Fantasy · Week 3 · 2026
Win your week. Start the right players.
Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank
Our top pick at every position
Josh Allen
BUF vs LAC
16.5scored
MUST STARTScored 40.8 last game, typical 20.3
Running back · #1Jahmyr Gibbs
DET vs NYJ
34.4scored
MUST STARTNYJ allow 21% more points to RBs
Wide receiver · #1Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA @ WAS
25.4scored
MUST STARTScored 33.5 last game, typical 12.7
Tight end · #1Trey McBride
ARI @ SF
7.5scored
MUST STARTProjected 9.4 · #1 among TEs
Kicker · #1Ka'imi Fairbairn
HOU @ IND
5.0scored
MUST STARTProjected 10.6 · #1 among kickers
Defense · #1Seahawks D/ST
SEA @ WAS
1.0scored
MUST STARTWAS expected to score only ~16, a good spot
Your toolkit
Full rankings
Each position has its own page: QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · Flex rankings · K rankings · D/ST rankings
Early season: only 2 weeks of 2026 data so far, so these projections lean on last season's numbers. Confidence is marked on every player and improves each week.
1Trey McBrideTE · ARI@SFMUST STARTProjected 9.4 · #1 among TEs7.5
scored · proj 9.4MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 10.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI underdogs by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- SF vs TEs
- 6% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 88%
Why we say must start
- Projected 9.4 points, #1 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Averaging 11.5 targets a game.
- Played 88% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 9.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
2Dalton Kincaid▲TE · BUFvsLACMUST STARTScored 15.5 last game, typical 6.21.8
scored · proj 9.1MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF favored by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- LAC vs TEs
- 13% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 66%
Why we say must start
- Projected 9.1 points, #2 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 15.5 points last game against a typical 6.2 (trending up).
- BUF's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: LAC's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
Projection 9.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
3George Kittle▲TE · SFvsARIMUST STARTARI allow 27% more points to TEs20.2
scored · proj 8.8MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs TEs
- 27% more points
- Last game snaps
- 48%
Why we say must start
- Projected 8.8 points, #3 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- ARI's defense has allowed 27% more points to TEs than the league average.
- SF's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 48% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
4Travis Kelce▲TE · KC@MIAMUST STARTScored 16.1 last game, typical 6.211.9
scored · proj 8.8MUST STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.2 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs TEs
- 20% more points
- Last game snaps
- 85%
Why we say must start
- Projected 8.8 points, #4 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Scored 16.1 points last game against a typical 6.2 (trending up).
- MIA's defense has allowed 20% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 8 targets a game.
- Played 85% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 8.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
5Brock BowersTE · LV@NOMUST STARTProjected 7.2 · #5 among TEs17.6
scored · proj 7.2MUST STARTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 8.0 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NO vs TEs
- 15% fewer points
Why we say must start
- Projected 7.2 points, #5 among TEs this week, inside the top 5 we call must-starts.
- Concern: NO's defense has allowed 15% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaged last season 7.2 targets a game.
Projection 7.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
6Tucker Kraft▼TE · GBvsATLSTARTProjected 6.8 · #6 among TEs2.6
scored · proj 6.8STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs TEs
- 3% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 98%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.8 points, #6 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Concern: Scored 1.5 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending down).
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.8 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
7Sam LaPorta▲TE · DETvsNYJSTARTScored 11.2 last game, typical 6.14.4
scored · proj 6.7STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- NYJ vs TEs
- 3% more points
- Last game snaps
- 98%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.7 points, #7 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 11.2 points last game against a typical 6.1 (trending up).
- DET's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 7.5 targets a game.
- Played 98% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.7 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
8Tyler WarrenTE · INDvsHOUSTARTMore work with Keenan Allen out5.7
scored · proj 6.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- IND underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- HOU vs TEs
- 11% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 89%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.6 points, #8 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Keenan Allen out: more work to go around (about +1.2 points).
- Averaging 6 targets a game.
- Played 89% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
9Dalton Schultz▲TE · HOU@INDSTARTScored 14 last game, typical 53.0
scored · proj 6.6STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- IND vs TEs
- 21% more points
- Last game snaps
- 68%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.6 points, #9 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 14 points last game against a typical 5 (trending up).
