83.0

Season grade

How is this calculated?

Is Kenneth Walker III playing this week?

No injury designation

Kenneth Walker III has no injury designation on the latest injury reports for the week 4 game at the Las Vegas Raiders.

Kickoff: Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET.

Checked Oct 3, 7:37 PM ET against the ESPN injury report and the NFL's official weekly report (via nflverse). Injury news can change up to kickoff, so confirm with the team close to game time.

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Our numbers plus what they can't show: injuries around him, role changes, weather, rest and travel, line moves and the latest reporting, all linked.

Fantasy football · Week 4

Our own start/sit calls for every player, with a projected score, the range of likely outcomes and the reasons spelled out. Built from usage, matchup, Vegas lines and injuries. How we rank

Scoring:
PPRHalf PPRStandard
MUST START#6 RB this weekHigh confidence

Must start. Scored 19.3 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending up).

Why we say must start

  • Projected 16.4 points, #6 among RBs this week, inside the top 8 we call must-starts.
  • Scored 19.3 points last game against a typical 8.5 (trending up).
  • KC's offense is expected to score about 26 points, a strong scoring spot.
  • Averaging 21.7 carries and 6 targets a game.
  • Played 73% of the offense's snaps last game.

Projected points

16.4

Likely range 8–27: the middle half of outcomes

@ LV · Game page →

Recent form

W1W2W3

Dashed line: the usual 8.5 a game

This week's matchup

Expected team score
~26 pts
Vegas line
KC favored by 4.5
Game total
47.5
LV vs RBs
2% fewer points
Last game snaps
73%

All week 4 running back rankings →Start or sit tool →How our past calls did →

Age

25

Height

5'9"

Weight

210 lb

College

Michigan State; Wake Forest

Experience

4 seasons

Draft

2022 · Pick #41 (SEA)

Status

ACT

Grade Breakdown

What do these mean?

Why 83.0?

Walker's grade is driven mostly by how much value he added per touch, ranking 11th of 61 backs, including a 60-yard touchdown run against Denver. That easily overcame facing easier-than-average defenses, though a rough week 3 in Miami pulled his overall number down somewhat.

Lifting the grade

  • EPA per touch ranked 11th of 61 backs, the main driver of the grade.
  • 60-yard touchdown run vs Denver on 4th and 1 (+6.6 expected points).
  • 10-yard touchdown run vs Miami on 3rd and 1 (+2.2 expected points).

Holding it back

  • Faced easier-than-average defenses, which knocked expected points off his total.
  • No gain on 4th and 1 vs Miami (-3.6 expected points).
  • 1-yard run vs Denver on 3rd and 3 (-1.7 expected points).

Written by StatGrades AI from this season's play-by-play through week 3. It explains what happened; a grade isn't a forecast (what grades do and don't predict).

EPA / play

0.092

Success rate

48%

WPA (sum)

0.31

Opponent adj.

-0.039

Plays graded

83

Advanced stats

2026 season through Week 3 · tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Rush yds over expected
+141.2
Yds over exp / att
+2.28
Carries over expected
0.5%
Expected rush yds
223.8
Efficiency
3.33
Vs 8+ in the box
26.2%
Time to line
2.78s
WeekRush yds over expectedYds over exp / attVs 8+ in the box
1+101.3+4.4030.4%
2+24.3+1.0629.2%
3+15.6+0.9716.7%
What do these mean?
Rush yds over expected:
Rushing yards above what the blocking and defenders in each carry would be expected to produce.
Yds over exp / att:
Rush yards over expected per carry.
Carries over expected:
Share of carries that gained more than expected.
Expected rush yds:
Yards the carries would be expected to gain on average, based on tracking data.
Efficiency:
Distance traveled per yard gained. Lower means a more direct, north-south runner.
Vs 8+ in the box:
Share of carries against eight or more defenders near the line.
Time to line:
Average seconds from the handoff to reaching the line of scrimmage.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Updated after games are final, not live, and covers QB, RB, WR and TE.

2026 Season Totals

Swipe sideways for all stats →

CarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
3 games65360211822079.215174%0%83.0

Game log

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GameCarRush YdsRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDFum LostFantasySnapsSnap%ST%Grade
Wk 3 · MIA18701231021.33873%0%36.8
Wk 2 · IND2411706610023.86682%0%72.6
Wk 1 · DEN2317313181034.14768%0%93.9