Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Aaron Jones or Jaylen Warren?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (12.7 vs 14.4). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Jaylen Warren (54%).
Aaron Jones outscores Jaylen Warren 46% of the time; Jaylen Warren 54%.
RB, MIN at NO
12.7 projected PPR points
Likely range 6–21 · RB13 this week · Start
Start. Scored 16.8 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending up).
RB, PIT vs IND
14.4 projected PPR points
Likely range 7–23 · RB11 this week · Start
Start. Projected 14.4 points, #11 among RBs this week.
Side by side
| Aaron Jones | Jaylen Warren | |
|---|---|---|
| 12.7 | Projected points | 14.4 |
| 6.1 | Floor (a bad day) | 6.9 |
| 20.6 | Ceiling (a big day) | 23.4 |
| NO +15% | Matchup | IND -2% |
| ~22 pts | Team's expected score | ~23 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Hot ▲ | Recent form | Steady |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.