Fantasy · Week 5 · 2026
Win your week. Start the right players.
Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank
Our top pick at every position
Josh Allen
BUF @ LA
24.8proj
MUST STARTBUF expected to score ~25, a strong spot
Running back · #1Jahmyr Gibbs
DET @ ARI
27.2proj
MUST STARTScored 37.9 last game, typical 17.3
Wide receiver · #1Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA vs SF
22.5proj
MUST STARTScored 30.4 last game, typical 15.8
Tight end · #1Trey McBride
ARI vs DET
14.1proj
MUST STARTDET allow 47% more points to TEs
Kicker · #1Brandon Aubrey
DAL vs TB
11.4proj
MUST STARTDAL expected to score ~29, plenty of drives
Defense · #1Texans D/ST
HOU @ TEN
10.3proj
MUST STARTTEN offense gives defenses 36% more points
Your toolkit
Full rankings
Each position has its own page: QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · Flex rankings · K rankings · D/ST rankings
Defenses swing hard from week to week on sacks, takeaways and touchdowns, so most leagues stream them: pick the best matchup available rather than holding one all year. Scoring is the same in every format, so the scoring switch above doesn't change these.
On bye: CAR, KC
1Texans D/STD/ST · HOU@TENMUST STARTTEN offense gives defenses 36% more points10.3
6–14 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 8.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- HOU favored by 6.5
- Game total
- 39.5
- TEN offense
- 36% more points to defenses
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.3 points, #1 among defenses this week, inside the top 4 we call must-starts.
- TEN's offense has given defenses 36% more fantasy points than the league average.
- TEN's offense is expected to score only about 17 points, a good spot for the defense.
- Averaging 3.7 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.
Projection 10.3 · High confidence · Team page →
2Broncos D/ST▲D/ST · DEN@LACMUST STARTLAC offense gives defenses 39% more points10.2
6–14 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 7.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- DEN favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- LAC offense
- 39% more points to defenses
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.2 points, #2 among defenses this week, inside the top 4 we call must-starts.
- LAC's offense has given defenses 39% more fantasy points than the league average.
- Scored 14 points last game against a typical 7.9 (trending up).
- Averaging 2.7 sacks and 1.3 takeaways a game.
Projection 10.2 · High confidence · Team page →
3Vikings D/ST▲D/ST · MIN@NOMUST STARTScored 17 last game, typical 7.110.2
6–14 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 7.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- MIN favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- NO offense
- 40% more points to defenses
Why we say must start
- Projected 10.2 points, #3 among defenses this week, inside the top 4 we call must-starts.
- Scored 17 points last game against a typical 7.1 (trending up).
- NO's offense has given defenses 40% more fantasy points than the league average.
- Averaging 4.7 sacks and 2 takeaways a game.
Projection 10.2 · High confidence · Team page →
4Patriots D/ST▼D/ST · NEvsLVMUST STARTLV offense gives defenses 51% more points9.0
5–13 rangeMUST STARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- NE favored by 3.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- LV offense
- 51% more points to defenses
Why we say must start
- Projected 9.0 points, #4 among defenses this week, inside the top 4 we call must-starts.
- LV's offense has given defenses 51% more fantasy points than the league average.
- Concern: Scored -1 points last game against a typical 6.8 (trending down).
- Averaging 2.3 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.
Projection 9.0 · High confidence · Team page →
5Jaguars D/ST▲D/ST · JAXvsPHISTARTScored 15 last game, typical 7.78.7
4–12 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 7.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- JAX favored by 3
- Game total
- 44.5
- PHI offense
- 14% fewer points to defenses
Why we say start
- Projected 8.7 points, #5 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 15 points last game against a typical 7.7 (trending up).
- Averaging 2.3 sacks and 2 takeaways a game.
Projection 8.7 · High confidence · Team page →
6Bengals D/STD/ST · CIN@MIASTARTMIA offense gives defenses 35% more points7.9
4–11 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 4.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- CIN favored by 8.5
- Game total
- 46.5
- MIA offense
- 35% more points to defenses
Why we say start
- Projected 7.9 points, #6 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- MIA's offense has given defenses 35% more fantasy points than the league average.
- MIA's offense is expected to score only about 19 points, a good spot for the defense.
