Fantasy · Week 3 · 2026
Win your week. Start the right players.
Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank
Our top pick at every position
Josh Allen
BUF vs LAC
16.5scored
MUST STARTScored 40.8 last game, typical 20.3
Running back · #1Jahmyr Gibbs
DET vs NYJ
34.4scored
MUST STARTNYJ allow 21% more points to RBs
Wide receiver · #1Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA @ WAS
25.4scored
MUST STARTScored 33.5 last game, typical 12.7
Tight end · #1Trey McBride
ARI @ SF
7.5scored
MUST STARTProjected 9.4 · #1 among TEs
Kicker · #1Ka'imi Fairbairn
HOU @ IND
5.0scored
MUST STARTProjected 10.6 · #1 among kickers
Defense · #1Seahawks D/ST
SEA @ WAS
1.0scored
MUST STARTWAS expected to score only ~16, a good spot
Your toolkit
Full rankings
Each position has its own page: QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · Flex rankings · K rankings · D/ST rankings
Early season: only 2 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.
1Jaxon Smith-Njigba▲WR · SEA@WASMUST STARTScored 33.5 last game, typical 12.725.4
scored · proj 16.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- SEA favored by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- WAS vs WRs
- 18% more points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.9 points, #1 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 33.5 points last game against a typical 12.7 (trending up).
- WAS's defense has allowed 18% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 11 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
2Amon-Ra St. Brown▲WR · DETvsNYJMUST STARTScored 26.2 last game, typical 10.97.9
scored · proj 14.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 95%
Why we say must start
- Projected 14.9 points, #2 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 26.2 points last game against a typical 10.9 (trending up).
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 13.5 targets a game.
- Played 95% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
3Christian WatsonWR · GBvsATLMUST STARTProjected 13.0 · #3 among WRs15.6
scored · proj 13.0MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs WRs
- 9% more points
- Last game snaps
- 90%
Why we say must start
- Projected 13.0 points, #3 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Averaging 9.5 targets a game.
- Played 90% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.0 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
4Chris Olave▲WR · NOvsLVMUST STARTScored 14.6 last game, typical 9.310.7
scored · proj 11.6MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- NO favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LV vs WRs
- 1% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 84%
Why we say must start
- Projected 11.6 points, #4 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 14.6 points last game against a typical 9.3 (trending up).
- Averaging 11.5 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
5CeeDee Lamb▲WR · DALvsBALMUST STARTScored 27.3 last game, typical 8.413.2
scored · proj 10.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs WRs
- 10% more points
- Last game snaps
- 75%
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.9 points, #5 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 27.3 points last game against a typical 8.4 (trending up).
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 8.5 targets a game.
- Played 75% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
6Davante Adams▲WR · LA@DENMUST STARTScored 31.5 last game, typical 10.213.7
scored · proj 10.6MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs WRs
- 25% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 65%
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.6 points, #6 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 31.5 points last game against a typical 10.2 (trending up).
- Concern: DEN's defense has allowed 25% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 65% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
7Garrett Wilson▲WR · NYJ@DETMUST STARTMore work with Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out16.7
scored · proj 10.5MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NYJ underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- DET vs WRs
- 26% more points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.5 points, #7 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out: more work to go around (about +2.7 points).
- DET's defense has allowed 26% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.5 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
8Puka Nacua▼WR · LA@DENMUST STARTProjected 10.5 · #8 among WRs10.5
4–18 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 13.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs WRs
- 25% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 70%
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.5 points, #8 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Concern: DEN's defense has allowed 25% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
9Nico Collins▲WR · HOU@INDSTARTScored 14.2 last game, typical 9.110.2
4–18 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 9.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- IND vs WRs
- 22% more points
- Last game snaps
- 72%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.2 points, #9 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 14.2 points last game against a typical 9.1 (trending up).
