Fantasy · Week 5 · Start or sit
Aaron Jones or Bhayshul Tuten?
Our week 5 call from the head-to-head model, for PPR scoring. It updates as news and lines move.
Our call
Too close to call
Too close to call on projections (12.7 vs 11.9). If you're ahead this week take the higher floor; if you're chasing points take the higher ceiling. If you have to pick one, the numbers lean Aaron Jones (52%).
Aaron Jones outscores Bhayshul Tuten 52% of the time; Bhayshul Tuten 48%.
RB, MIN at NO
12.7 projected PPR points
Likely range 6–21 · RB13 this week · Start
Start. Scored 16.8 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending up).
RB, JAX vs PHI
11.9 projected PPR points
Likely range 6–19 · RB14 this week · Start
Start. Scored 11.1 points last game against a typical 5.2 (trending up).
Side by side
| Aaron Jones | Bhayshul Tuten | |
|---|---|---|
| 12.7 | Projected points | 11.9 |
| 6.1 | Floor (a bad day) | 5.7 |
| 20.6 | Ceiling (a big day) | 19.3 |
| NO +15% | Matchup | PHI +4% |
| ~22 pts | Team's expected score | ~25 pts |
| Healthy | Health | Healthy |
| Hot ▲ | Recent form | Hot ▲ |
| High | Our confidence | High |
Open this matchup in the start/sit tool to switch to half-PPR or standard, or to say whether you're protecting a lead or need a big game.
Related matchups this week
The chance is a model estimate that treats the two scores as independent. Fantasy scoring is noisy, so even a 70% call loses three times in ten. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. How it works.