Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Geno Smith or Justin Herbert?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (12.1 vs 12.2). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Justin Herbert (50%).
Geno Smith outscores Justin Herbert 50% of the time; Justin Herbert 50%.
QB, NYJ vs CLE
12.1 projected PPR points
Likely range 6–19 · QB21 this week · Bench
Bench. Projected 12.1 points, #21 among QBs this week.
QB, LAC vs DEN
12.2 projected PPR points
Likely range 6–19 · QB20 this week · Bench
Bench. Scored 9.6 points last game against a typical 15.9 (trending down).
Side by side
| Geno Smith | Justin Herbert | |
|---|---|---|
| 12.1 | Projected points | 12.2 |
| 6.3 | Floor (a bad day) | 6.3 |
| 19.1 | Ceiling (a big day) | 19.2 |
| CLE -9% | Matchup | DEN -8% |
| ~21 pts | Team's expected score | ~19 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Steady | Recent form | Cold ▼ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.