Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Deshaun Watson or Geno Smith?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (13.1 vs 12.1). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Deshaun Watson (53%).
Deshaun Watson outscores Geno Smith 53% of the time; Geno Smith 47%.
QB, CLE at NYJ
13.1 projected PPR points
Likely range 7–21 · QB19 this week · Bench
Bench. CLE's offense is expected to score only about 19 points, a tough scoring spot.
QB, NYJ vs CLE
12.1 projected PPR points
Likely range 6–19 · QB21 this week · Bench
Bench. Projected 12.1 points, #21 among QBs this week.
Side by side
| Deshaun Watson | Geno Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| 13.1 | Projected points | 12.1 |
| 6.8 | Floor (a bad day) | 6.3 |
| 20.6 | Ceiling (a big day) | 19.1 |
| NYJ +8% | Matchup | CLE -9% |
| ~19 pts | Team's expected score | ~21 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Steady | Recent form | Steady |
| High | Our confidence | High |
They play in the same game, so their scores tend to rise and fall together. The probability above treats them as independent.
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.