Fantasy · Week 3 · 2026
Win your week. Start the right players.
Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank
Our top pick at every position
Josh Allen
BUF vs LAC
17.0scored
MUST STARTScored 40.8 last game, typical 20.3
Running back · #1Jahmyr Gibbs
DET vs NYJ
37.9scored
MUST STARTNYJ allow 17% more points to RBs
Wide receiver · #1Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA @ WAS
30.4scored
MUST STARTScored 38 last game, typical 15.8
Tight end · #1Trey McBride
ARI @ SF
12.0scored
MUST STARTProjected 12.6 · #1 among TEs
Kicker · #1Ka'imi Fairbairn
HOU @ IND
5.0scored
MUST STARTProjected 10.6 · #1 among kickers
Defense · #1Seahawks D/ST
SEA @ WAS
1.0scored
MUST STARTWAS expected to score only ~16, a good spot
Your toolkit
Full rankings
Each position has its own page: QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · Flex rankings · K rankings · D/ST rankings
Early season: only 2 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.
1Trey McBrideTE · ARI@SFMUST STARTProjected 12.6 · #1 among TEs12.0
scored · proj 12.6MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 13.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI underdogs by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- SF vs TEs
- 4% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say must start
- Projected 12.6 points, #1 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Averaging 11.5 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 12.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
2Travis Kelce▲TE · KC@MIAMUST STARTScored 20.6 last game, typical 8.212.9
scored · proj 11.3MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs TEs
- 20% more points
- Last game snaps
- 85%
Why we say must start
- Projected 11.3 points, #2 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 20.6 points last game against a typical 8.2 (trending up).
- MIA's defense has allowed 20% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
3George Kittle▲TE · SFvsARIMUST STARTARI allow 25% more points to TEs23.2
scored · proj 11.1MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs TEs
- 25% more points
- Last game snaps
- 48%
Why we say must start
- Projected 11.1 points, #3 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- ARI's defense has allowed 25% more points to TEs than the league average.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 48% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 11.1 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
4Dalton Kincaid▲TE · BUFvsLACMUST STARTScored 19 last game, typical 7.62.8
scored · proj 11.0MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- LAC vs TEs
- 13% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 66%
Why we say must start
- Projected 11.0 points, #4 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 19 points last game against a typical 7.6 (trending up).
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: LAC's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
Projection 11.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
5Dalton Schultz▲TE · HOU@INDMUST STARTScored 20 last game, typical 7.24.5
scored · proj 9.6MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- IND vs TEs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 68%
Why we say must start
- Projected 9.6 points, #5 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 20 points last game against a typical 7.2 (trending up).
- IND's defense has allowed 21% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 11 targets a game.
- Played 68% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
6Brock BowersTE · LV@NOSTARTProjected 9.4 · #6 among TEs22.6
scored · proj 9.4STARTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 10.3 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NO vs TEs
- 10% fewer points
Why we say start
- Projected 9.4 points, #6 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Averaged last season 7.2 targets a game.
Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
7Sam LaPorta▲TE · DETvsNYJSTARTScored 14.2 last game, typical 7.95.9
scored · proj 8.9STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs TEs
- 2% more points
- Last game snaps
- 98%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.9 points, #7 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 14.2 points last game against a typical 7.9 (trending up).
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 7.5 targets a game.
- Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.9 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
8Tyler WarrenTE · INDvsHOUSTARTMore work with Keenan Allen out10.2
scored · proj 8.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- IND underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- HOU vs TEs
- 9% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 89%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.8 points, #8 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +1.7 points).
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 89% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
9T.J. HockensonTE · MIN@TBSTARTMore work with Justin Jefferson out2.1
scored · proj 8.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TB vs TEs
- 32% more points
- Last game snaps
- 69%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.7 points, #9 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Justin Jefferson out: more work to go around (about +2.6 points).