- IND's defense has allowed 21% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 11 targets a game.
- Played 68% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
10Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGvsTENSTARTProjected 6.5 · #10 among TEs1.3
scored · proj 6.5STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 2.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- NYG favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 37.5
- TEN vs TEs
- League average
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 69%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.5 points, #10 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Averaging 9 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
11T.J. HockensonTE · MIN@TBSTARTMore work with Justin Jefferson out1.1
scored · proj 6.4STARTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 3.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TB vs TEs
- 36% more points
- Last game snaps
- 69%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.4 points, #11 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Justin Jefferson out: more work to go around (about +1.9 points).
- TB's defense has allowed 36% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 69% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
12Mike Gesicki▲TE · CIN@PITSTARTScored 13.8 last game, typical 3.19.7
scored · proj 6.1STARTRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 3.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PIT vs TEs
- 13% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 33%
Why we say start
- Projected 6.1 points, #12 among TEs this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 13.8 points last game against a typical 3.1 (trending up).
- PIT's defense has allowed 13% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 7 targets a game.
- Played 33% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 6.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
13Juwan JohnsonTE · NOvsLVFLEXProjected 5.6 · #13 among TEs15.3
scored · proj 5.6FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- NO favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LV vs TEs
- 24% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 53%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.6 points, #13 among TEs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- Concern: LV's defense has allowed 24% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 5.5 targets a game.
- Played 53% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
14Pat FreiermuthTE · PITvsCINFLEXCIN allow 66% more points to TEs3.1
scored · proj 5.5FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- PIT underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CIN vs TEs
- 66% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 66%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.5 points, #14 among TEs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- CIN's defense has allowed 66% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Concern: PIT's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 5 targets a game.
- Played 66% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
15Jake Ferguson▲TE · DALvsBALFLEXScored 16.3 last game, typical 5.66.3
scored · proj 5.2FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs TEs
- 21% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 60%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.2 points, #15 among TEs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- Scored 16.3 points last game against a typical 5.6 (trending up).
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Concern: BAL's defense has allowed 21% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
Projection 5.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
16AJ BarnerTE · SEA@WASFLEXWAS allow 54% more points to TEs6.9
scored · proj 5.1FLEXRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- SEA favored by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- WAS vs TEs
- 54% more points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 80%
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.1 points, #16 among TEs this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- WAS's defense has allowed 54% more points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 1.5 targets a game.
- Played 80% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
17Hunter HenryTE · NE@JAXBENCHProjected 5.0 · 0.1 behind #160.5
scored · proj 5.0BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- NE underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- JAX vs TEs
- 6% more points
- Last game snaps
- 91%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.0 points, #17 among TEs this week, 0.1 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 91% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
18Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLEvsCARBENCHCLE expected to score only ~20, a tough spot17.1
scored · proj 5.0BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CLE underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CAR vs TEs
- 2% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 86%
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.0 points, #18 among TEs this week, 0.1 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- CLE's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 4.5 targets a game.
- Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 5.0 · High confidence · Full player page →
19Zach ErtzTE · PHI@CHIBENCHCHI allow 12% fewer points to TEs0.9
scored · proj 4.8BENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 5.1 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CHI vs TEs
- 12% fewer points
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.8 points, #19 among TEs this week, 0.3 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- CHI's defense has allowed 12% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaged last season 5.5 targets a game.
Projection 4.8 · High confidence · Full player page →
20Kyle Pitts▼TE · ATL@GBBENCHScored 1.5 last game, typical 6.50.5
scored · proj 4.6BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- ATL underdogs by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- GB vs TEs
- 17% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 38%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.6 points, #20 among TEs this week, 0.5 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 1.5 points last game against a typical 6.5 (trending down).
- GB's defense has allowed 17% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 2 targets a game.
