Fantasy · Week 4 · 2026
Win your week. Start the right players.
Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank
Our top pick at every position
Josh Allen
BUF vs NE
24.9proj
MUST STARTBUF expected to score ~28, a strong spot
Running back · #1Jahmyr Gibbs
DET @ CAR
24.9proj
MUST STARTScored 34.4 last game, typical 15.3
Wide receiver · #1Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA vs LAC
17.8proj
MUST STARTScored 25.4 last game, typical 12.7
Tight end · #1George Kittle
SF vs DEN
9.7proj
MUST STARTScored 20.2 last game, typical 8
Kicker · #1Spencer Shrader
IND @ WAS
11.7proj
MUST STARTScored 17 last game, typical 9.9
Defense · #1Vikings D/ST
MIN vs MIA
11.7proj
MUST STARTScored 17 last game, typical 7.1
Your toolkit
Full rankings
Each position has its own page: QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · Flex rankings · K rankings · D/ST rankings
Early season: only 3 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.
1George Kittle▲TE · SFvsDENMUST STARTScored 20.2 last game, typical 89.7
4–17 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 8.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 3
- Game total
- 47.5
- DEN vs TEs
- 1% more points
- Last game snaps
- 85%
Why we say must start
- Projected 9.7 points, #1 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 20.2 points last game against a typical 8 (trending up).
- SF's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.3 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
2Brock Bowers▲TE · LVvsKCMUST STARTScored 17.6 last game, typical 89.0
3–16 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W3Dashed line: the usual 8.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 4.5
- Game total
- 47.5
- KC vs TEs
- 16% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 79%
Why we say must start
- Projected 9.0 points, #2 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 17.6 points last game against a typical 8 (trending up).
- Concern: KC's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 13 targets a game.
- Played 79% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
3Travis Kelce▲TE · KC@LVMUST STARTScored 11.9 last game, typical 6.28.4
3–15 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~26 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 47.5
- LV vs TEs
- 2% more points
- Last game snaps
- 79%
Why we say must start
- Projected 8.4 points, #3 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 11.9 points last game against a typical 6.2 (trending up).
- KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 79% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
4Trey McBrideTE · ARI@NYGMUST STARTProjected 8.3 · #4 among TEs8.3
3–15 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 10.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- NYG vs TEs
- 19% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 91%
Why we say must start
- Projected 8.3 points, #4 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Concern: NYG's defense has allowed 19% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 11.3 targets a game.
- Played 91% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
5Tyler WarrenTE · IND@WASMUST STARTMore work with Keenan Allen out7.8
3–14 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~26 pts
- Vegas line
- IND favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 46.5
- WAS vs TEs
- 53% more points
- Last game snaps
- 94%
Why we say must start
- Projected 7.8 points, #5 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +1 points).
- WAS's defense has allowed 53% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.3 targets a game.
- Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
6Juwan Johnson▲TE · NOvsATLSTARTScored 15.3 last game, typical 5.47.3
3–13 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- NO favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 47.5
- ATL vs TEs
- 9% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 62%
Why we say start
- Projected 7.3 points, #6 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 15.3 points last game against a typical 5.4 (trending up).
- NO's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6.3 targets a game.
- Played 62% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
7Dalton Kincaid▼TE · BUFvsNESTARTBUF expected to score ~28, a strong spot7.0
3–12 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NE vs TEs
- 18% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 67%
Why we say start
- Projected 7.0 points, #7 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: Scored 1.8 points last game against a typical 6.2 (trending down).
- Averaging 5.7 targets a game.
- Played 67% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 7.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
8Harold Fannin Jr.▲TE · CLEvsPITSTARTScored 17.1 last game, typical 6.48.7
scored · proj 6.8STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- CLE underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 38.5
- PIT vs TEs
- 13% more points
- Wind
- 11 mph
- Last game snaps
- 86%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.8 points, #8 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 17.1 points last game against a typical 6.4 (trending up).
- PIT's defense has allowed 13% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Concern: CLE's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
Projection 6.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
9Sam LaPortaTE · DET@CARSTARTDET expected to score ~27, a strong spot6.6
2–12 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~27 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 50.5
- CAR vs TEs
- 11% more points
- Last game snaps
- 92%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.6 points, #9 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- DET's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6.3 targets a game.
- Played 92% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
10Mike Gesicki▲TE · CINvsJAXSTARTScored 9.7 last game, typical 3.16.2
2–11 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W3Dashed line: the usual 3.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~27 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 51.5
- JAX vs TEs
- 5% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 51%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.2 points, #10 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 9.7 points last game against a typical 3.1 (trending up).
- CIN's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 5 targets a game.
- Played 51% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
11Tucker Kraft▼TE · GB@TBSTARTTB allow 23% more points to TEs6.0
2–11 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 3
- Game total
- 38.5
- TB vs TEs
- 23% more points
- Last game snaps
- 76%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.0 points, #11 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- TB's defense has allowed 23% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 2.6 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending down).
