Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Caleb Williams or Michael Penix Jr.?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (11.8 vs 12.0). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Michael Penix Jr. (50%).
Caleb Williams outscores Michael Penix Jr. 50% of the time; Michael Penix Jr. 50%.
QB, CHI at GB · Questionable — hamstring injury
11.8 projected PPR points
Likely range 0–19 · QB23 this week · Bench
Bench. Questionable — hamstring injury.
QB, ATL vs BAL
12.0 projected PPR points
Likely range 6–19 · QB22 this week · Bench
Bench. Projected 12.0 points, #22 among QBs this week.
Side by side
| Caleb Williams | Michael Penix Jr. | |
|---|---|---|
| 11.8 | Projected points | 12.0 |
| 0.0 | Floor (a bad day) | 6.2 |
| 18.6 | Ceiling (a big day) | 18.9 |
| GB -9% | Matchup | BAL +5% |
| ~24 pts | Team's expected score | ~23 pts |
| Questionable — hamstring injury | Health | Healthy |
| Cold ▼ | Recent form | Steady |
| Low | Our confidence | Medium |
Caleb Williams: Questionable — hamstring injury. Confirm his status before kickoff.
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.