Fantasy Football Rankings & Start/Sit

Early season: only 3 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.

1Jahmyr Gibbs▲RB · DET@CARMUST STARTScored 37.9 last game, typical 17.327.7
13–45 rangeMUST START
Recent form
31
20
38
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 17.3 a game
This week's matchup
@CARGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
DET favored by 3.5
Game total
50.5
CAR vs RBs
21% more points
Last game snaps
69%
Why we say must start
- Projected 27.7 points, #1 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 37.9 points last game against a typical 17.3 (trending up).
- CAR's defense has allowed 21% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 21.7 carries and 7 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 27.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
2Bijan Robinson▲RB · ATL@NOMUST STARTScored 34.3 last game, typical 17.420.4
10–33 rangeMUST START
Recent form
27
10
34
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 17.4 a game
This week's matchup
@NOGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs RBs
6% more points
Last game snaps
72%
Why we say must start
- Projected 20.4 points, #2 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 34.3 points last game against a typical 17.4 (trending up).
- Averaging 22 carries and 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 20.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
3Jonathan Taylor▼RB · IND@WASMUST STARTIND expected to score ~26, a strong spot19.9
10–32 rangeMUST START
Recent form
24
27
8
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 17.9 a game
This week's matchup
@WASGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
IND favored by 4.5
Game total
46.5
WAS vs RBs
3% more points
Last game snaps
85%
Why we say must start
- Projected 19.9 points, #3 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- IND's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 8.2 points last game against a typical 17.9 (trending down).
- Averaging 22 carries and 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 19.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
4Derrick Henry▲RB · BALvsTENMUST STARTScored 21.4 last game, typical 14.319.4
9–32 rangeMUST START
Recent form
35
16
21
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 14.3 a game
This week's matchup
vsTENGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
BAL favored by 11.5
Game total
42.5
TEN vs RBs
1% more points
Last game snaps
67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 19.4 points, #4 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 21.4 points last game against a typical 14.3 (trending up).
- BAL's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 22 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 19.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
5Christian McCaffreyRB · SFvsDENMUST STARTSF expected to score ~25, a strong spot19.1
9–31 rangeMUST START
Recent form
11
21
20
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 19.2 a game
This week's matchup
vsDENGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SF favored by 3
Game total
47.5
DEN vs RBs
6% fewer points
Last game snaps
83%
Why we say must start
- Projected 19.1 points, #5 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 11.7 carries and 5.7 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 19.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
6Kenneth Walker III▲RB · KC@LVMUST STARTScored 20.3 last game, typical 9.318.0
9–29 rangeMUST START
Recent form
33
21
20
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.3 a game
This week's matchup
@LVGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
KC favored by 4.5
Game total
47.5
LV vs RBs
1% fewer points
Last game snaps
73%
Why we say must start
- Projected 18.0 points, #6 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- Scored 20.3 points last game against a typical 9.3 (trending up).
- KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 21.7 carries and 6 targets a game.
- Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 18.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
7James CookRB · BUFvsNEMUST STARTBUF expected to score ~28, a strong spot16.5
8–27 rangeMUST START
Recent form
8
20
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 15.0 a game
This week's matchup
vsNEGame page →
Expected team score
~28 pts
Vegas line
BUF favored by 7
Game total
49.5
NE vs RBs
13% fewer points
Last game snaps
67%
Why we say must start
- Projected 16.5 points, #7 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: NE's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 19.3 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 16.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
8D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIvsNYJMUST STARTNYJ allow 27% more points to RBs15.0
7–24 rangeMUST START
Recent form
32
10
10
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsNYJGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CHI favored by 3.5
Game total
43.5
NYJ vs RBs
27% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
69%
Why we say must start
- Projected 15.0 points, #8 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
- NYJ's defense has allowed 27% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 18 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 15.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
9Kyren Williams▲RB · LA@PHISTARTScored 18.8 last game, typical 12.914.7
7–24 rangeSTART
Recent form
14
15
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.9 a game
This week's matchup
@PHIGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
LA favored by 3.5
Game total
42.5
PHI vs RBs
League average
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
71%
Why we say start
- Projected 14.7 points, #9 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 18.8 points last game against a typical 12.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 12.7 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 71% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 14.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
10Javonte Williams▲RB · DAL@HOUSTARTScored 17.3 last game, typical 12.511.7
6–19 rangeSTART
Recent form
22
7
17
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 12.5 a game
This week's matchup
@HOUGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
DAL underdogs by 3
Game total
48.5
HOU vs RBs
19% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
76%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.7 points, #10 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 17.3 points last game against a typical 12.5 (trending up).