- IND's defense has allowed 22% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 10 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
10Ja'Marr Chase▲WR · CIN@PITSTARTScored 19.5 last game, typical 10.515.8
scored · proj 9.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs WRs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.8 points, #10 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 19.5 points last game against a typical 10.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
11Rashee RiceWR · KC@MIASTARTKC expected to score ~28, a strong spot8.8
scored · proj 8.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs WRs
- 8% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 79%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.8 points, #11 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- KC's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 79% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
12Stefon Diggs▲WR · WASvsSEASTARTScored 16.7 last game, typical 6.63.3
scored · proj 8.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~16 pts
- Vegas line
- WAS underdogs by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- SEA vs WRs
- 28% fewer points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 51%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.6 points, #12 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 16.7 points last game against a typical 6.6 (trending up).
- Jayden Daniels and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +1.9 points).
- Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 28% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.5 targets a game.
Projection 8.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
13Parker WashingtonWR · JAXvsNESTARTProjected 8.3 · #13 among WRs10.0
scored · proj 8.3STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- NE vs WRs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.3 points, #13 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
14George Pickens▼WR · DALvsBALSTARTDAL expected to score ~25, a strong spot8.2
scored · proj 8.2STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs WRs
- 10% more points
- Last game snaps
- 76%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.2 points, #14 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 4 points last game against a typical 10.5 (trending down).
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
15Dontayvion Wicks▲WR · PHI@CHISTARTScored 7.4 last game, typical 3.13.2
scored · proj 8.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 3.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CHI vs WRs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 62%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.1 points, #15 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 7.4 points last game against a typical 3.1 (trending up).
- DeVonta Smith out: more work to go around (about +2 points).
- Averaging 5 targets a game.
- Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
16Tee HigginsWR · CIN@PITSTARTProjected 8.1 · #16 among WRs15.0
scored · proj 8.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs WRs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 72%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.1 points, #16 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
17Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR@CLESTARTProjected 7.5 · #17 among WRs1.7
scored · proj 7.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs WRs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 80%
Why we say start
- Projected 7.5 points, #17 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
18Drake London▼WR · ATL@GBSTARTProjected 7.5 · #18 among WRs19.4
scored · proj 7.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- ATL underdogs by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- GB vs WRs
- 5% more points
- Last game snaps
- 62%
Why we say start
- Projected 7.5 points, #18 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 4.9 points last game against a typical 9.6 (trending down).
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
19Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFvsARISTARTSF expected to score ~28, a strong spot15.4
scored · proj 7.2STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs WRs
- 5% more points
- Last game snaps
- 60%
Why we say start
- Projected 7.2 points, #19 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 60% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
20Jalen CokerQWR · CAR@CLESTARTIf active · Questionable — quadriceps injury1.8
scored · proj 6.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs WRs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 76%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.7 points, #20 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Questionable — quadriceps injury.
- Official practice report: Limited in practice, ankle injury. If active, about 10.3 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.7 · Low confidence · Full player page →
21Jaylen Waddle▲WR · DENvsLASTARTScored 13.8 last game, typical 7.24.4
scored · proj 6.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DEN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LA vs WRs
- 3% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 61%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.7 points, #21 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 13.8 points last game against a typical 7.2 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 61% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
22DJ Moore▼WR · BUFvsLACSTARTBUF expected to score ~29, a strong spot6.7
scored · proj 6.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- LAC vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 31%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.6 points, #22 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored -0.1 points last game against a typical 6.4 (trending down).
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 31% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
23Zay FlowersQ▲WR · BAL@DALSTARTIf active · Questionable — hamstring injury10.4
scored · proj 6.6STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 8.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- DAL vs WRs
- 28% more points
- Last game snaps
- 29%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.6 points, #23 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Questionable — hamstring injury.
- Official practice report: Limited in practice, hamstring injury. If active, about 10.1 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- DAL's defense has allowed 28% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Scored 21 points last game against a typical 8.3 (trending up).