- TB's defense has allowed 32% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
10Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGvsTENSTARTProjected 8.5 · #10 among TEs2.3
scored · proj 8.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 3.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- NYG favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- TEN vs TEs
- League average
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 69%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.5 points, #10 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
11Tucker Kraft▼TE · GBvsATLSTARTProjected 8.1 · #11 among TEs4.6
scored · proj 8.1STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs TEs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 98%
Why we say start
- Projected 8.1 points, #11 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 2.5 points last game against a typical 10.1 (trending down).
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.1 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
12Mike Gesicki▲TE · CIN@PITSTARTScored 16.3 last game, typical 4.111.2
scored · proj 7.9STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 4.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs TEs
- 10% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 33%
Why we say start
- Projected 7.9 points, #12 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 16.3 points last game against a typical 4.1 (trending up).
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 33% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
13Juwan JohnsonTE · NOvsLVFLEXProjected 7.3 · #13 among TEs19.3
scored · proj 7.3FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- NO favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LV vs TEs
- 24% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 53%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.3 points, #13 among TEs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- Concern: LV's defense has allowed 24% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 53% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
14Pat FreiermuthTE · PITvsCINFLEXCIN allow 59% more points to TEs4.1
scored · proj 7.1FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- PIT underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CIN vs TEs
- 59% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 66%
Why we say flex
- Projected 7.1 points, #14 among TEs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- CIN's defense has allowed 59% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Concern: PIT's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 5 targets a game.
- Played 66% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
15Jake Ferguson▲TE · DALvsBALFLEXScored 18.3 last game, typical 7.77.8
scored · proj 6.9FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs TEs
- 18% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 60%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.9 points, #15 among TEs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- Scored 18.3 points last game against a typical 7.7 (trending up).
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: BAL's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
Projection 6.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
16Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLEvsCARFLEXProjected 6.6 · #16 among TEs20.6
scored · proj 6.6FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CLE underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CAR vs TEs
- 1% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 86%
Why we say flex
- Projected 6.6 points, #16 among TEs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- Concern: CLE's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
17Zach ErtzTE · PHI@CHIBENCHProjected 6.5 · 0.1 behind #161.4
scored · proj 6.5BENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 6.8 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CHI vs TEs
- 8% fewer points
Why we say bench
- Projected 6.5 points, #17 among TEs this week, 0.1 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Averaged last season 5.5 targets a game.
Projection 6.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
18AJ BarnerTE · SEA@WASBENCHProjected 6.4 · 0.2 behind #169.4
scored · proj 6.4BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- SEA favored by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- WAS vs TEs
- 39% more points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 80%
Why we say bench
- Projected 6.4 points, #18 among TEs this week, 0.2 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: WAS's defense has allowed 39% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 1.5 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
19Hunter HenryTE · NE@JAXBENCHProjected 6.4 · 0.2 behind #161.0
scored · proj 6.4BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- NE underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- JAX vs TEs
- 6% more points
- Last game snaps
- 91%
Why we say bench
- Projected 6.4 points, #19 among TEs this week, 0.2 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 91% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
20Kyle Pitts▼TE · ATL@GBBENCHScored 2 last game, typical 8.81.0
scored · proj 6.4BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- ATL underdogs by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- GB vs TEs
- 11% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 38%
Why we say bench
- Projected 6.4 points, #20 among TEs this week, 0.2 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 2 points last game against a typical 8.8 (trending down).
- ATL's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 2 targets a game.
- Played 38% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
21Mark AndrewsTE · BAL@DALBENCHProjected 6.2 · 0.4 behind #163.9
scored · proj 6.2BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- DAL vs TEs
- League average
- Last game snaps
- 71%
Why we say bench
- Projected 6.2 points, #21 among TEs this week, 0.4 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: BAL's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 71% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
22Brenton Strange▼TE · JAXvsNEBENCHScored 2.7 last game, typical 6.84.7
scored · proj 5.9BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- NE vs TEs
- 9% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 83%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.9 points, #22 among TEs this week, 0.7 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 2.7 points last game against a typical 6.8 (trending down).