- Concern: HOU's defense has allowed 19% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 14.3 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
11Bhayshul Tuten▲RB · JAX@CINSTARTScored 16 last game, typical 4.911.6
6–19 rangeSTART
Recent form
9
13
16
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 4.9 a game
This week's matchup
@CINGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
JAX underdogs by 2.5
Game total
51.5
CIN vs RBs
19% more points
Last game snaps
48%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.6 points, #11 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 16 points last game against a typical 4.9 (trending up).
- CIN's defense has allowed 19% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 14.3 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 48% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
12Ashton JeantyRB · LVvsKCSTARTProjected 11.5 · #12 among RBs11.5
6–19 rangeSTART
Recent form
30
8
11
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsKCGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
LV underdogs by 4.5
Game total
47.5
KC vs RBs
12% fewer points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.5 points, #12 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 21 carries and 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
13Cam SkatteboRB · NYGvsARISTARTProjected 11.4 · #13 among RBs11.4
6–19 rangeSTART
Recent form
14
8
12
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.6 a game
This week's matchup
vsARIGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NYG underdogs by 2.5
Game total
44.5
ARI vs RBs
11% more points
Last game snaps
77%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.4 points, #13 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 16.7 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
- Played 77% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
14Jaylen Warren▲RB · PIT@CLESTARTScored 19.1 last game, typical 1114.1
scored · proj 11.3START
Recent form
8
9
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.0 a game
This week's matchup
@CLEGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
PIT favored by 2.5
Game total
38.5
CLE vs RBs
5% fewer points
Wind
11 mph
Last game snaps
90%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.3 points, #14 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 19.1 points last game against a typical 11 (trending up).
- Averaging 12.7 carries and 4.7 targets a game.
- Played 90% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
15Chase Brown▼RB · CINvsJAXSTARTCIN expected to score ~27, a strong spot11.2
5–18 rangeSTART
Recent form
16
10
8
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 13.1 a game
This week's matchup
vsJAXGame page →
Expected team score
~27 pts
Vegas line
CIN favored by 2.5
Game total
51.5
JAX vs RBs
20% fewer points
Last game snaps
70%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.2 points, #15 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- CIN's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: JAX's defense has allowed 20% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 16.3 carries and 4.3 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
16Aaron Jones▲RB · MINvsMIASTARTScored 11.7 last game, typical 7.511.0
5–18 rangeSTART
Recent form
10
11
12
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsMIAGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
MIN favored by 10
Game total
38.5
MIA vs RBs
22% more points
Last game snaps
80%
Why we say start
- Projected 11.0 points, #16 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 11.7 points last game against a typical 7.5 (trending up).
- MIA's defense has allowed 22% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 17.3 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
17Bucky IrvingRB · TBvsGBSTARTGB allow 12% more points to RBs10.9
5–18 rangeSTART
Recent form
17
11
7
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.3 a game
This week's matchup
vsGBGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
TB underdogs by 3
Game total
38.5
GB vs RBs
12% more points
Last game snaps
52%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.9 points, #17 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- GB's defense has allowed 12% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: TB's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 13.3 carries and 5 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
18Chuba Hubbard▲RB · CARvsDETSTARTScored 13 last game, typical 6.510.3
5–17 rangeSTART
Recent form
22
13
13
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsDETGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CAR underdogs by 3.5
Game total
50.5
DET vs RBs
10% fewer points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say start
- Projected 10.3 points, #18 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Scored 13 points last game against a typical 6.5 (trending up).
- Averaging 13.7 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 10.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
19David MontgomeryRB · HOUvsDALSTARTDAL allow 16% more points to RBs9.8
5–16 rangeSTART
Recent form
27
3
6
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.2 a game
This week's matchup
vsDALGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs RBs
16% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
63%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.8 points, #19 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- DAL's defense has allowed 16% more points to RBs than the league average.
- HOU's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 12.3 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 63% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
20Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIvsLASTARTProjected 9.3 · #20 among RBs9.3
5–15 rangeSTART
Recent form
9
3
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 11.9 a game
This week's matchup
vsLAGame page →
Expected team score
~20 pts
Vegas line
PHI underdogs by 3.5
Game total
42.5
LA vs RBs
13% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
72%
Why we say start
- Projected 9.3 points, #20 among RBs this week, inside the top 20 we recommend starting.
- Concern: LA's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 11.3 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 72% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
21Jeremiyah Love▲RB · ARI@NYGFLEXScored 19.4 last game, typical 5.19.1
4–15 rangeFLEX
Recent form
12
6
19
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
@NYGGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
ARI favored by 2.5
Game total
44.5
NYG vs RBs
15% more points
Last game snaps
64%
Why we say flex
- Projected 9.1 points, #21 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Scored 19.4 points last game against a typical 5.1 (trending up).
