Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Caleb Williams or Geno Smith?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (11.8 vs 12.1). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Geno Smith (51%).
Caleb Williams outscores Geno Smith 49% of the time; Geno Smith 51%.
QB, CHI at GB · Questionable — hamstring injury
11.8 projected PPR points
Likely range 0–19 · QB23 this week · Bench
Bench. Questionable — hamstring injury.
QB, NYJ vs CLE
12.1 projected PPR points
Likely range 6–19 · QB21 this week · Bench
Bench. Projected 12.1 points, #21 among QBs this week.
Side by side
| Caleb Williams | Geno Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| 11.8 | Projected points | 12.1 |
| 0.0 | Floor (a bad day) | 6.3 |
| 18.6 | Ceiling (a big day) | 19.1 |
| GB -9% | Matchup | CLE -9% |
| ~24 pts | Team's expected score | ~21 pts |
| Questionable — hamstring injury | Health | Healthy |
| Cold ▼ | Recent form | Steady |
| Low | Our confidence | High |
Caleb Williams: Questionable — hamstring injury. Confirm his status before kickoff.
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.