- Averaging 3.3 sacks and 1.7 takeaways a game.
Projection 7.9 · High confidence · Team page →
7Browns D/STD/ST · CLE@NYJSTARTNYJ offense gives defenses 24% more points7.7
3–11 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3W4Dashed line: the usual 7.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~20 pts
- Vegas line
- CLE underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- NYJ offense
- 24% more points to defenses
Why we say start
- Projected 7.7 points, #7 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- NYJ's offense has given defenses 24% more fantasy points than the league average.
- Averaging 3 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.
Projection 7.7 · High confidence · Team page →
8Steelers D/STD/ST · PITvsINDSTARTProjected 6.8 · #8 among defenses6.8
3–10 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3W4Dashed line: the usual 6.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- PIT favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- IND offense
- 24% fewer points to defenses
Why we say start
- Projected 6.8 points, #8 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Concern: IND's offense has given defenses 24% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
- Averaging 2.5 sacks and 2 takeaways a game.
Projection 6.8 · High confidence · Team page →
9Seahawks D/ST▼D/ST · SEAvsSFSTARTProjected 6.7 · #9 among defenses6.7
2–10 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 8.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- SEA favored by 3
- Game total
- 47.5
- SF offense
- 43% fewer points to defenses
Why we say start
- Projected 6.7 points, #9 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Concern: SF's offense has given defenses 43% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
- Averaging 2.3 sacks and 1.3 takeaways a game.
Projection 6.7 · High confidence · Team page →
10Ravens D/STD/ST · BAL@ATLSTARTATL offense gives defenses 46% more points6.7
2–10 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- BAL favored by 6
- Game total
- 49.5
- ATL offense
- 46% more points to defenses
Why we say start
- Projected 6.7 points, #10 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- ATL's offense has given defenses 46% more fantasy points than the league average.
- Averaging 2 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.
Projection 6.7 · High confidence · Team page →
11Bears D/ST▲D/ST · CHI@GBSTARTScored 12 last game, typical 6.56.3
2–10 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- CHI underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 45.5
- GB offense
- 20% fewer points to defenses
Why we say start
- Projected 6.3 points, #11 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- Scored 12 points last game against a typical 6.5 (trending up).
- Concern: GB's offense has given defenses 20% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
- Averaging 2.3 sacks and 2 takeaways a game.
Projection 6.3 · High confidence · Team page →
12Saints D/ST▼D/ST · NOvsMINSTARTMIN offense gives defenses 37% more points6.0
2–10 rangeSTARTRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NO underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- MIN offense
- 37% more points to defenses
Why we say start
- Projected 6.0 points, #12 among defenses this week, inside the top 12 we recommend starting.
- MIN's offense has given defenses 37% more fantasy points than the league average.
- Concern: Scored 1 points last game against a typical 6.1 (trending down).
- Averaging 2.3 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.
Projection 6.0 · High confidence · Team page →
13Jets D/STD/ST · NYJvsCLEFLEXCLE offense gives defenses 41% more points5.9
2–9 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 3.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NYJ favored by 1.5
- Game total
- 40.5
- CLE offense
- 41% more points to defenses
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.9 points, #13 among defenses this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- CLE's offense has given defenses 41% more fantasy points than the league average.
- CLE's offense is expected to score only about 20 points, a good spot for the defense.
- Averaging 2.7 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.
Projection 5.9 · High confidence · Team page →
14Chargers D/ST▲D/ST · LACvsDENFLEXScored 14 last game, typical 6.35.6
1–9 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.3 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LAC underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- DEN offense
- 27% fewer points to defenses
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.6 points, #14 among defenses this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- Scored 14 points last game against a typical 6.3 (trending up).
- Concern: DEN's offense has given defenses 27% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
- Averaging 2.3 sacks and 2 takeaways a game.
Projection 5.6 · High confidence · Team page →
15Raiders D/ST▲D/ST · LV@NEFLEXScored 12 last game, typical 4.75.6
1–9 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 4.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- LV underdogs by 3.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- NE offense
- 13% more points to defenses
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.6 points, #15 among defenses this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- Scored 12 points last game against a typical 4.7 (trending up).
- Averaging 3.3 sacks and 3 takeaways a game.
