Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Jalen Hurts or Sam Darnold?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (13.9 vs 14.3). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Sam Darnold (51%).
Jalen Hurts outscores Sam Darnold 49% of the time; Sam Darnold 51%.
QB, PHI at JAX
13.9 projected PPR points
Likely range 7–22 · QB17 this week · Bench
Bench. PHI's offense is expected to score only about 17 points, a tough scoring spot.
QB, SEA vs SF
14.3 projected PPR points
Likely range 7–23 · QB15 this week · Bench
Bench. Projected 14.3 points, 1.1 behind #12, the last one we'd start.
Side by side
| Jalen Hurts | Sam Darnold | |
|---|---|---|
| 13.9 | Projected points | 14.3 |
| 7.2 | Floor (a bad day) | 7.4 |
| 21.9 | Ceiling (a big day) | 22.5 |
| JAX -7% | Matchup | SF -2% |
| ~17 pts | Team's expected score | ~24 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Steady | Recent form | Steady |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.