- Averaging 5.7 targets a game.
- Played 76% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
12Dalton SchultzTE · HOUvsDALSTARTHOU expected to score ~26, a strong spot5.9
2–10 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~26 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 3
- Game total
- 48.5
- DAL vs TEs
- 2% more points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 54%
Why we say start
- Projected 5.9 points, #12 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- HOU's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 8.3 targets a game.
- Played 54% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
13Jake FergusonTE · DAL@HOUFLEXProjected 5.7 · #13 among TEs5.7
2–10 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 48.5
- HOU vs TEs
- 12% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 69%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.7 points, #13 among TEs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- Averaging 3.7 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
14Kyle Pitts▼TE · ATL@NOFLEXProjected 5.1 · #14 among TEs5.1
2–9 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- ATL underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 47.5
- NO vs TEs
- 6% more points
- Last game snaps
- 59%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.1 points, #14 among TEs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- Concern: Scored 0.5 points last game against a typical 6.5 (trending down).
- Averaging 2 targets a game.
- Played 59% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
15Brenton StrangeTE · JAX@CINFLEXCIN allow 59% more points to TEs4.8
2–9 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 51.5
- CIN vs TEs
- 59% more points
- Last game snaps
- 77%
Why we say flex
- Projected 4.8 points, #15 among TEs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- CIN's defense has allowed 59% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 3.3 targets a game.
- Played 77% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
16AJ BarnerTE · SEAvsLACFLEXProjected 4.6 · #16 among TEs4.6
2–8 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- SEA favored by 7
- Game total
- 42.5
- LAC vs TEs
- 20% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 91%
Why we say flex
- Projected 4.6 points, #16 among TEs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- Concern: LAC's defense has allowed 20% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 91% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
17T.J. HockensonTE · MINvsMIABENCHProjected 4.6 · 0.0 behind #164.6
2–8 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 3.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 10
- Game total
- 38.5
- MIA vs TEs
- 25% more points
- Last game snaps
- 85%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.6 points, #17 among TEs this week, 0.0 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: MIA's defense has allowed 25% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 4.3 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
18Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGvsARIBENCHProjected 4.6 · 0.0 behind #164.6
2–8 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 2.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NYG underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- ARI vs TEs
- 36% more points
- Last game snaps
- 84%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.6 points, #18 among TEs this week, 0.0 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: ARI's defense has allowed 36% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 7.7 targets a game.
- Played 84% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
19Zach Ertz▼TE · PHIvsLABENCHLA allow 16% fewer points to TEs4.3
2–8 rangeBENCHRecent form
W3Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- LA vs TEs
- 16% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 38%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.3 points, #19 among TEs this week, 0.3 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- LA's defense has allowed 16% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Scored 0.9 points last game against a typical 5.1 (trending down).
- Upside: Moves up to No. 1 TE on the depth chart with a teammate above him out.
- Averaging 2 targets a game.
Projection 4.3 · High confidence · Full player page →
20Darren WallerTE · CARvsDETBENCHProjected 4.2 · 0.4 behind #164.2
2–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 50.5
- DET vs TEs
- 56% more points
- Last game snaps
- 51%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.2 points, #20 among TEs this week, 0.4 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: DET's defense has allowed 56% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 4.3 targets a game.
- Played 51% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 4.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
21Colston LovelandTE · CHIvsNYJBENCHProjected 4.1 · 0.5 behind #164.1
2–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NYJ vs TEs
- 2% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 79%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.1 points, #21 among TEs this week, 0.5 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
- Played 79% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
22Hunter Henry▼TE · NE@BUFBENCHScored 0.5 last game, typical 6.33.9
1–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NE underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- BUF vs TEs
- 37% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 70%
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.9 points, #22 among TEs this week, 0.7 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 0.5 points last game against a typical 6.3 (trending down).
- BUF's defense has allowed 37% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 3.3 targets a game.
- Played 70% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 3.9 · High confidence · Full player page →
23Mark AndrewsTE · BALvsTENBENCHProjected 3.8 · 0.8 behind #163.8
1–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 4.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~27 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 11.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TEN vs TEs
- 9% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 52%
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.8 points, #23 among TEs this week, 0.8 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: BAL's offense is expected to score about 27 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 3.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
24Oronde Gadsden II▼TE · LAC@SEABENCHLAC expected to score only ~18, a tough spot3.8
1–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 4.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- LAC underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 42.5
- SEA vs TEs
- 1% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 57%
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.8 points, #24 among TEs this week, 0.8 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- LAC's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Scored 0 points last game against a typical 4.8 (trending down).
- Upside: Moves up to No. 1 TE on the depth chart with a teammate above him out.
- Averaging 2.3 targets a game.