Projection 5.6 · High confidence · Team page →
16Commanders D/ST▲D/ST · WASvsNYGFLEXScored 11 last game, typical 4.85.5
1–9 rangeFLEXRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 4.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~23 pts
- Vegas line
- WAS favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- NYG offense
- 8% more points to defenses
Why we say flex
- Projected 5.5 points, #16 among defenses this week: a flex-range play (straight starts run through #12).
- Scored 11 points last game against a typical 4.8 (trending up).
- Averaging 1.7 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.
Projection 5.5 · High confidence · Team page →
17Cowboys D/ST▼D/ST · DALvsTBBENCHScored -1 last game, typical 3.95.2
1–9 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 3.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- DAL favored by 9.5
- Game total
- 47.5
- TB offense
- 28% more points to defenses
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.2 points, #17 among defenses this week, 0.3 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Scored -1 points last game against a typical 3.9 (trending down).
- Upside: TB's offense has given defenses 28% more fantasy points than the league average.
- Averaging 0.7 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.
Projection 5.2 · High confidence · Team page →
18Lions D/STD/ST · DET@ARIBENCHProjected 5.1 · 0.4 behind #165.1
1–9 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~29 pts
- Vegas line
- DET favored by 5.5
- Game total
- 52.5
- ARI offense
- League average
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.1 points, #18 among defenses this week, 0.4 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Averaging 4 sacks and 1.3 takeaways a game.
Projection 5.1 · High confidence · Team page →
19Rams D/ST▼D/ST · LAvsBUFBENCHBUF offense gives defenses 39% fewer points5.1
1–9 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 7.4 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~28 pts
- Vegas line
- LA favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 52.5
- BUF offense
- 39% fewer points to defenses
Why we say bench
- Projected 5.1 points, #19 among defenses this week, 0.4 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- BUF's offense has given defenses 39% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
- Scored 2 points last game against a typical 7.4 (trending down).
- Averaging 1 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.
Projection 5.1 · High confidence · Team page →
20Giants D/STD/ST · NYG@WASBENCHProjected 4.2 · 1.3 behind #164.2
0–8 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 4.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- NYG underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- WAS offense
- 14% fewer points to defenses
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.2 points, #20 among defenses this week, 1.3 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Averaging 0.3 sacks and 1.7 takeaways a game.
Projection 4.2 · High confidence · Team page →
21Titans D/STD/ST · TENvsHOUBENCHHOU offense gives defenses 19% fewer points4.1
0–8 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 4.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~17 pts
- Vegas line
- TEN underdogs by 6.5
- Game total
- 39.5
- HOU offense
- 19% fewer points to defenses
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.1 points, #21 among defenses this week, 1.4 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- HOU's offense has given defenses 19% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
- Averaging 2 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.
Projection 4.1 · High confidence · Team page →
22Colts D/STD/ST · IND@PITBENCHProjected 4.0 · 1.5 behind #164.0
0–8 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- IND underdogs by 1.5
- Game total
- 44.5
- PIT offense
- League average
Why we say bench
- Projected 4.0 points, #22 among defenses this week, 1.5 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Averaging 2.3 sacks and 0.3 takeaways a game.
Projection 4.0 · High confidence · Team page →
23Eagles D/ST▼D/ST · PHI@JAXBENCHScored 0 last game, typical 7.53.7
0–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 7.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~21 pts
- Vegas line
- PHI underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 44.5
- JAX offense
- 42% fewer points to defenses
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.7 points, #23 among defenses this week, 1.8 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- Scored 0 points last game against a typical 7.5 (trending down).
- JAX's offense has given defenses 42% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
- Averaging 1 sacks and 0 takeaways a game.
Projection 3.7 · High confidence · Team page →
2449ers D/STD/ST · SF@SEABENCHSEA offense gives defenses 16% fewer points3.5
0–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 4.6 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- SF underdogs by 3
- Game total
- 47.5
- SEA offense
- 16% fewer points to defenses
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.5 points, #24 among defenses this week, 2.0 points behind #16, the last one we'd start.
- SEA's offense has given defenses 16% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
- SEA's offense is expected to score about 25 points, a rough spot for the defense.
- Averaging 2 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.