- NYG's defense has allowed 15% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 13.7 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 64% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
22Omarion Hampton▼RB · LAC@SEAFLEXProjected 8.8 · #22 among RBs8.8
4–14 rangeFLEX
Recent form
8
17
6
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.9 a game
This week's matchup
@SEAGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
LAC underdogs by 7
Game total
42.5
SEA vs RBs
22% fewer points
Last game snaps
42%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.8 points, #22 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: SEA's defense has allowed 22% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 16.7 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 42% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
23Rhamondre Stevenson▼RB · NE@BUFFLEXBUF allow 17% more points to RBs8.4
4–14 rangeFLEX
Recent form
12
3
5
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game
This week's matchup
@BUFGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NE underdogs by 7
Game total
49.5
BUF vs RBs
17% more points
Last game snaps
52%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.4 points, #23 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- BUF's defense has allowed 17% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 5.3 points last game against a typical 10.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 10.3 carries and 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
24TreVeyon Henderson▼RB · NE@BUFFLEXBUF allow 17% more points to RBs8.1
4–13 rangeFLEX
Recent form
14
3
W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.9 a game
This week's matchup
@BUFGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NE underdogs by 7
Game total
49.5
BUF vs RBs
17% more points
Last game snaps
37%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.1 points, #24 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- BUF's defense has allowed 17% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 3.4 points last game against a typical 9.9 (trending down).
- Averaging 12 carries and 0.5 targets a game.
- Played 37% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
25Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLEvsPITFLEXProjected 8.1 · #25 among RBs18.6
scored · proj 8.1FLEX
Recent form
6
7
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsPITGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
CLE underdogs by 2.5
Game total
38.5
PIT vs RBs
9% fewer points
Wind
11 mph
Last game snaps
51%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.1 points, #25 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: CLE's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 14 carries and 3 targets a game.
- Played 51% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
26Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WASvsINDFLEXMore work with Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out8.0
4–13 rangeFLEX
Recent form
12
5
5
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.1 a game
This week's matchup
vsINDGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
WAS underdogs by 4.5
Game total
46.5
IND vs RBs
3% more points
Last game snaps
57%
Why we say flex
- Projected 8.0 points, #26 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White out: more work to go around (about +1.4 points).
- Averaging 15.7 carries and 1 targets a game.
- Played 57% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
27Tony PollardRB · TEN@BALFLEXProjected 7.8 · #27 among RBs7.8
4–13 rangeFLEX
Recent form
4
7
12
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.9 a game
This week's matchup
@BALGame page →
Expected team score
~16 pts
Vegas line
TEN underdogs by 11.5
Game total
42.5
BAL vs RBs
2% more points
Last game snaps
53%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.8 points, #27 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Concern: TEN's offense is expected to score only about 16 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 12.7 carries and 2.3 targets a game.
- Played 53% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
28J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN@SFFLEXProjected 7.6 · #28 among RBs7.6
4–12 rangeFLEX
Recent form
4
4
6
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.2 a game
This week's matchup
@SFGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
DEN underdogs by 3
Game total
47.5
SF vs RBs
5% more points
Last game snaps
49%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.6 points, #28 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Averaging 11.7 carries and 0.7 targets a game.
- Played 49% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
29RJ HarveyRB · DEN@SFFLEXProjected 7.4 · #29 among RBs7.4
4–12 rangeFLEX
Recent form
6
8
W1W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.6 a game
This week's matchup
@SFGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
DEN underdogs by 3
Game total
47.5
SF vs RBs
5% more points
Last game snaps
36%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.4 points, #29 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- Averaging 2.5 carries and 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 36% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 7.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
30Kyle Monangai▼RB · CHIvsNYJFLEXNYJ allow 27% more points to RBs7.1
3–12 rangeFLEX
Recent form
19
7
3
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.2 a game
This week's matchup
vsNYJGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CHI favored by 3.5
Game total
43.5
NYJ vs RBs
27% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
31%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.1 points, #30 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- NYJ's defense has allowed 27% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 3.1 points last game against a typical 7.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 10 carries and 1.3 targets a game.
- Played 31% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
31Alvin KamaraRB · NOvsATLFLEXNO expected to score ~25, a strong spot6.7
3–11 rangeFLEX
Recent form
5
5
W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
vsATLGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
NO favored by 2.5
Game total
47.5
ATL vs RBs
12% fewer points
Last game snaps
32%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.7 points, #31 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- NO's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: ATL's defense has allowed 12% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 9 carries and 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 32% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.7 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
32Woody MarksRB · HOUvsDALFLEXDAL allow 16% more points to RBs6.6
3–11 rangeFLEX
Recent form
5
6
9
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 7.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsDALGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
HOU favored by 3
Game total
48.5
DAL vs RBs
16% more points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
37%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.6 points, #32 among RBs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #20).