Projection 6.6 · Low confidence · Full player page →
24Devaughn VeleWR · NOvsLVSTARTProjected 6.5 · #24 among WRs3.9
scored · proj 6.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 3.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- NO favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LV vs WRs
- 1% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 96%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.5 points, #24 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 96% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.5 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
25Jameson Williams▼WR · DETvsNYJFLEXDET expected to score ~28, a strong spot4.9
scored · proj 6.4FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 97%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.4 points, #25 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 3.3 points last game against a typical 8.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 97% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
26Tre Tucker▲WR · LV@NOFLEXScored 17.9 last game, typical 5.54.3
scored · proj 6.3FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NO vs WRs
- 5% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 59%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.3 points, #26 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Scored 17.9 points last game against a typical 5.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 59% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
27Quentin Johnston▼WR · LAC@BUFFLEXProjected 6.3 · #27 among WRs4.0
scored · proj 6.3FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- LAC underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- BUF vs WRs
- 3% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.3 points, #27 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Concern: Scored 1.4 points last game against a typical 8 (trending down).
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
28Jauan Jennings▼WR · MIN@TBFLEXProjected 6.2 · #28 among WRs0.1
scored · proj 6.2FLEXRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 7.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TB vs WRs
- 5% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 48%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.2 points, #28 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Concern: Scored 0 points last game against a typical 7 (trending down).
- Averaging 1 targets a game.
- Played 48% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
29Courtland Sutton▼WR · DENvsLAFLEXProjected 5.9 · #29 among WRs4.6
scored · proj 5.9FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DEN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LA vs WRs
- 3% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 73%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.9 points, #29 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Concern: Scored 2.5 points last game against a typical 7.7 (trending down).
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
30Matthew GoldenWR · GBvsATLFLEXProjected 5.7 · #30 among WRs16.0
scored · proj 5.7FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 2.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs WRs
- 9% more points
- Last game snaps
- 86%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.7 points, #30 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
31Emeka EgbukaWR · TBvsMINFLEXProjected 5.6 · #31 among WRs6.2
scored · proj 5.6FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- TB underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- MIN vs WRs
- 14% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 86%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.6 points, #31 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Concern: MIN's defense has allowed 14% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
32Wan'Dale Robinson▼WR · TEN@NYGFLEXNYG allow 15% more points to WRs11.7
scored · proj 5.6FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- TEN underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- NYG vs WRs
- 15% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 53%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.6 points, #32 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- NYG's defense has allowed 15% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 0.9 points last game against a typical 7 (trending down).
- Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 53% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
33Jordan AddisonWR · MIN@TBFLEXMore work with Justin Jefferson out15.0
scored · proj 5.6FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TB vs WRs
- 5% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.6 points, #33 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Justin Jefferson out: more work to go around (about +1.5 points).
- Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
34Malik Nabers▼WR · NYGvsTENFLEXTEN allow 22% more points to WRs2.6
scored · proj 5.5FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- NYG favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- TEN vs WRs
- 22% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 74%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.5 points, #34 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- TEN's defense has allowed 22% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 0.1 points last game against a typical 6.5 (trending down).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 74% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.5 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
35Josh DownsWR · INDvsHOUFLEXMore work with Keenan Allen out7.7
scored · proj 5.5FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- IND underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- HOU vs WRs
- 2% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 83%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.5 points, #35 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +1.4 points).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
36Michael Wilson▼WR · ARI@SFFLEXProjected 5.4 · #36 among WRs14.9
scored · proj 5.4FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI underdogs by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- SF vs WRs
- 2% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 94%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.4 points, #36 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Concern: Scored 1.8 points last game against a typical 7.5 (trending down).
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
37Rome OdunzeWR · CHIvsPHIBENCHPHI allow 15% fewer points to WRs4.4
scored · proj 5.4BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PHI vs WRs
- 15% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 84%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.4 points, #37 among WRs this week, 0.0 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- PHI's defense has allowed 15% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- CHI's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
38Rashod Bateman▲WR · BAL@DALBENCHProjected 5.2 · 0.2 behind #363.7
scored · proj 5.2BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 2.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- DAL vs WRs
- 28% more points
- Last game snaps
- 93%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.2 points, #38 among WRs this week, 0.2 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: Scored 14.8 points last game against a typical 2.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 5 targets a game.
