Fantasy · Week 3 · 2026
Win your week. Start the right players.
Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank
Our top pick at every position
Josh Allen
BUF vs LAC
17.5scored
MUST STARTScored 40.8 last game, typical 20.3
Running back · #1Jahmyr Gibbs
DET vs NYJ
41.4scored
MUST STARTDET expected to score ~28, a strong spot
Wide receiver · #1Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA @ WAS
35.4scored
MUST STARTScored 42.5 last game, typical 18.9
Tight end · #1Trey McBride
ARI @ SF
16.5scored
MUST STARTProjected 15.9 · #1 among TEs
Kicker · #1Ka'imi Fairbairn
HOU @ IND
5.0scored
MUST STARTProjected 10.6 · #1 among kickers
Defense · #1Seahawks D/ST
SEA @ WAS
1.0scored
MUST STARTWAS expected to score only ~16, a good spot
Your toolkit
Full rankings
Each position has its own page: QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · Flex rankings · K rankings · D/ST rankings
Early season: only 2 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.
1Jaxon Smith-Njigba▲WR · SEA@WASMUST STARTScored 42.5 last game, typical 18.935.4
scored · proj 25.3MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 18.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- SEA favored by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- WAS vs WRs
- 16% more points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 25.3 points, #1 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 42.5 points last game against a typical 18.9 (trending up).
- WAS's defense has allowed 16% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 11 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 25.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
2Amon-Ra St. Brown▲WR · DETvsNYJMUST STARTScored 35.2 last game, typical 17.111.9
scored · proj 22.1MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 17.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 95%
Why we say must start
- Projected 22.1 points, #2 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 35.2 points last game against a typical 17.1 (trending up).
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 13.5 targets a game.
- Played 95% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 22.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
3Chris Olave▲WR · NOvsLVMUST STARTScored 22.6 last game, typical 14.919.7
scored · proj 18.3MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 14.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- NO favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LV vs WRs
- League average
- Last game snaps
- 84%
Why we say must start
- Projected 18.3 points, #3 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 22.6 points last game against a typical 14.9 (trending up).
- Travis Etienne out: more work to go around (about +1.1 points).
- Averaging 11.5 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 18.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
4CeeDee Lamb▲WR · DALvsBALMUST STARTScored 35.3 last game, typical 13.420.2
scored · proj 17.3MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 13.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs WRs
- 13% more points
- Last game snaps
- 75%
Why we say must start
- Projected 17.3 points, #4 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 35.3 points last game against a typical 13.4 (trending up).
- BAL's defense has allowed 13% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 8.5 targets a game.
- Played 75% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 17.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
5Christian WatsonWR · GBvsATLMUST STARTProjected 16.9 · #5 among WRs22.6
scored · proj 16.9MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs WRs
- 7% more points
- Last game snaps
- 90%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.9 points, #5 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Averaging 9.5 targets a game.
- Played 90% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.9 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
6Puka Nacua▼WR · LA@DENMUST STARTMore work with Terrance Ferguson out16.8
7–29 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 20.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs WRs
- 16% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 70%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.8 points, #6 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Terrance Ferguson out: more work to go around (about +1.2 points).
- Concern: DEN's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
7Garrett Wilson▲WR · NYJ@DETMUST STARTMore work with Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out26.7
scored · proj 16.1MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NYJ underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- DET vs WRs
- 20% more points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.1 points, #7 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out: more work to go around (about +4.1 points).
- Scored 16.7 points last game against a typical 11.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.1 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
8Ja'Marr Chase▲WR · CIN@PITMUST STARTScored 26.5 last game, typical 17.424.8
scored · proj 15.8MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 17.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs WRs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say must start
- Projected 15.8 points, #8 among WRs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 26.5 points last game against a typical 17.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 15.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
9Davante Adams▲WR · LA@DENSTARTScored 39.5 last game, typical 13.920.7
scored · proj 15.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 13.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs WRs
- 16% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 65%
Why we say start
- Projected 15.1 points, #9 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 39.5 points last game against a typical 13.9 (trending up).
- Terrance Ferguson out: more work to go around (about +1.5 points).
- Concern: DEN's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
Projection 15.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
10Nico Collins▲WR · HOU@INDSTARTScored 21.2 last game, typical 13.314.9
6–26 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 13.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- IND vs WRs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 72%
Why we say start
- Projected 14.9 points, #10 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 21.2 points last game against a typical 13.3 (trending up).