- DAL's defense has allowed 16% more points to RBs than the league average.
- HOU's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 7.3 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
- Played 37% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
33Kenny Gainwell▼RB · TBvsGBBENCHScored 2 last game, typical 9.76.3
3–10 rangeBENCH
Recent form
2
3
2
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 9.7 a game
This week's matchup
vsGBGame page →
Expected team score
~18 pts
Vegas line
TB underdogs by 3
Game total
38.5
GB vs RBs
12% more points
Last game snaps
46%
Why we say bench
- Projected 6.3 points, #33 among RBs this week, 0.3 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 2 points last game against a typical 9.7 (trending down).
- TB's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Upside: GB's defense has allowed 12% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 3.3 carries and 3.3 targets a game.
Projection 6.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
34Braelon AllenRB · NYJ@CHIBENCHProjected 5.7 · 0.9 behind #325.7
3–9 rangeBENCH
Recent form
4
8
3
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 2.4 a game
This week's matchup
@CHIGame page →
Expected team score
~20 pts
Vegas line
NYJ underdogs by 3.5
Game total
43.5
CHI vs RBs
3% fewer points
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
52%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.7 points, #34 among RBs this week, 0.9 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: Breece Hall out: more work to go around (about +1.9 points).
- Averaging 6.3 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
35Emanuel WilsonRB · SEAvsLACBENCHProjected 5.6 · 1.0 behind #325.6
3–9 rangeBENCH
Recent form
0
9
1
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 4.6 a game
This week's matchup
vsLACGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
SEA favored by 7
Game total
42.5
LAC vs RBs
11% fewer points
Last game snaps
36%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.6 points, #35 among RBs this week, 1.0 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: Jadarian Price out: more work to go around (about +1.2 points).
- Averaging 10.7 carries and 0.3 targets a game.
- Played 36% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
36Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · JAX@CINBENCHProjected 5.4 · 1.2 behind #325.4
3–9 rangeBENCH
Recent form
2
1
10
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
@CINGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
JAX underdogs by 2.5
Game total
51.5
CIN vs RBs
19% more points
Last game snaps
21%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.4 points, #36 among RBs this week, 1.2 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: CIN's defense has allowed 19% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 6.7 carries and 0 targets a game.
- Played 21% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 5.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
37Blake CorumRB · LA@PHIBENCHProjected 5.2 · 1.4 behind #325.2
3–8 rangeBENCH
Recent form
5
10
3
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.2 a game
This week's matchup
@PHIGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
LA favored by 3.5
Game total
42.5
PHI vs RBs
League average
Wind
10 mph
Last game snaps
29%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.2 points, #37 among RBs this week, 1.4 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Averaging 9.3 carries and 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 29% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 5.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
38Brian Robinson▲RB · ATL@NOBENCHProjected 4.9 · 1.7 behind #324.9
2–8 rangeBENCH
Recent form
3
8
11
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 3.1 a game
This week's matchup
@NOGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs RBs
6% more points
Last game snaps
27%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.9 points, #38 among RBs this week, 1.7 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: Scored 11 points last game against a typical 3.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 10 carries and 0.7 targets a game.
- Played 27% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 4.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
39Tyler AllgeierRB · ARI@NYGBENCHProjected 4.6 · 2.0 behind #324.6
2–8 rangeBENCH
Recent form
8
3
3
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 6.1 a game
This week's matchup
@NYGGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
ARI favored by 2.5
Game total
44.5
NYG vs RBs
15% more points
Last game snaps
36%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.6 points, #39 among RBs this week, 2.0 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: NYG's defense has allowed 15% more points to RBs than the league average.
- Averaging 8 carries and 2.7 targets a game.
- Played 36% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 4.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
40Ollie Gordon II▲RB · MIA@MINBENCHMIA expected to score only ~14, a tough spot4.5
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
1
13
W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 2.7 a game
This week's matchup
@MINGame page →
Expected team score
~14 pts
Vegas line
MIA underdogs by 10
Game total
38.5
MIN vs RBs
18% fewer points
Last game snaps
84%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.5 points, #40 among RBs this week, 2.1 points behind #32, the last one we'd start.
- MIA's offense is expected to score only about 14 points, a tough scoring spot.
- MIN's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Upside: Scored 13 points last game against a typical 2.7 (trending up).