- Played 93% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
39Jakobi MeyersWR · JAXvsNEBENCHProjected 5.1 · 0.3 behind #3612.4
scored · proj 5.1BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- NE vs WRs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 90%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.1 points, #39 among WRs this week, 0.3 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Averaging 1.5 targets a game.
- Played 90% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
40Michael PittmanWR · PITvsCINBENCHCIN allow 18% fewer points to WRs1.6
scored · proj 5.1BENCHRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 6.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- PIT underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CIN vs WRs
- 18% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.1 points, #40 among WRs this week, 0.3 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- CIN's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- PIT's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
41Romeo DoubsWR · NE@JAXBENCHProjected 5.0 · 0.4 behind #364.9
scored · proj 5.0BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- NE underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- JAX vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 67%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.0 points, #41 among WRs this week, 0.4 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
42DK Metcalf▼WR · PITvsCINBENCHScored 2.7 last game, typical 7.59.1
scored · proj 5.0BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- PIT underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CIN vs WRs
- 18% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 97%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.0 points, #42 among WRs this week, 0.4 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 2.7 points last game against a typical 7.5 (trending down).
- CIN's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 9.5 targets a game.
- Played 97% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
43Denzel Boston▲WR · CLEvsCARBENCHCAR allow 16% fewer points to WRs6.1
scored · proj 4.8BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 3.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CLE underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CAR vs WRs
- 16% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 93%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.8 points, #43 among WRs this week, 0.6 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- CAR's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- CLE's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Upside: Scored 15.5 points last game against a typical 3.2 (trending up).
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
Projection 4.8 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
44Malik WashingtonWR · MIAvsKCBENCHKC allow 23% fewer points to WRs6.1
scored · proj 4.8BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 3.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- MIA underdogs by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- KC vs WRs
- 23% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 73%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.8 points, #44 among WRs this week, 0.6 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- KC's defense has allowed 23% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- MIA's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Upside: De'Von Achane and Caleb Douglas out: more work to go around (about +2 points).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
Projection 4.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
45Khalil ShakirWR · BUFvsLACBENCHProjected 4.8 · #45 among WRs0.6
scored · proj 4.8BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- LAC vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 49%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.8 points, #45 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Upside: BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 49% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
46Marvin Harrison Jr.▼WR · ARI@SFBENCHScored 0 last game, typical 6.24.0
scored · proj 4.8BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI underdogs by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- SF vs WRs
- 2% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 74%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.8 points, #46 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Scored 0 points last game against a typical 6.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 2 targets a game.
- Played 74% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
47Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAXvsNEBENCHProjected 4.7 · #47 among WRs0.8
scored · proj 4.7BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- NE vs WRs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 54%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.7 points, #47 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 54% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
48Kayshon BoutteWR · HOU@INDBENCHProjected 4.6 · #48 among WRs2.1
scored · proj 4.6BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- IND vs WRs
- 22% more points
- Last game snaps
- 72%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.6 points, #48 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Upside: IND's defense has allowed 22% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
49Xavier Worthy▲WR · KC@MIABENCHProjected 4.3 · #49 among WRs2.0
scored · proj 4.3BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs WRs
- 8% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 86%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.3 points, #49 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Upside: Scored 8.5 points last game against a typical 4.2 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
50Rashid ShaheedWR · SEA@WASBENCHProjected 4.3 · #50 among WRs1.4
scored · proj 4.3BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- SEA favored by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- WAS vs WRs
- 18% more points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 56%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.3 points, #50 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Upside: WAS's defense has allowed 18% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 56% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
How we rank
Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.
We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.
The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.
Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.