- IND's defense has allowed 21% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 10 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
11Rashee RiceWR · KC@MIASTARTKC expected to score ~28, a strong spot15.8
scored · proj 13.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 15.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs WRs
- 7% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 79%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.4 points, #11 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- KC's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 79% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.4 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
12George PickensWR · DALvsBALSTARTBAL allow 13% more points to WRs15.2
scored · proj 13.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 15.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs WRs
- 13% more points
- Last game snaps
- 76%
Why we say start
- Projected 13.1 points, #12 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- BAL's defense has allowed 13% more points to WRs than the league average.
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 13.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
13Stefon Diggs▲WR · WASvsSEASTARTScored 21.7 last game, typical 11.17.3
scored · proj 12.9STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~16 pts
- Vegas line
- WAS underdogs by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- SEA vs WRs
- 23% fewer points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 51%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.9 points, #13 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 21.7 points last game against a typical 11.1 (trending up).
- Jayden Daniels and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +2.8 points).
- Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 23% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.5 targets a game.
Projection 12.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
14Parker Washington▲WR · JAXvsNESTARTScored 16.8 last game, typical 10.313.0
scored · proj 12.3STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- NE vs WRs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say start
- Projected 12.3 points, #14 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 16.8 points last game against a typical 10.3 (trending up).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
15Tee HigginsWR · CIN@PITSTARTProjected 11.6 · #15 among WRs21.0
scored · proj 11.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs WRs
- 1% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 72%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.6 points, #15 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
16Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFvsARISTARTSF expected to score ~28, a strong spot15.4
scored · proj 11.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs WRs
- 5% more points
- Last game snaps
- 60%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.5 points, #16 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 60% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
17Dontayvion Wicks▲WR · PHI@CHISTARTScored 12.4 last game, typical 5.15.2
scored · proj 11.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CHI vs WRs
- 12% more points
- Last game snaps
- 62%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.5 points, #17 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 12.4 points last game against a typical 5.1 (trending up).
- DeVonta Smith out: more work to go around (about +3.1 points).
- Averaging 5 targets a game.
- Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
18Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR@CLESTARTMore work with Jonathon Brooks out3.7
scored · proj 11.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs WRs
- 5% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 80%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.4 points, #18 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Jonathon Brooks out: more work to go around (about +1 points).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
19Drake London▼WR · ATL@GBSTARTProjected 11.4 · #19 among WRs28.4
scored · proj 11.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 14.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- ATL underdogs by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- GB vs WRs
- 4% more points
- Last game snaps
- 62%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.4 points, #19 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 8.9 points last game against a typical 14.4 (trending down).
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
20Devaughn Vele▲WR · NOvsLVSTARTScored 11.4 last game, typical 66.9
scored · proj 10.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- NO favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LV vs WRs
- League average
- Last game snaps
- 96%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.5 points, #20 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 11.4 points last game against a typical 6 (trending up).
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 96% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.5 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
21Jaylen Waddle▲WR · DENvsLASTARTScored 21.8 last game, typical 10.86.4
scored · proj 10.3STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DEN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LA vs WRs
- 2% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 61%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.3 points, #21 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Scored 21.8 points last game against a typical 10.8 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 61% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
22Zay FlowersQ▲WR · BAL@DALSTARTIf active · Questionable — hamstring injury15.4
scored · proj 10.1STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 12.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- DAL vs WRs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 29%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.1 points, #22 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Questionable — hamstring injury.
- Official practice report: Limited in practice, hamstring injury. If active, about 15.5 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- Scored 26 points last game against a typical 12.8 (trending up).
- DAL's defense has allowed 21% more points to WRs than the league average.
Projection 10.1 · Low confidence · Full player page →
23Jalen CokerQ▲WR · CAR@CLESTARTIf active · Questionable — quadriceps injury3.8
scored · proj 9.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs WRs
- 5% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 76%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.8 points, #23 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Questionable — quadriceps injury.
- Official practice report: Limited in practice, ankle injury. If active, about 15.1 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- Scored 14.6 points last game against a typical 7 (trending up).
- Jonathon Brooks out: more work to go around (about +1 points).