Projection 3.5 · High confidence · Team page →
25Bills D/STD/ST · BUF@LABENCHLA offense gives defenses 18% fewer points3.5
0–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.1 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~25 pts
- Vegas line
- BUF underdogs by 2.5
- Game total
- 52.5
- LA offense
- 18% fewer points to defenses
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.5 points, #25 among defenses this week, outside the top 16.
- LA's offense has given defenses 18% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
- LA's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a rough spot for the defense.
- Averaging 3 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.
Projection 3.5 · High confidence · Team page →
26Falcons D/STD/ST · ATLvsBALBENCHBAL offense gives defenses 24% fewer points3.3
0–7 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 6.7 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~22 pts
- Vegas line
- ATL underdogs by 6
- Game total
- 49.5
- BAL offense
- 24% fewer points to defenses
Why we say bench
- Projected 3.3 points, #26 among defenses this week, outside the top 16.
- BAL's offense has given defenses 24% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
- BAL's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a rough spot for the defense.
- Averaging 1.7 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.
Projection 3.3 · High confidence · Team page →
27Packers D/ST▼D/ST · GBvsCHIBENCHScored -2 last game, typical 4.92.8
0–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 4.9 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- GB favored by 2.5
- Game total
- 45.5
- CHI offense
- 39% fewer points to defenses
Why we say bench
- Projected 2.8 points, #27 among defenses this week, outside the top 16.
- Scored -2 points last game against a typical 4.9 (trending down).
- CHI's offense has given defenses 39% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
- Averaging 2.3 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.
Projection 2.8 · High confidence · Team page →
28Dolphins D/STD/ST · MIAvsCINBENCHCIN expected to score ~28, a rough spot2.5
0–6 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.5 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~19 pts
- Vegas line
- MIA underdogs by 8.5
- Game total
- 46.5
- CIN offense
- 25% more points to defenses
Why we say bench
- Projected 2.5 points, #28 among defenses this week, outside the top 16.
- CIN's offense is expected to score about 28 points, a rough spot for the defense.
- Upside: CIN's offense has given defenses 25% more fantasy points than the league average.
- Averaging 0 sacks and 1 takeaways a game.
Projection 2.5 · High confidence · Team page →
29Buccaneers D/STD/ST · TB@DALBENCHDAL offense gives defenses 49% fewer points1.8
0–5 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 5.8 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~19 pts
- Vegas line
- TB underdogs by 9.5
- Game total
- 47.5
- DAL offense
- 49% fewer points to defenses
Why we say bench
- Projected 1.8 points, #29 among defenses this week, outside the top 16.
- DAL's offense has given defenses 49% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
- DAL's offense is expected to score about 29 points, a rough spot for the defense.
- Averaging 2 sacks and 0.7 takeaways a game.
Projection 1.8 · High confidence · Team page →
30Cardinals D/ST▼D/ST · ARIvsDETBENCHScored -2 last game, typical 40.5
0–4 rangeBENCHRecent form
W1W2W3Dashed line: the usual 4.0 a game
This week's matchup
- Expected team score
- ~24 pts
- Vegas line
- ARI underdogs by 5.5
- Game total
- 52.5
- DET offense
- 42% fewer points to defenses
Why we say bench
- Projected 0.5 points, #30 among defenses this week, outside the top 16.
- Scored -2 points last game against a typical 4 (trending down).
- DET's offense has given defenses 42% fewer fantasy points than the league average.
- Averaging 1.3 sacks and 1.3 takeaways a game.
Projection 0.5 · High confidence · Team page →
How we rank
Each player starts from how he scored per game last season, then we shift toward this season's games as they pile up (a few games in, this season counts as much as last). That gives a base rate for the format you picked.
We then adjust for this week's game: how many points the opponent has allowed to that position compared with the league average, how many points Vegas expects the team to score, wind for passing games, and the injury report. Players ruled out are marked Out. Doubtful and questionable players are discounted, and their confidence drops.
The verdict comes from where he ranks at his position. "Must start" and "Start" are the players you should be starting in a typical 12-team league, "Flex" is a fair depth play, and "Bench" means look elsewhere. The range is the middle half of likely outcomes, so about half of his scores should land inside it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends swing more than quarterbacks. Our scorecard checks all of this against what really happened.
Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Player stats from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0), betting lines from the NFL schedule data, injuries from ESPN's public injury report. Kicker and defense stats come from the same source and scoring is the common default.