- Averaging 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
23Oronde Gadsden IITE · LAC@BUFBENCHBUF allow 30% fewer points to TEs0.0
scored · proj 5.4BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- LAC underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- BUF vs TEs
- 30% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 44%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.4 points, #23 among TEs this week, 1.2 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- BUF's defense has allowed 30% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Upside: Moves up to No. 1 TE on the depth chart with a teammate above him out.
- Averaging 2 targets a game.
- Played 44% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
24Chig OkonkwoTE · WASvsSEABENCHWAS expected to score only ~16, a tough spot5.0
2–9 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~16 pts
- Vegas line
- WAS underdogs by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- SEA vs TEs
- 11% more points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 56%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.0 points, #24 among TEs this week, 1.6 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- WAS's offense is expected to score only about 16 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
- Played 56% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
25Colston Loveland▼TE · CHIvsPHIBENCHScored 0.8 last game, typical 7.65.1
scored · proj 4.7BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PHI vs TEs
- 45% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 86%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.7 points, #25 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Scored 0.8 points last game against a typical 7.6 (trending down).
- PHI's defense has allowed 45% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
26Evan EngramTE · DENvsLABENCHProjected 4.4 · #26 among TEs0.0
scored · proj 4.4BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DEN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LA vs TEs
- 11% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 52%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.4 points, #26 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
27Greg DulcichTE · MIAvsKCBENCHMIA expected to score only ~18, a tough spot8.0
scored · proj 4.3BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- MIA underdogs by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- KC vs TEs
- 11% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 61%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.3 points, #27 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- MIA's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Upside: De'Von Achane and Caleb Douglas out: more work to go around (about +1 points).
- Averaging 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 61% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.3 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
28Cade OttonTE · TBvsMINBENCHMIN allow 21% fewer points to TEs7.1
scored · proj 4.2BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- TB underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- MIN vs TEs
- 21% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 89%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.2 points, #28 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- MIN's defense has allowed 21% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 89% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
29Khalil DinkinsTE · SFvsARIBENCHProjected 4.2 · #29 among TEs4.2
2–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs TEs
- 25% more points
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.2 points, #29 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Upside: ARI's defense has allowed 25% more points to TEs than the league average.
Projection 4.2 · Low confidence · Full player page →
30Darren Waller▲TE · CAR@CLEBENCHProjected 4.1 · #30 among TEs7.6
scored · proj 4.1BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs TEs
- 11% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 44%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.1 points, #30 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Upside: Scored 16.8 points last game against a typical 7 (trending up).
- Averaging 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 44% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 4.1 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
31Thomas OdukoyaTE · KC@MIABENCHProjected 4.1 · #31 among TEs4.1
2–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs TEs
- 20% more points
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.1 points, #31 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Upside: MIA's defense has allowed 20% more points to TEs than the league average.
Projection 4.1 · Low confidence · Full player page →
32Nick VannettTE · BAL@DALBENCHProjected 3.8 · #32 among TEs3.8
1–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- DAL vs TEs
- League average
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.8 points, #32 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Upside: BAL's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
Projection 3.8 · Low confidence · Full player page →
33Miles KitselmanTE · DETvsNYJBENCHProjected 3.8 · #33 among TEs3.8
1–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs TEs
- 2% more points
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.8 points, #33 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Upside: DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
Projection 3.8 · Low confidence · Full player page →
34Thomas GordonTE · DETvsNYJBENCHProjected 3.8 · #34 among TEs3.8
1–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs TEs
- 2% more points
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.8 points, #34 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Upside: DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
Projection 3.8 · Low confidence · Full player page →
35Cody HardyTE · NYJ@DETBENCHProjected 3.8 · #35 among TEs3.8
1–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NYJ underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- DET vs TEs
- 32% more points
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.8 points, #35 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Upside: DET's defense has allowed 32% more points to TEs than the league average.
Projection 3.8 · Low confidence · Full player page →
36Lake McReeTE · PITvsCINBENCHPIT expected to score only ~20, a tough spot3.8
1–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- PIT underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CIN vs TEs
- 59% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.8 points, #36 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- PIT's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Upside: CIN's defense has allowed 59% more points to TEs than the league average.