Projection 3.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
25Chig OkonkwoTE · WASvsINDBENCHProjected 3.8 · #25 among TEs3.8
1–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 3.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- WAS underdogs by 4.5
- Game total
- 46.5
- IND vs TEs
- 19% more points
- Last game snaps
- 56%
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.8 points, #25 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Upside: IND's defense has allowed 19% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
- Played 56% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 3.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
26Cade OttonTE · TBvsGBBENCHGB allow 17% fewer points to TEs3.1
1–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 3.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- TB underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 38.5
- GB vs TEs
- 17% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 94%
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.1 points, #26 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- GB's defense has allowed 17% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- TB's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 5.7 targets a game.
- Played 94% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 3.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
27Kenyon SadiqQ▲TE · NYJ@CHIBENCHQuestionable — back injury2.9
0–5 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 2.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- NYJ underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- CHI vs TEs
- 20% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 58%
Why we say bench
- Projected 2.9 points, #27 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Questionable — back injury.
- Official practice report: Limited in practice, back injury. If active, about 4.5 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- CHI's defense has allowed 20% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Upside: Scored 16.5 points last game against a typical 2.5 (trending up).
Projection 2.9 · Low confidence · Full player page →
28Colby ParkinsonQ▼TE · LA@PHIBENCHQuestionable — shoulder (AC Joint) injury1.5
0–3 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- LA favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PHI vs TEs
- 51% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 43%
Why we say bench
- Projected 1.5 points, #28 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Questionable — shoulder (AC Joint) injury.
- Official practice report: Did not practice, knee injury. If active, about 3.5 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- Scored 0 points last game against a typical 5.4 (trending down).
- PHI's defense has allowed 51% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
Projection 1.5 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Connor HulsteinIRTE · NYJ@CHIOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- NYJ underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- CHI vs TEs
- 20% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
–DJ RogersIRTE · DAL@HOUOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 48.5
- HOU vs TEs
- 12% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Jameson GeersIRTE · ARI@NYGOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- NYG vs TEs
- 19% fewer points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Ben YurosekIRTE · MINvsMIAOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 0.2 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 10
- Game total
- 38.5
- MIA vs TEs
- 25% more points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 0.5 targets a game.
- No. 3 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Princeton FantIRTE · DAL@HOUOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 0.0 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 48.5
- HOU vs TEs
- 12% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Luke MusgraveIRTE · GB@TBOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 1.7 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 3
- Game total
- 38.5
- TB vs TEs
- 23% more points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 2.4 targets a game.
- No. 5 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Hayden LargeIRTE · CHIvsNYJOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NYJ vs TEs
- 2% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–McCallan CastlesIRTE · GB@TBOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 3
- Game total
- 38.5
- TB vs TEs
- 23% more points
–Grant CalcaterraIRTE · PHIvsLAOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 1.2 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- LA vs TEs
- 16% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 1.4 targets a game.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–David NjokuIRTE · LAC@SEAOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- LAC underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 42.5
- SEA vs TEs
- 1% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 16%
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 16% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 3 TE on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Ko KieftOUTTE · TBvsGBOUTOut — elbow injury0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
W3Dashed line: the usual 0.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- TB underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 38.5
- GB vs TEs
- 17% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 3%
Why we say out
- Out — elbow injury.
- Played 3% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 3 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Dallas GoedertOUT▼TE · PHIvsLAOUTOut — knee (MCL) injury0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- LA vs TEs
- 16% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 25%
Why we say out
- Out — knee (MCL) injury.
- Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 25% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Carter RunyonIRTE · LVvsKCOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 0.1 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 4.5
- Game total
- 47.5
- KC vs TEs
- 16% fewer points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 0.3 targets a game.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Joe RoyerIRTE · CLEvsPITOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- CLE underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 38.5
- PIT vs TEs
- 13% more points
- Wind
- 11 mph
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Josh OliverIRTE · MINvsMIAOUTOn injured reserve — biceps injury0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 2.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 10
- Game total
- 38.5
- MIA vs TEs
- 25% more points
- Last game snaps
- 41%
Why we say out
- On injured reserve — biceps injury.
- Averaging 1.7 targets a game.
- Played 41% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 3 TE on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–John Michael GyllenborgIRTE · KC@LVOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~26 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 47.5
- LV vs TEs
- 2% more points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 5 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Julian HillIRTE · NE@BUFOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 1.2 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NE underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- BUF vs TEs
- 37% fewer points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 1.8 targets a game.
- No. 5 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Bryson NesbitIRTE · MINvsMIAOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 10
- Game total
- 38.5
- MIA vs TEs
- 25% more points
–Jake TongesIRTE · SFvsDENOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 4.9 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 3
- Game total
- 47.5
- DEN vs TEs
- 1% more points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 4.6 targets a game.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Eli StowersIRTE · PHIvsLAOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- LA vs TEs
- 16% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Will MalloryIRTE · IND@WASOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 0.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~26 pts
- Vegas line
- IND favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 46.5
- WAS vs TEs
- 53% more points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 1 targets a game.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Thomas YassminIRTE · GB@TBOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 3
- Game total
- 38.5
- TB vs TEs
- 23% more points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 5 TE on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
How we rank
Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.
We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.
The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.
Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.