Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Deshaun Watson or Jalen Hurts?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (13.1 vs 13.9). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Jalen Hurts (52%).
Deshaun Watson outscores Jalen Hurts 48% of the time; Jalen Hurts 52%.
QB, CLE at NYJ
13.1 projected PPR points
Likely range 7–21 · QB19 this week · Bench
Bench. CLE's offense is expected to score only about 19 points, a tough scoring spot.
QB, PHI at JAX
13.9 projected PPR points
Likely range 7–22 · QB17 this week · Bench
Bench. PHI's offense is expected to score only about 17 points, a tough scoring spot.
Side by side
| Deshaun Watson | Jalen Hurts | |
|---|---|---|
| 13.1 | Projected points | 13.9 |
| 6.8 | Floor (a bad day) | 7.2 |
| 20.6 | Ceiling (a big day) | 21.9 |
| NYJ +8% | Matchup | JAX -7% |
| ~19 pts | Team's expected score | ~17 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Steady | Recent form | Steady |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.