33.3

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Jake Ferguson playing this week?

No injury designation

Jake Ferguson has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the Houston Texans.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
START#11 TE this weekHigh confidence

Start. Projected 9.3 points, #11 among TEs this week.

Why we say start

  • Projected 9.3 points, #11 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
  • Averaging 3.7 targets a game.
  • Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.

Projected points

9.3

Likely range 3–16: the middle half of outcomes

@ HOU · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 9.9 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~23 pts
Vegas line
DAL underdogs by 3
Game total
48.5
HOU vs TEs
6% fewer points
Last game snaps
69%

All week 4 tight end rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

27

Height

6'5"

Weight

250 lb

College

Wisconsin

Experience

4 seasons

Draft

2022 · Pick #129 (DAL)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

EPA / play

0.147

Success rate

64%

WPA (sum)

-0.04

Opponent adj.

0.005

Plays graded

11

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Separation
4.1
Cushion
3.6
YAC above exp
-0.8
YAC / rec
2.7
Expected YAC
3.6
Air yards share
6.2%
Intended air yds
4.5
Catch %
81.8%
What do these mean?
Separation:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the moment of the catch.
Cushion:
Average distance from the nearest defender at the snap.
YAC above exp:
Yards after catch above what the situation would be expected to produce.
YAC / rec:
Average yards after the catch per reception.
Expected YAC:
Expected yards after the catch, based on tracking data.
Air yards share:
Share of the team's intended air yards that were thrown toward this player.
Intended air yds:
Average depth of the targets thrown his way.
Catch %:
Receptions divided by targets.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

TgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games11972332.212868%0%33.3

Game log

Swipe sideways for all stats →

GameTgtRecYdsTDFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · BAL532319.35169%0%5.6
Wk 2 · WAS4443220.33360%0%92.5