- Played 38% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.6 · High confidence · Full player page →
21Brenton StrangeTE · JAXvsNEBENCHNE allow 12% fewer points to TEs3.2
scored · proj 4.5BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- NE vs TEs
- 12% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 83%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.5 points, #21 among TEs this week, 0.6 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- NE's defense has allowed 12% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 83% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
22Mark AndrewsTE · BAL@DALBENCHProjected 4.4 · 0.7 behind #162.4
scored · proj 4.4BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- DAL vs TEs
- 1% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 71%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.4 points, #22 among TEs this week, 0.7 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Upside: BAL's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a strong scoring spot.
- Averaging 6.5 targets a game.
- Played 71% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.4 · High confidence · Full player page →
23Oronde Gadsden IITE · LAC@BUFBENCHBUF allow 29% fewer points to TEs0.0
scored · proj 4.2BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- LAC underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- BUF vs TEs
- 29% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 44%
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.2 points, #23 among TEs this week, 0.9 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- BUF's defense has allowed 29% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Upside: Moves up to No. 1 TE on the depth chart with a teammate above him out.
- Averaging 2 targets a game.
- Played 44% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 4.2 · High confidence · Full player page →
24Colston Loveland▼TE · CHIvsPHIBENCHScored 0.3 last game, typical 5.93.1
scored · proj 3.7BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PHI vs TEs
- 51% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 86%
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.7 points, #24 among TEs this week, 1.4 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 0.3 points last game against a typical 5.9 (trending down).
- PHI's defense has allowed 51% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 86% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 3.7 · High confidence · Full player page →
25Chig OkonkwoTE · WASvsSEABENCHWAS expected to score only ~16, a tough spot3.5
1–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1Dashed line: the usual 3.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~16 pts
- Vegas line
- WAS underdogs by 8.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- SEA vs TEs
- 9% more points
- Wind
- 13 mph
- Last game snaps
- 56%
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.5 points, #25 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- WAS's offense is expected to score only about 16 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
- Played 56% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 3.5 · High confidence · Full player page →
26Darren Waller▲TE · CAR@CLEBENCHCLE allow 12% fewer points to TEs5.1
scored · proj 3.4BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CAR favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CLE vs TEs
- 12% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 44%
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.4 points, #26 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- CLE's defense has allowed 12% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Upside: Scored 15.3 points last game against a typical 5.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 44% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 3.4 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
27Evan EngramTE · DENvsLABENCHLA allow 15% fewer points to TEs0.0
scored · proj 3.1BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 2.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DEN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LA vs TEs
- 15% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 52%
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.1 points, #27 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- LA's defense has allowed 15% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
- Played 52% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 3.1 · High confidence · Full player page →
28Khalil DinkinsTE · SFvsARIBENCHProjected 3.0 · #28 among TEs3.0
1–5 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- SF favored by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- ARI vs TEs
- 27% more points
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.0 points, #28 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Upside: ARI's defense has allowed 27% more points to TEs than the league average.
Projection 3.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
29Thomas OdukoyaTE · KC@MIABENCHProjected 3.0 · #29 among TEs3.0
1–5 rangeBENCHRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs TEs
- 20% more points
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.0 points, #29 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Upside: MIA's defense has allowed 20% more points to TEs than the league average.
Projection 3.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
30Greg DulcichTE · MIAvsKCBENCHKC allow 13% fewer points to TEs5.5
scored · proj 3.0BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 3.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~18 pts
- Vegas line
- MIA underdogs by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- KC vs TEs
- 13% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 61%
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.0 points, #30 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- KC's defense has allowed 13% fewer points to TEs than the league average.
- MIA's offense is expected to score only about 18 points, a tough scoring spot.
- Averaging 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 61% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 3.0 · Medium confidence · Full player page →
31Kenyon SadiqQTE · NYJ@DETBENCHQuestionable — back injury16.5
scored · proj 2.8BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 2.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NYJ underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- DET vs TEs
- 39% more points
- Last game snaps
- 36%
Why we say bench
- Projected 2.8 points, #31 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Questionable — back injury.
- If active, about 4.5 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- Upside: Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out: more work to go around (about +1.1 points).
- Averaging 3 targets a game.
