5
- Game total
- 52.5
- DET vs WRs
- 23% more points
- Last game snaps
- 77%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.2 points, #40 among WRs this week, 0.1 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: DET's defense has allowed 23% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
- Played 77% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
41Malik NabersWR · NYG@WASBENCHProjected 5.0 · 0.3 behind #365.0
2–9 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NYG underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- WAS vs WRs
- 25% more points
- Last game snaps
- 78%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.0 points, #41 among WRs this week, 0.3 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: WAS's defense has allowed 25% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 6.3 targets a game.
- Played 78% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
42Michael Pittman▼WR · PITvsINDBENCHScored 1.5 last game, typical 6.45.0
2–9 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W3W4Dashed line: the usual 6.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PIT favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- IND vs WRs
- 15% more points
- Last game snaps
- 72%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.0 points, #42 among WRs this week, 0.3 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 1.5 points last game against a typical 6.4 (trending down).
- Upside: IND's defense has allowed 15% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
43Devaughn VeleWR · NOvsMINBENCHMIN allow 14% fewer points to WRs4.8
2–8 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 3.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NO underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- MIN vs WRs
- 14% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.8 points, #43 among WRs this week, 0.5 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- MIN's defense has allowed 14% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.3 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
44Quentin Johnston▼WR · LACvsDENBENCHScored 4 last game, typical 84.6
2–8 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 8.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LAC underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs WRs
- 19% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 87%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.6 points, #44 among WRs this week, 0.7 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 4 points last game against a typical 8 (trending down).
- DEN's defense has allowed 19% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 5.7 targets a game.
- Played 87% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
45Cooper Kupp▲WR · SEAvsSFBENCHProjected 4.3 · #45 among WRs4.3
2–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 3.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- SEA favored by 3
- Game total
- 47.5
- SF vs WRs
- 3% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 67%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.3 points, #45 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Upside: Scored 10.6 points last game against a typical 3.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 3.3 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
46Kayshon BoutteWR · HOU@TENBENCHProjected 4.3 · #46 among WRs4.3
2–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 6.5
- Game total
- 39.5
- TEN vs WRs
- 13% more points
- Last game snaps
- 69%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.3 points, #46 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Upside: TEN's defense has allowed 13% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
47Antonio WilliamsWR · WASvsNYGBENCHProjected 4.3 · #47 among WRs4.3
2–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 3.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- WAS favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NYG vs WRs
- 12% more points
- Last game snaps
- 41%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.3 points, #47 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Upside: NYG's defense has allowed 12% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 41% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
48Brian Thomas Jr.▼WR · JAXvsPHIBENCHScored 0.8 last game, typical 5.74.2
2–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 44.5
- PHI vs WRs
- 9% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 37%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.2 points, #48 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Scored 0.8 points last game against a typical 5.7 (trending down).
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 37% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
49Mack Hollins▲WR · NEvsLVBENCHProjected 4.2 · #49 among WRs4.2
2–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 4.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- NE favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- LV vs WRs
- 5% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 76%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.2 points, #49 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Upside: Scored 8.7 points last game against a typical 4.2 (trending up).
- Averaging 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
50Keon ColemanWR · BUF@LABENCHProjected 4.2 · #50 among WRs4.2
2–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 4.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 52.5
- LA vs WRs
- 3% more points
- Last game snaps
- 48%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.2 points, #50 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Upside: BUF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
- Played 48% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
How we rank
Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.
We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.
The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.
Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.