Projection 9.8 · Low confidence · Full player page →
24Wan'Dale Robinson▼WR · TEN@NYGSTARTProjected 9.6 · #24 among WRs18.7
scored · proj 9.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 12.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- TEN underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- NYG vs WRs
- 11% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 53%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.6 points, #24 among WRs this week, inside the top 24 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 1.9 points last game against a typical 12.1 (trending down).
- Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 53% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
25Jameson Williams▼WR · DETvsNYJFLEXDET expected to score ~28, a strong spot8.9
scored · proj 9.6FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 97%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.6 points, #25 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 5.3 points last game against a typical 11.6 (trending down).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 97% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
26Matthew Golden▲WR · GBvsATLFLEXScored 9.8 last game, typical 4.421.0
scored · proj 9.4FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs WRs
- 7% more points
- Last game snaps
- 86%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.4 points, #26 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Scored 9.8 points last game against a typical 4.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
27Josh Downs▲WR · INDvsHOUFLEXMore work with Keenan Allen out12.7
scored · proj 9.3FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- IND underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- HOU vs WRs
- 5% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 83%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.3 points, #27 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +2.1 points).
- Scored 14.2 points last game against a typical 7.7 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
28DJ Moore▼WR · BUFvsLACFLEXBUF expected to score ~29, a strong spot12.7
scored · proj 9.2FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- LAC vs WRs
- 3% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 31%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.2 points, #28 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored -0.1 points last game against a typical 9.1 (trending down).
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 31% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
29Quentin Johnston▼WR · LAC@BUFFLEXMore work with David Njoku out7.0
scored · proj 9.2FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- LAC underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- BUF vs WRs
- 4% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 81%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.2 points, #29 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- David Njoku out: more work to go around (about +1.4 points).
- Concern: Scored 2.4 points last game against a typical 11.4 (trending down).
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 81% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
30Jauan Jennings▼WR · MIN@TBFLEXProjected 9.2 · #30 among WRs1.1
scored · proj 9.2FLEXRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TB vs WRs
- 2% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 48%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.2 points, #30 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Concern: Scored 0 points last game against a typical 10.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 1 targets a game.
- Played 48% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
31Courtland Sutton▼WR · DENvsLAFLEXProjected 9.1 · #31 among WRs7.6
scored · proj 9.1FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DEN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LA vs WRs
- 2% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 73%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.1 points, #31 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Concern: Scored 5.5 points last game against a typical 11.6 (trending down).
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
32Tre Tucker▲WR · LV@NOFLEXScored 22.9 last game, typical 8.58.3
scored · proj 9.1FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NO vs WRs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 59%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.1 points, #32 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Scored 22.9 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 59% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
33Michael Wilson▼WR · ARI@SFFLEXProjected 8.8 · #33 among WRs25.9
scored · proj 8.8FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI underdogs by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- SF vs WRs
- 1% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 94%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.8 points, #33 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Concern: Scored 3.8 points last game against a typical 11.6 (trending down).
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
34Jakobi Meyers▼WR · JAXvsNEFLEXProjected 8.7 · #34 among WRs19.4
scored · proj 8.7FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- NE vs WRs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 90%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.7 points, #34 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Concern: Scored 3.8 points last game against a typical 9.8 (trending down).
- Averaging 1.5 targets a game.
- Played 90% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
35Khalil ShakirWR · BUFvsLACFLEXBUF expected to score ~29, a strong spot1.6
scored · proj 8.5FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- LAC vs WRs
- 3% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 49%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.5 points, #35 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 49% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
36Emeka EgbukaWR · TBvsMINFLEXProjected 8.5 · #36 among WRs11.2
scored · proj 8.5FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- TB underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- MIN vs WRs
- 13% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 86%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.5 points, #36 among WRs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #24).
- Concern: MIN's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
37Malik Nabers▼WR · NYGvsTENBENCHScored 1.1 last game, typical 9.57.6
scored · proj 8.4BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- NYG favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- TEN vs WRs
- 19% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 74%
Why we say bench
- Projected 8.4 points, #37 among WRs this week, 0.1 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 1.1 points last game against a typical 9.5 (trending down).