Projection 2.8 · Low confidence · Full player page →
32Colby ParkinsonQTE · LA@DENBENCHQuestionable — shoulder (AC Joint) injury0.0
scored · proj 1.7BENCHRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 5.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LA underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN vs TEs
- 6% fewer points
- Wind
- 10 mph
- Last game snaps
- 71%
Why we say bench
- Projected 1.7 points, #32 among TEs this week, outside the top 16.
- Questionable — shoulder (AC Joint) injury.
- Official practice report: Did not practice, knee injury. If active, about 4.1 points; the projection is discounted for the chance of not playing.
- Averaging 2 targets a game.
- Played 71% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 1.7 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Connor HulsteinIRTE · NYJ@DETOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NYJ underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 49.5
- DET vs TEs
- 39% more points
–DJ RogersIRTE · DALvsBALOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs TEs
- 21% fewer points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Jameson GeersIRTE · ARI@SFOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI underdogs by 7.5
- Game total
- 48.5
- SF vs TEs
- 6% fewer points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Ben YurosekIRTE · MIN@TBOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 0.2 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TB vs TEs
- 36% more points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 0.5 targets a game.
- No. 3 TE on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Princeton FantIRTE · DALvsBALOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 0.0 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 53.5
- BAL vs TEs
- 21% fewer points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Luke MusgraveIRTE · GBvsATLOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 1.7 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs TEs
- 3% fewer points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 2.4 targets a game.
- No. 5 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Hayden LargeIRTE · CHIvsPHIOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- PHI vs TEs
- 51% fewer points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–McCallan CastlesIRTE · GBvsATLOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- ATL vs TEs
- 3% fewer points
–Grant CalcaterraIRTE · PHI@CHIOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 1.2 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CHI vs TEs
- 12% fewer points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 1.4 targets a game.
- No. 3 TE on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–David NjokuIRTE · LAC@BUFOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 4.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- LAC underdogs by 7
- Game total
- 50.5
- BUF vs TEs
- 29% fewer points
- Wind
- 12 mph
- Last game snaps
- 16%
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaging 4 targets a game.
- Played 16% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart, with a teammate above him out.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Ko KieftOUTTE · TBvsMINOUTOut — elbow injury0.0
scored · proj 0.0OUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 0.0 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- TB underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- MIN vs TEs
- 22% fewer points
Why we say out
- Out — elbow injury.
- No. 3 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Dallas GoedertOUT▼TE · PHI@CHIOUTOut — knee (MCL) injury0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 7.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- CHI vs TEs
- 12% fewer points
- Last game snaps
- 25%
Why we say out
- Out — knee (MCL) injury.
- Averaging 3.5 targets a game.
- Played 25% of the offense's snaps last game.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Carter RunyonIRTE · LV@NOOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 0.1 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NO vs TEs
- 15% fewer points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 0.3 targets a game.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Joe RoyerIRTE · CLEvsCAROUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CLE underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 41.5
- CAR vs TEs
- 2% more points
- Wind
- 12 mph
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 4 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Josh OliverIRTE · MIN@TBOUTOn injured reserve — biceps injury0.0
scored · proj 0.0OUTRecent form
W1W2Dashed line: the usual 2.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TB vs TEs
- 36% more points
- Last game snaps
- 60%
Why we say out
- On injured reserve — biceps injury.
- Averaging 2.5 targets a game.
- Played 60% of the offense's snaps last game.
- No. 2 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–John Michael GyllenborgIRTE · KC@MIAOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- KC favored by 10
- Game total
- 45.5
- MIA vs TEs
- 20% more points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- No. 5 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Julian HillIRTE · NE@JAXOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 1.2 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- NE underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 46.5
- JAX vs TEs
- 6% more points
Why we say out
- On injured reserve.
- Averaged last season 1.8 targets a game.
- No. 5 TE on the depth chart.
Projection 0.0 · Low confidence · Full player page →
–Bryson NesbitIRTE · MIN@TBOUTOn injured reserve0.0
0–0 rangeOUTRecent form
No games yet this season, so this projection rests on last season's 2.5 a game.
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- TB vs TEs
- 36% more points
How we rank
Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.
We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.
The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.
Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.