Projection 3.8 · Low confidence · Full player page →
37Kenyon SadiqQTE · NYJ@DETBENCHQuestionable — back injury20.0
scored · proj 3.7BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 3.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NYJ underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- DET vs TEs
- 32% more points
- Last game snaps
- 36%
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.7 points, #37 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Questionable — back injury.
- If active, about 5.9 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- Upside: Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out: more work to go around (about +1.5 points).
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
Projection 3.7 · Low confidence · Full player page →
38Dan VillariTE · LA@DENBENCHProjected 3.4 · #38 among TEs3.4
1–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs TEs
- 4% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.4 points, #38 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
Projection 3.4 · Low confidence · Full player page →
39Joshua SimonTE · WASvsSEABENCHWAS expected to score only ~16, a tough spot3.4
1–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~16 pts
- Vegas line
- WAS underdogs by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- SEA vs TEs
- 11% more points
- Wind
- 13 mph
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.4 points, #39 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- WAS's offense is expected to score only about 16 points, a tough scoring spot.
Projection 3.4 · Low confidence · Full player page →
40Michael TriggTE · DALvsBALBENCHBAL allow 18% fewer points to TEs3.3
1–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs TEs
- 18% fewer points
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.3 points, #40 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- BAL's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Upside: DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
Projection 3.3 · Low confidence · Full player page →
41Shawn BowmanTE · ARI@SFBENCHProjected 3.3 · #41 among TEs3.3
1–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI underdogs by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- SF vs TEs
- 4% fewer points
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.3 points, #41 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
Projection 3.3 · Low confidence · Full player page →
42Mitch Van VoorenTE · DALvsBALBENCHBAL allow 18% fewer points to TEs3.3
1–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs TEs
- 18% fewer points
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.3 points, #42 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- BAL's defense has allowed 18% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Upside: DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
Projection 3.3 · Low confidence · Full player page →
43Jack VellingTE · ATL@GBBENCHATL expected to score only ~20, a tough spot3.2
1–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- ATL underdogs by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- GB vs TEs
- 11% fewer points
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.2 points, #43 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- ATL's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
Projection 3.2 · Low confidence · Full player page →
44Chris MyarickTE · LV@NOBENCHProjected 3.2 · #44 among TEs3.2
1–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NO vs TEs
- 10% fewer points
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.2 points, #44 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
Projection 3.2 · Low confidence · Full player page →
45Kenny Fletcher Jr.TE · INDvsHOUBENCHProjected 3.2 · #45 among TEs3.2
1–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- IND underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- HOU vs TEs
- 9% fewer points
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.2 points, #45 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
Projection 3.2 · Low confidence · Full player page →
46Patrick GurdTE · LV@NOBENCHProjected 3.2 · #46 among TEs3.2
1–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NO vs TEs
- 10% fewer points
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.2 points, #46 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
Projection 3.2 · Low confidence · Full player page →
47Joel WilsonTE · TEN@NYGBENCHTEN expected to score only ~18, a tough spot3.1
1–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- TEN underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- NYG vs TEs
- 10% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.1 points, #47 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- TEN's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
Projection 3.1 · Low confidence · Full player page →
48Tre WatsonTE · MIAvsKCBENCHMIA expected to score only ~18, a tough spot3.1
1–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- MIA underdogs by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- KC vs TEs
- 11% fewer points
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.1 points, #48 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- MIA's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
Projection 3.1 · Low confidence · Full player page →
49Qadir IsmailTE · CHIvsPHIBENCHPHI allow 45% fewer points to TEs3.0
1–5 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 3.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PHI vs TEs
- 45% fewer points
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.0 points, #49 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- PHI's defense has allowed 45% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- CHI's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
Projection 3.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
50Gunnar HelmTE · TEN@NYGBENCHTEN expected to score only ~18, a tough spot2.4
scored · proj 3.0BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 3.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- TEN underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- NYG vs TEs
- 10% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 87%
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.0 points, #50 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- TEN's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 87% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 3.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
How we rank
Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.
We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.
The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.
Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.