- Upside: TEN's defense has allowed 19% more points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 74% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.4 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
38Michael PittmanWR · PITvsCINBENCHCIN allow 18% fewer points to WRs3.6
scored · proj 8.4BENCHRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 10.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- PIT underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CIN vs WRs
- 18% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say bench
- Projected 8.4 points, #38 among WRs this week, 0.1 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- CIN's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- PIT's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
39Jordan Addison▼WR · MIN@TBBENCHScored 4.1 last game, typical 8.420.0
scored · proj 8.4BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TB vs WRs
- 2% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say bench
- Projected 8.4 points, #39 among WRs this week, 0.1 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 4.1 points last game against a typical 8.4 (trending down).
- Upside: Justin Jefferson out: more work to go around (about +2.3 points).
- Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
40Malik WashingtonWR · MIAvsKCBENCHKC allow 16% fewer points to WRs11.1
scored · proj 8.2BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- MIA underdogs by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- KC vs WRs
- 16% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 73%
Why we say bench
- Projected 8.2 points, #40 among WRs this week, 0.3 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- KC's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- MIA's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Upside: De'Von Achane and Caleb Douglas out: more work to go around (about +3 points).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
Projection 8.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
41DK Metcalf▼WR · PITvsCINBENCHScored 6.7 last game, typical 1112.1
scored · proj 8.1BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 11.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- PIT underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CIN vs WRs
- 18% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 97%
Why we say bench
- Projected 8.1 points, #41 among WRs this week, 0.4 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 6.7 points last game against a typical 11 (trending down).
- CIN's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- Averaging 9.5 targets a game.
- Played 97% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
42Rome OdunzeWR · CHIvsPHIBENCHCHI expected to score only ~20, a tough spot7.4
scored · proj 7.9BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PHI vs WRs
- 12% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 84%
Why we say bench
- Projected 7.9 points, #42 among WRs this week, 0.6 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- CHI's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
43Rashod Bateman▲WR · BAL@DALBENCHProjected 7.6 · 0.9 behind #365.7
scored · proj 7.6BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 3.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- DAL vs WRs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 93%
Why we say bench
- Projected 7.6 points, #43 among WRs this week, 0.9 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: Scored 21.8 points last game against a typical 3.7 (trending up).
- Averaging 5 targets a game.
- Played 93% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
44Romeo DoubsWR · NE@JAXBENCHProjected 7.5 · 1.0 behind #367.9
scored · proj 7.5BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- NE underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- JAX vs WRs
- League average
- Last game snaps
- 67%
Why we say bench
- Projected 7.5 points, #44 among WRs this week, 1.0 points behind #36, the last one we'd start.
- Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
45Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAXvsNEBENCHProjected 7.4 · #45 among WRs1.8
scored · proj 7.4BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- NE vs WRs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 54%
Why we say bench
- Projected 7.4 points, #45 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 54% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
46Denzel Boston▲WR · CLEvsCARBENCHCAR allow 12% fewer points to WRs8.1
scored · proj 7.4BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CLE underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CAR vs WRs
- 12% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 93%
Why we say bench
- Projected 7.4 points, #46 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- CAR's defense has allowed 12% fewer points to WRs than the league average.
- CLE's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Upside: Scored 20.5 points last game against a typical 5.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
Projection 7.4 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
47Xavier Worthy▲WR · KC@MIABENCHProjected 7.3 · #47 among WRs4.0
scored · proj 7.3BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs WRs
- 7% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 86%
Why we say bench
- Projected 7.3 points, #47 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Upside: Scored 13.5 points last game against a typical 6.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
48Marvin Harrison Jr.▼WR · ARI@SFBENCHScored 0 last game, typical 9.17.0
scored · proj 7.1BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 9.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI underdogs by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- SF vs WRs
- 1% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 74%
Why we say bench
- Projected 7.1 points, #48 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Scored 0 points last game against a typical 9.1 (trending down).
- Averaging 2 targets a game.
- Played 74% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
49Kalif Raymond▲WR · CHIvsPHIBENCHCHI expected to score only ~20, a tough spot21.0
scored · proj 7.1BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 3.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PHI vs WRs
- 12% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 62%
Why we say bench
- Projected 7.1 points, #49 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- CHI's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Upside: Scored 9 points last game against a typical 3.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
50Keon Coleman▲WR · BUFvsLACBENCHProjected 7.0 · #50 among WRs4.7
scored · proj 7.0BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- LAC vs WRs
- 3% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 74%
Why we say bench
- Projected 7.0 points, #50 among WRs this week, outside the top 36.
- Upside: BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 74% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
How we rank
Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.
We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.
The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.
Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.