Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Sam Darnold or Tyler Shough?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (14.3 vs 14.4). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Tyler Shough (50%).
Sam Darnold outscores Tyler Shough 50% of the time; Tyler Shough 50%.
QB, SEA vs SF
14.3 projected PPR points
Likely range 7–23 · QB15 this week · Bench
Bench. Projected 14.3 points, 1.1 behind #12, the last one we'd start.
QB, NO vs MIN
14.4 projected PPR points
Likely range 8–23 · QB14 this week · Bench
Bench. MIN's defense has allowed 34% fewer points to QBs than the league average.
Side by side
| Sam Darnold | Tyler Shough | |
|---|---|---|
| 14.3 | Projected points | 14.4 |
| 7.4 | Floor (a bad day) | 7.5 |
| 22.5 | Ceiling (a big day) | 22.7 |
| SF -2% | Matchup | MIN -34% |
| ~24 pts | Team's expected score | ~20 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Steady | Recent form | Steady |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.