Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Geno Smith or Michael Penix Jr.?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (12.1 vs 12.0). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Geno Smith (50%).
Geno Smith outscores Michael Penix Jr. 50% of the time; Michael Penix Jr. 50%.
QB, NYJ vs CLE
12.1 projected PPR points
Likely range 6–19 · QB21 this week · Bench
Bench. Projected 12.1 points, #21 among QBs this week.
QB, ATL vs BAL
12.0 projected PPR points
Likely range 6–19 · QB22 this week · Bench
Bench. Projected 12.0 points, #22 among QBs this week.
Side by side
| Geno Smith | Michael Penix Jr. | |
|---|---|---|
| 12.1 | Projected points | 12.0 |
| 6.3 | Floor (a bad day) | 6.2 |
| 19.1 | Ceiling (a big day) | 18.9 |
| CLE -9% | Matchup | BAL +5% |
| ~21 pts | Team's expected score | ~23 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Steady | Recent form | Steady |
| High | Our confidence | Medium |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.