- Averaging 10 carries and 1.5 targets a game.
Projection 4.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
41Ty JohnsonRB · BUFvsNEBENCHNE allow 13% fewer points to RBs4.2
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
7
W3
Dashed line: the usual 4.6 a game
This week's matchup
vsNEGame page →
Expected team score
~28 pts
Vegas line
BUF favored by 7
Game total
49.5
NE vs RBs
13% fewer points
Last game snaps
23%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.2 points, #41 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- NE's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Upside: BUF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 0 carries and 4 targets a game.
- Played 23% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
42Kendre MillerRB · NOvsATLBENCHATL allow 12% fewer points to RBs4.1
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
9
3
W1W3
Dashed line: the usual 3.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsATLGame page →
Expected team score
~25 pts
Vegas line
NO favored by 2.5
Game total
47.5
ATL vs RBs
12% fewer points
Last game snaps
19%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.1 points, #42 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- ATL's defense has allowed 12% fewer points to RBs than the league average.
- Upside: NO's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6.5 carries and 1.5 targets a game.
- Played 19% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.1 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
43Mike Washington Jr.▲RB · LVvsKCBENCHProjected 4.0 · #43 among RBs4.0
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
4
1
11
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
vsKCGame page →
Expected team score
~22 pts
Vegas line
LV underdogs by 4.5
Game total
47.5
KC vs RBs
12% fewer points
Last game snaps
16%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.0 points, #43 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- Upside: Scored 11.4 points last game against a typical 5.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 5 carries and 0.3 targets a game.
- Played 16% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 4.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
44MarShawn LloydRB · GB@TBBENCHProjected 4.0 · #44 among RBs4.0
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
4
8
3
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
@TBGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
GB favored by 3
Game total
38.5
TB vs RBs
6% fewer points
Last game snaps
23%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.0 points, #44 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- Averaging 7.7 carries and 2 targets a game.
- Played 23% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 4.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
45Tyrone Tracy Jr.▼RB · NYGvsARIBENCHScored 0.3 last game, typical 8.44.0
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
-1
0
0
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 8.4 a game
This week's matchup
vsARIGame page →
Expected team score
~21 pts
Vegas line
NYG underdogs by 2.5
Game total
44.5
ARI vs RBs
11% more points
Last game snaps
2%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.0 points, #45 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- Scored 0.3 points last game against a typical 8.4 (trending down).
- Averaging 1 carries and 0 targets a game.
- Played 2% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 3 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 4.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
46Emmett JohnsonRB · KC@LVBENCHProjected 4.0 · #46 among RBs4.0
2–7 rangeBENCH
Recent form
8
5
2
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
@LVGame page →
Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
KC favored by 4.5
Game total
47.5
LV vs RBs
1% fewer points
Last game snaps
27%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.0 points, #46 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- Upside: KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.3 carries and 1.3 targets a game.
- Played 27% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 4.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
47Tyjae SpearsQ▼RB · TEN@BALBENCHQuestionable — ankle injury3.0
1–5 rangeBENCH
Recent form
3
8
1
W1W2W3
Dashed line: the usual 5.9 a game
This week's matchup
@BALGame page →
Expected team score
~16 pts
Vegas line
TEN underdogs by 11.5
Game total
42.5
BAL vs RBs
2% more points
Last game snaps
47%
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.0 points, #47 among RBs this week, outside the top 32.
- Questionable — ankle injury.
- Official practice report: Full practice, ankle injury. If active, about 4.0 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- Scored 0.5 points last game against a typical 5.9 (trending down).
- TEN's offense is expected to score only about 16 points, a tough scoring spot.
Projection 3.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Trey SermonIRRB · ATL@NOOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 0.0 a game.
This week's matchup
@NOGame page →
Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
ATL underdogs by 2.5
Game total
47.5
NO vs RBs
6% more points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 0 carries and 0 targets a game.
- No. 3 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Jordan MasonIR▲RB · MINvsMIAOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
12
W1
Dashed line: the usual 6.8 a game
This week's matchup
vsMIAGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
MIN favored by 10
Game total
38.5
MIA vs RBs
22% more points
Last game snaps
45%
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaging 15 carries and 0 targets a game.
- Played 45% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 4 RB on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Jonathon BrooksIRRB · CARvsDETOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUT
Recent form
7
2
W1W2
Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
vsDETGame page →
Expected team score
~24 pts
Vegas line
CAR underdogs by 3.5
Game total
50.5
DET vs RBs
10% fewer points
Last game snaps
30%
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaging 4.5 carries and 1.5 targets a game.
- Played 30% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 4 RB on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →

How we rank

Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.

We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.

The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.

Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.